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Business, Economics, and Taxes: Eat Cereal for Dinner

Handyman said:
Oh there is a lot of "its not really that bad" going on out there because as of now it really hasn't hit. Hell even all of the federal layoffs and freezes havent really started to domino effect yet. By the time the April Jobs report hits though things will likely be in a full on recessive swing.
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I mean, we have what 2-3 weeks until a government shutdown? The crash is coming.
 
Jimjamesak said:
I think a lot of people are burying their heads in the sand about the impending economic disaster. I mentioned to a coworker that I wanted to change shifts to one that would be more reliable for hours and was hit with a very perplexed “why?” I then mentioned the possibility of layoffs and was hit with a “oh that’ll never happen, things won’t get that bad!”

And mind you, this person is not a Dump supporter. The Dump supporters are straight up huffing copium.
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The Dumpies at my work are celebrating "all the billions they have already saved the US."

They really don't understand how anything works.
 
Kepler said:
I'm as cynical as anyone but even I have a hard time believing a trifecta government will shut down. That would be Theresa May-level political incompetence.
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I think a shutdown is a lock...and it is going to be a long one. There is really no way around it anymore. Mikey needs to cut everything Trump and Musk want if he wants to stay Speaker. That means trillions from entitlements. The Dems may be pathetic wussies but they won't go along with it or the Party is officially dead. Plus you have some GOPers already feeling pressure to not allow those cuts by their voters.

Honestly a shutdown is likely the only thing that keeps the economy on life support. If a budget passes you are going to see consumer confidence crater, unemployment skyrocket and Inflation become an even bigger issue. The cascade effect of cutting jobs and the safety net will line lead to a huge amount of defaults by the summer and there will be food shortages to coincide with everything else. The private sector will be in full panic mode and the public sector will be a chitshow.

Unless someone wakes MAGA up and quick we could be hitting a serious depression and I don't see people taking well to that. Violence and chaos will be a major problem...
 
IMO, a shutdown plays into Trump/Musk's plan, not that either really has one. No better way to cut employees than have none of them show up because they won't get paid. Also neuters congress allowing Trump to run willy-nilly.
 
That is going to happen no matter what...the Dems have one card to play and obstruction is it. If they negotiate a deal they might as well retire because no one will vote for them to retake power.

If there are Midterms and the Dems want any shot at winning they need to show a spine on the budget and be willing to burn it all down to save entitlements. If they let Hakeem Jeffries twiddle his thumbs and give (not so) menacing speeches they will get murdered and Democracy with them.

Even Republican voters are against most of the cuts because it affects them this is Politics 101 crap. If Trump wants his cuts make the GOP force them. Don't hand them the knife. And if people whine about a shutdown remind them the pain was coming either way.
 
Jimjamesak said:
I think a lot of people are burying their heads in the sand about the impending economic disaster. I mentioned to a coworker that I wanted to change shifts to one that would be more reliable for hours and was hit with a very perplexed “why?” I then mentioned the possibility of layoffs and was hit with a “oh that’ll never happen, things won’t get that bad!”

And mind you, this person is not a Dump supporter. The Dump supporters are straight up huffing copium.
Click to expand...

You can't fire tens of thousands of employees and keep it contained. It's one of the reasons 2022 was such a shitshow across the economy. That many tech workers out of jobs meant that much of the economy stopped working.

The same thing is going to happen with government employees. Except instead of fabulously wealthy software engineers with both personal and government safety nets, you're going to have a much broader mix of workers and much greater exposure for the working and middle classes. Most of their income goes back into the actual economy.

Plus we have the EU, China, Canada, and Mexico pissed as hell and trade is slowing.

The only way to fix this is to invent a Time Machine. The damage is done. Even if we do a full policy reversal those relationships are forever changed.

It's probably good that the EU will be more of an equal partner. But it's bad for us as Americans and the 100 years of wealth accumulation we've enjoyed.
 
Handyman said:
Oh there is a lot of "it's not really that bad" going on out there because as of now it really hasn't hit. Hell even all of the federal layoffs and freezes havent really started to domino effect yet. By the time the April Jobs report hits though things will likely be in a full on recessive swing.
Click to expand...
It's going to be bad bad.

By April we'll know whether they're falsifying jobs reports. That's when we find out what happens when no one trusts treasuries anymore and that's a very ugly world to wake up to.
 
Kepler said:
I'm as cynical as anyone but even I have a hard time believing a trifecta government will shut down. That would be Theresa May-level political incompetence.
Click to expand...
You give the true believers way, way too much credit.

