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Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools?

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Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
But in the general election the clown show won't be running; it will be Jeb! plus whatever token mannequin they prop up next to him plus the lawyers, career politicians and billionaires who actually run the Republican party (as distinct from the lawyers, career politicians and billionaires who actually run the Democratic party). The GOP knows to every thing there is a season: a time to say stupid things to get the base excited, and a time to put the crazies back in the attic and run a centrist campaign so they can keep The Scam going.

The Dems are not a lock. We are never farther than a bad campaign away from the triumph of the orcs. As 2000 taught, the price of freedom is eternal vigilance.
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2004 was even more startling.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

unofan said:
Ah, you're a BSABSVR person, otherwise known as a Fark Independent(tm). Got it.
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I don't look party, I look person, policy, and principles. Haven't seen any of those from either side in a long, long time. I bet I've voted for more D's in the last election than you've voted for R's in your life. Sure, mainly state offices, but just the same it was person, policy, and principles.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

ScoobyDoo said:
How he got elected in Wisconsin three times will NEVER cease to amaze me.
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It's. Wisconsin.

Next question.


PS - The 'sconnies should be responding to the 'sotas with two words: Jesse. Ventura.
 
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Kepler said:
He's right that Roger Ailes sent down word to get Trump. That was obvious from the very first question -- that panel was a lynch mob and Trump was their target.

Which is why Trump should have completely cleaned up this week. The right loves a victim -- the wingnut model at this point is to grift a living off victimhood while all the while decrying victimhood -- it's a perfect scam. But he screwed the pooch by attacking Kelly. I will say if it was a trap it was executed flawlessly, and as Lee Atwater burns on a spit in eternity he also smiles.
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Everybody loves a victim. Most of the "news" is a search for a victim. And who went ape poop over a lion - Dems or GOP as opposed to parts on the cutting room floor?
 
The Sicatoka said:
I don't look party, I look person, policy, and principles. Haven't seen any of those from either side in a long, long time. I bet I've voted for more D's in the last election than you've voted for R's in your life. Sure, mainly state offices, but just the same it was person, policy, and principles.
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True story: while I've never voted straight ticket, I voted for way more republicans than democrats though 2006. I even admit to voting for Dubya twice. I was even going to vote McCain until he made his VP pick.

My younger, less wise self believed there were such things as intellectual conservatives at those times. Palin and the Tea Party cleared me up on that front.

So yeah, you're way off on that one.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
You want this because you think we'll win 48 states.

I don't think you have considered the Other Possibility.

Let's say 30% of the country is absolutely, balls to the wall, smoking crayons level insane. That 30% right there, with nobody else, is probably enough to rack up 100 EV in the Usual Places.

Now let's say 30% of the country doesn't really pay attention to anything but the letter after the name. They don't listen to debates, they don't read position papers, heck, maybe they don't read. Assuming a 50/50 split, that's 15% more, and now you're talking about 200 EV.

You wanna risk everything on that last 69 EV? Cuz I don't.
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Kepler said:
I'm not trying to do a Chicken Little act (will the Scooby please stand up?), I'm saying that in this environment a doorknob with either letter after its name starts with nearly enough EV for election, and the Dems are much more vulnerable than they look -- in 2012 out of the closest 10 states Obama took 9 of them. That means a fairly slight perturbation (say, the 16,000th Clinton scandal actually has some legs) could swing an election.

Here are last time's top 10:



The Hillary Election is particularly volatile because her likelihood of a double fault is so much higher than her opponent's likelihood of generating a wave. You wanted to know how the 2016 Republican can flip key states? Just stand there and wait for the She Beast to implode.
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As usual, Kep is right.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

unofan said:
Because she almost ran that same company into the ground and got ousted while receiving a golden parachute that the 30,000 workers she laid off could only dream of?
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Remember how she tried to get a computer company out of the computer business?
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Kepler said:
But in the general election the clown show won't be running; it will be Jeb! plus whatever token mannequin they prop up next to him plus the lawyers, career politicians and billionaires who actually run the Republican party (as distinct from the lawyers, career politicians and billionaires who actually run the Democratic party). The GOP knows to every thing there is a season: a time to say stupid things to get the base excited, and a time to put the crazies back in the attic and run a centrist campaign so they can keep The Scam going.

