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Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

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Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

dxmnkd316 said:
Did anyone see Trump's interview on Face the Nation this week? He was a completely different candidate. Poised, honest, and very un-Trump-like. It was eerie.
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POTUS was discussing this over the weekend. The consensus was this is Troll Stage Two.

I heard a great quote from an RFC operative about prepping to debate Trump. "Imagine preparing for a NASCAR race in which one of the drivers will be drunk."
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Kepler said:
I think that's true. Trump sucks all the air out of the room, preventing a primary (get it?) challenger to Bush to build momentum. Anything disruptive at this point plays into Bush's hands.
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I think that's Beltway analysis. Who wants to be second place (or 3rd) to a joke candidate? Its like saying Mittens benefits from taking too long to put away Santorum in 2012. Trump's supporters have to go somewhere. One would think Bush is pretty far down on their list, and there's only so many country club types to make up the difference. If they consolidate around someone (Rubio or Cruz since Trump doesn't seem to like Walker), that person becomes the front runner.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Rover said:
I think that's Beltway analysis. Who wants to be second place (or 3rd) to a joke candidate? Its like saying Mittens benefits from taking too long to put away Santorum in 2012. Trump's supporters have to go somewhere. One would think Bush is pretty far down on their list, and there's only so many country club types to make up the difference. If they consolidate around someone (Rubio or Cruz since Trump doesn't seem to like Walker), that person becomes the front runner.
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I think Bush will ride to the nom like Romney did: let each flavor of the month have their turn while he gradually builds insurmountable leads in delegates and money. His establishment credentials open the bank vaults and endorsements, and the ratchet effect keeps him from having to defend his territory. He can win without getting mean or alienating any of the major righty constituencies: he's already the Favorite Son of the neocons, he's a top tier corporate con choice. He lacks the fundies and the TPers but so did Mittens, and he can let Cruz, Walker, and the other fundy clowns tear each other up over those scraps. Come the general those people sure won't vote D.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Kepler said:
I think Bush will ride to the nom like Romney did: let each flavor of the month have their turn while he gradually builds insurmountable leads in delegates and money. His establishment credentials open the bank vaults and endorsements, and the ratchet effect keeps him from having to defend his territory. He can win without getting mean or alienating any of the major righty constituencies: he's already the Favorite Son of the neocons, he's a top tier corporate con choice. He lacks the fundies and the TPers but so did Mittens, and he can let Cruz, Walker, and the other fundy clowns tear each other up over those scraps. Come the general those people sure won't vote D.
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Not only won't they vote D, they won't vote. GOP's been trying to pander to the middle for so long that they forgot about their base.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

FlagDUDE08 said:
Not only won't they vote D, they won't vote. GOP's been trying to pander to the middle for so long that they forgot about their base.
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I have seen no evidence that the theocons will revolt against the RNC. The six months campaign before the election will paint Hillary as the Anti-Christ. They'll be there on election day -- I just wish our grass roots were as dependable.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Kepler said:
I have seen no evidence that the theocons will revolt against the RNC. The six months campaign before the election will paint Hillary as the Anti-Christ. They'll be there on election day -- I just wish our grass roots were as dependable.
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Not only have you not seen it, he has none. The GOP has been lock step with their false idol nominee's the last two cycles. It's time for them to go all in on the real idol.

And speaking of real idols. Look at who's making the debate on Thursday for sure.

Huckabee a.k.a. Capt. Oven.
Carson a.k.a. Obamacare is worse than slavery.
Walker a.k.a. Schools don't need funding, the NBA does.
Bush a.k.a. I want to accelerate the death penalty.
Trump
Ted Cruz a.k.a. I didn't threaten to shut down the government, I just wanted to shut down the government.
Marco Rubio a.k.a. I don't know how old the earth is but my theologian does.
Rand Paul a.k.a. I know a lot of people who have mental disorders after getting vaccinated.