Plus they're going to need to find enough GOP who would kill the filibuster for the debt ceiling. Unless the Dems break ranks. Which... you know.
 
aparch said:
IMO, a shutdown plays into Trump/Musk's plan, not that either really has one. No better way to cut employees than have none of them show up because they won't get paid. Also neuters congress allowing Trump to run willy-nilly.
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It's the only weapon we have so we must use it to gain concessions. And if musk being fired permanently isn't part of that, then it should be a nonstarter.
 
Handyman said:
I think a shutdown is a lock...and it is going to be a long one. There is really no way around it anymore. Mikey needs to cut everything Trump and Musk want if he wants to stay Speaker. That means trillions from entitlements. The Dems may be pathetic wussies but they won't go along with it or the Party is officially dead. Plus you have some GOPers already feeling pressure to not allow those cuts by their voters.

Honestly a shutdown is likely the only thing that keeps the economy on life support. If a budget passes you are going to see consumer confidence crater, unemployment skyrocket and Inflation become an even bigger issue. The cascade effect of cutting jobs and the safety net will line lead to a huge amount of defaults by the summer and there will be food shortages to coincide with everything else. The private sector will be in full panic mode and the public sector will be a chitshow.

Unless someone wakes MAGA up and quick we could be hitting a serious depression and I don't see people taking well to that. Violence and chaos will be a major problem...
Click to expand...
I have a feeling that Musk is going to be the fall guy for all of this. Dump and cronies get their depression to gather more wealth, the MAGA proles start to get violent, Dump blames it all on Musk, arrests Musk and tries him for "treason", Musk goes to the wall to satisfy MAGA's bloodlust and Dump gets to parade as a "hero" to MAGA for "saving the economy" by killing the guy "responsible".
 
dxmnkd316 said:
You can't fire tens of thousands of employees and keep it contained. It's one of the reasons 2022 was such a shitshow across the economy. That many tech workers out of jobs meant that much of the economy stopped working.

The same thing is going to happen with government employees. Except instead of fabulously wealthy software engineers with both personal and government safety nets, you're going to have a much broader mix of workers and much greater exposure for the working and middle classes. Most of their income goes back into the actual economy.

Plus we have the EU, China, Canada, and Mexico pissed as hell and trade is slowing.

The only way to fix this is to invent a Time Machine. The damage is done. Even if we do a full policy reversal those relationships are forever changed.

It's probably good that the EU will be more of an equal partner. But it's bad for us as Americans and the 100 years of wealth accumulation we've enjoyed.
Click to expand...
The private sector will be shedding like a husky in spring and sadly it’s way too late as you mentioned
 
dxmnkd316 said:
You can't fire tens of thousands of employees and keep it contained. It's one of the reasons 2022 was such a shitshow across the economy. That many tech workers out of jobs meant that much of the economy stopped working.

The same thing is going to happen with government employees. Except instead of fabulously wealthy software engineers with both personal and government safety nets, you're going to have a much broader mix of workers and much greater exposure for the working and middle classes. Most of their income goes back into the actual economy.

Plus we have the EU, China, Canada, and Mexico pissed as hell and trade is slowing.

The only way to fix this is to invent a Time Machine. The damage is done. Even if we do a full policy reversal those relationships are forever changed.

It's probably good that the EU will be more of an equal partner. But it's bad for us as Americans and the 100 years of wealth accumulation we've enjoyed.
Click to expand...
Oh I can see the trade already starting to drop since I work at an airport that is wholly dependent on trade from Asia, volume is dropping, flights are starting to be reduced, and all the MAGAts I work with are clueless to it. They're planning vacations, big purchases, home improvements etc. Even the ones who "aren't political" have their heads buried in the sand, think all of lefties who are trying to warn them are being ridiculous.

It's going to be bad.
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
The private sector will be shedding like a husky in spring and sadly it’s way too late as you mentioned
Click to expand...
They already started.

Starbucks announced its largest layoff in history.

Trucking is next, the largest employer in America, will feel the effects from trade shutdown. The difference is you don't lay them off, they just don't get contracts.
 
Jimjamesak said:
I have a feeling that Musk is going to be the fall guy for all of this. Dump and cronies get their depression to gather more wealth, the MAGA proles start to get violent, Dump blames it all on Musk, arrests Musk and tries him for "treason", Musk goes to the wall to satisfy MAGA's bloodlust and Dump gets to parade as a "hero" to MAGA for "saving the economy" by killing the guy "responsible".
Click to expand...
You'll see hints of this if there start to be leaks of additional drug use.

He's already coming untethered.
 
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