The Dems are not a lock. We are never farther than a bad campaign away from the triumph of the orcs. As 2000 taught, the price of freedom is eternal vigilance.
Click to expand...

Like I said name your price.

For the people saying Hillary wont win who is going to beat her? Bernie aint catching her (sadly as i am his biggest fan) and Biden isnt going to stop her so she will get the Nom. What Obama state is she losing and why? The Doomsayers (like Kep) keep avoiding that question. Come on Kep, who is Jeb flipping and why?

Here is the Map Just to be fair let's say Jeb flips Florida back red. That gets Dubya the Lesser to 235. We know the Left Coast is staying Blue and we know NY and most of the East Coast into NE will as well also Minnesota, Wisconsin and Illinois arent flipping nor is Michigan most likely. (they didnt vote for Dubya, McCain or Mitt) As long as Hillary (or any Dem) can hold Pennsylvania, Virginia or Ohio they wont lose.

Unless Jeb can recreate Dubya's electoral map he will just be Mitt with worse hair and even dumber comments.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

ScoobyDoo said:
Walker was a lock to the GOP nod until he spazzed and blew it. His performance at the debate was more proof that he has idiots running his campaign. How he got elected in Wisconsin three times will NEVER cease to amaze me. I still consider him the most dangerous politician in America.

As for the Dems being a lock. Too funny. Watch Hillary blow it.
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To me, I wouldn't use the word "lock" unless I can look at the situation and say, "This candidate is going to win EVEN IF they completely spazz and are caught with both a dead girl and a live boy." Anything else requires caveats, and is therefore by definition not a lock.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

The first non-Trump meme of the 2016 cycle?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Watch this video and sign this petition if you know that a human life won’t become a donkey or a cat:
<a href="https://t.co/neRez6ule9">https://t.co/neRez6ule9</a></p>— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) <a href="https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/630831040592936960">August 10, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

Spartanforlife4 said:
The first non-Trump meme of the 2016 cycle?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Watch this video and sign this petition if you know that a human life won’t become a donkey or a cat:
<a href="https://t.co/neRez6ule9">https://t.co/neRez6ule9</a></p>— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) <a href="https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/630831040592936960">August 10, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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I believe the only word I need to say here is "Anthrocon."
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

And here I thought Rubio was supposed to be the moderate one with a brain, who would appeal to younger, browner, independent-minded voters.

My mistake.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
And here I thought Rubio was supposed to be the moderate one with a brain, who would appeal to younger, browner, independent-minded voters.

My mistake.
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You expect a major competitive candidate in today's GOP to be more moderate than Rubio is acting?

No, sorry, he's about as moderate as the GOP gets.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

ScoobyDoo said:
You expect a major competitive candidate in today's GOP to be more moderate than Rubio is acting?

No, sorry, he's about as moderate as the GOP gets.
Click to expand...

Kasich. But he's not going to win, so that's a moot point.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

I, Hillary Rodham Clinton, declare under penalty of perjury that the following is true and correct:

1. While I do not know what information may be “responsive” for purposes of this law suit, I have directed that all my e-mails on clintonemail.com in my custody that were or potentially were federal records to be provided to the Department of State, and on information and belief, this has been done.
2. As a result of my directive, approximately 55,000 pages of these emails were produced to the Department on December 5, 2014.
3. Cheryl Mills did not have an account on clintonemail.com. Huma Abedin did have such an account which was used at times for government business.

Parse this for where perjury is not perjury.
 
Re: Campaign 2016 - A Trump l'oeil? Kepler's Laws of Election Motions? Ship of Fools

ScoobyDoo said:
You expect a major competitive candidate in today's GOP to be more moderate than Rubio is acting?

No, sorry, he's about as moderate as the GOP gets.
Click to expand...

Kinda fun isnt it :)
 
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