Some real winners in this group. It's so hard to choose who to vote for.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Kepler said:
I have seen no evidence that the theocons will revolt against the RNC. The six months campaign before the election will paint Hillary as the Anti-Christ. They'll be there on election day -- I just wish our grass roots were as dependable.
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You did not see election results from 2008 or 2012.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Kepler said:
POTUS was discussing this over the weekend.
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Took me a second to realize you weren't talking about the actual guy... I was thinking, "Why in the world would Obama.....? Oh."
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

FlagDUDE08 said:
You did not see election results from 2008 or 2012.
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The cross-tabs indicate white evangelical turnout of eligible voters is consistently 5% over the national average. They make up 25% of the electorate and vote 80% Republican. In other words, if white evangelicals dropped just to the national average, the Republicans would lose enough EV for Dubya to have lost in 2000 and 2004.

The Taliban aren't holding the GOP back; they're the only thing keeping the GOP afloat nationally. So those two are married -- neither can pull out without committing suicide.

There's no well-defined equivalent on the Dem side, but the closest analogy would be the entire non-white electorate. The numbers are probably roughly close: 25% of the electorate and 80% Dem. But the difference is that bloc has traditionally turned out less than the national average. One reason why the GOP is desperate to depress minority turnout is if the non-white electorate rose just to the national average, the Democrats would probably gain about 2% (roughly equivalent to what the GOP would lose in the example above). Hence the headlong rush to incarcerate blacks and drive Hispanics underground.

Neither side even thinks about a serious appeal to try to cleave off some of the opponent's base.
 
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Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Kepler said:
I have seen no evidence that the theocons will revolt against the RNC. The six months campaign before the election will paint Hillary as the Anti-Christ. They'll be there on election day -- I just wish our grass roots were as dependable.
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You honestly think if you are right and Jebya wins the nom that the Left Fundies wont be out in full force? They wont stay home if he is involved just cause of his name same for the Righties with Clinton. Turnout wont be an issue.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Handyman said:
You honestly think if you are right and Jebya wins the nom that the Left Fundies wont be out in full force? They wont stay home if he is involved just cause of his name same for the Righties with Clinton. Turnout wont be an issue.
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I think it will be the normal turnout on both sides for a general election year, so we'll be fine.

I just wish our numbskulls would figure out there's more to politics than the presidency, and start rolling up state, local and Congressional wins. The GOP grassroots are excellent at that, and it really shows in state leg and district drawings.

If we had our presidential year turnout in off-cycle elections, we wouldn't be fighting for majorities, but supermajorities.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Kepler said:
I think it will be the normal turnout on both sides for a general election year, so we'll be fine.

I just wish our numbskulls would figure out there's more to politics than the presidency, and start rolling up state, local and Congressional wins. The GOP grassroots are excellent at that, and it really shows in state leg and district drawings.

If we had our presidential year turnout in off-cycle elections, we wouldn't be fighting for majorities, but supermajorities.
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That I agree with...though to be fair the dems in many local elections put up horrid candidates.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

LynahFan said:
Took me a second to realize you weren't talking about the actual guy... I was thinking, "Why in the world would Obama.....? Oh."
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It's late and I can't figure out what POTUS could possible mean besides Obama.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

I would predict a slightly depressed turnout out of righties if Jebbers! is the nominee. The notion that they'll all turn out is to assume they think rationally. I don't think the slightly lower turnout will be decisive, but after getting 2 mushy moderates in a row supposedly, giving a 3rd isn't going to make these people happy. Bush is now sinking into 3rd place in some polls and a circus clown is up double on him nationally for the nomination. I don't care how much money he soaks up, the people who should be supporting him just don't like the dude. He and Scott Walker have proven thus far, and its still early, to be having trouble breaking away from the pack.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Rover said:
I would predict a slightly depressed turnout out of righties if Jebbers! is the nominee. The notion that they'll all turn out is to assume they think rationally. I don't think the slightly lower turnout will be decisive, but after getting 2 mushy moderates in a row supposedly, giving a 3rd isn't going to make these people happy. Bush is now sinking into 3rd place in some polls and a circus clown is up double on him nationally for the nomination. I don't care how much money he soaks up, the people who should be supporting him just don't like the dude. He and Scott Walker have proven thus far, and its still early, to be having trouble breaking away from the pack.
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And here i was thinking that if it's a Clinton-Bush election, we'd see depressed turnout on both sides. Nobody's really excited for either candidate, it's more like people are resigning themselves to the choices. If Trump gets on the ticket, expect low GOP turnout with high Dem turnout as only the base will really want Trump, but every liberal out there will want to crush him like Oprah does to a bag of Oreos.
 
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