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Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools?

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Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Handyman said:
Name your price...none of the Clown Show are going to get independents to flip sides at best they stay home. If it comes down to the bases I will take the Dems right now over the GOP.
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My point is election momentum doesn't exist. Obama won because he could mobilize, not because of the iron law of demographics. The demographics are a great multiplier if you motivate voters -- there are quite simply far more Democratic voters to motivate -- but it don't mean a thing if you aint got that swing.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
My point is election momentum doesn't exist. Obama won because he could mobilize, not because of the iron law of demographics. The demographics are a great multiplier if you motivate voters -- there are quite simply far more Democratic voters to motivate -- but it don't mean a thing if you aint got that swing.
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And who exactly is going to be motivated by the LOCK?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
It's not nearly as difficult as that analysis makes it seem. The Republicans need a pendulum swing relative to the Democrats of 3.8% to reach 50/50. How many times has the out party increased its percentage by that much since 1940?

1952 R 9.9%
1960 D 6.6
1968 R 4.7
1976 D 12.8
1988 D 5.1 (lost)
1996 R 3.6 (lost)
2000 R 7.1
2008 D 5.7

So this unassailable lead by the incumbent party has been blown 8 times in the last 16 elections. It can't happen... until it does.
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A good analysis but dated. What happened in 1952 has no relevance to today, much like what happened in 1980 has none either.

The biggest difference IMHO is that people don't tend to switch sides anymore. That portion of the electorate has dwindled. People vote their "team" rightly or wrongly and the elections nowadays become base turnout affairs. This is the result of a polarized electorate. Ike, or Reagan may have had a tremendous ability to get voters to cross party lines for them. Reagan as a rebuff of Carter's troubles and because Carter won a lot of disgust with post-Watergate votes in his winning campaign. Ike was universally known as the winning general of WW2. I will say that 2004 is the best blueprint thus far for the GOP though. Try like hell to get that Hispanic vote up, lock down FL and the rest of the South early and then go play on Dem turf with a huge warchest.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Rover said:
Trump is right. You could have blasted every one of those guys with some of their past commentary and had a field day. Has anybody ever read some Ben Carson quotes. :eek:
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Yes, yes I have. Another true believer.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Rover said:
Trump is right. You could have blasted every one of those guys with some of their past commentary and had a field day. Has anybody ever read some Ben Carson quotes. :eek:
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On AP US History: "I think most people, when they finish that course, they'd be ready to go sign up for ISIS." -Dr. Ben Carson

I took it in Catholic school and I'd like to think I turned out OK. ;)

Of course, by his standards, that's pretty mild. You hear the one about calling dying veterans who can't get help from the VA "a gift from God" for exposing gov't involvement in healthcare? :eek:
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

ScoobyDoo said:
And who exactly is going to be motivated by the LOCK?
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This is kinda my whole point.

I find Hillary to be a dead fish; others say she will motivate women (perhaps other dead fish women? I dunno -- there are plenty of them). Just having the looming spectre of Republican idiocy is not enough, if it were, Dubya would have been a one term president. The last time the Democrats got a president elected just because they loathed the other guy was 1964. They need to fall in love.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
This is kinda my whole point.

I find Hillary to be a dead fish; others say she will motivate women (perhaps other dead fish women? I dunno -- there are plenty of them). Just having the looming spectre of Republican idiocy is not enough, if it were, Dubya would have been a one term president. The last time the Democrats got a president elected just because they loathed the other guy was 1964. They need to fall in love.
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Yeah, well, it's been my point for a while but I keep getting "LOCK" pushed down my throat.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Rover said:
Trump is right. You could have blasted every one of those guys with some of their past commentary and had a field day. Has anybody ever read some Ben Carson quotes. :eek:
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He's right that Roger Ailes sent down word to get Trump. That was obvious from the very first question -- that panel was a lynch mob and Trump was their target.

Which is why Trump should have completely cleaned up this week. The right loves a victim -- the wingnut model at this point is to grift a living off victimhood while all the while decrying victimhood -- it's a perfect scam. But he screwed the pooch by attacking Kelly. I will say if it was a trap it was executed flawlessly, and as Lee Atwater burns on a spit in eternity he also smiles.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

ScoobyDoo said:
Yeah, well, it's been my point for a while but I keep getting "LOCK" pushed down my throat.
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Except the only person who is doing that is Rover. The rest of us are saying she's going to win unless she screws up. That's not a lock.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

unofan said:
Because she almost ran that same company into the ground and got ousted while receiving a golden parachute that the 30,000 workers she laid off could only dream of?
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Sounds to me like she's qualified to run Washington, the Federal government, as well as those there trying today.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
Except the only person who is doing that is Rover. The rest of us are saying she's going to win unless she screws up. That's not a lock.
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No, Handy pretty says she's a lock too.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
He's right that Roger Ailes sent down word to get Trump. That was obvious from the very first question -- that panel was a lynch mob and Trump was their target.
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I'd read the paranoia blogs spouting that from August 3-5. Then I heard the first question and realized ... it wasn't paranoia.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

The Sicatoka said:
I'd read the paranoia blogs spouting that from August 3-5. Then I heard the first question and realized ... it wasn't paranoia.
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It was amazing, wasn't it? I was watching with DMK, and she and I looked at each other like, "wow; not even gonna pretend, eh?"
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Mrs. C is PIT in last night's LAD/PIT game at the start of the 8th inning: Up seven runs. Don't screw up and you get the W and the sweep.

But honestly, who else do the D's have out there right now? Just as Ben Carson hopes to be the Fox mirror to MSNBC's Rev. Al, Bernie is the D's "Donald" (minus the lhasa Apso headpiece).
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

The Sicatoka said:
Bernie is the D's "Donald" (minus the lhasa Apso headpiece).
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No, Bernie is either the Dems' Rand Paul or Mike Huckabee, depending on whether you think libertarians or theocons are the better analogy for Unapologetic Liberals. In terms of numbers in the base, the latter is probably the better analogy -- there are far more liberals among the Dem foot soldiers than among their party functionaries, something also true of the Fundies although probably true of the libertarians too. Certainly, all three are religious causes as much as coherent intellectual theories, and all three have really weird psycho-sociological pressures pushing people both into them and reacting against them.

The things Bernie says he means -- he just doesn't care about affect. Trump is exactly the opposite.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
It was amazing, wasn't it? I was watching with DMK, and she and I looked at each other like, "wow; not even gonna pretend, eh?"
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Amazing is that The Donald handled it (meh, < shrug > ) reasonably when hit with it live, but then completely crapped himself later on CNN.
 
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