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Business, Economics, and Taxes: Capitalism. Yay? >=(

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dxmnkd316 said:
Uh... like, I know you are from the industry, but you're not going to convince me they are not that different in effort.

especially when you you follow it up with "there are a lot more people in final assembly than at engine plants".

that sounds like it's different. Unless I'm misunderstanding something.
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I think you are misunderstanding me. Where more of the human labor is in final vehicle assembly, ICE and BEV's are identical- 4 wheels, doors, interiors, gauges, lights, etc. You still have a unit to put the powertrain into the vehicle.

The only real manufacturing difference in ICE and BEVs are powertrain assembly- and ICE's don't really have that many hand assembly work to make it a massive difference in human labor. Electric motors are way simpler than ICE's, but battery packs are considerably more complex than fuel tanks. And given the complexity of power control systems- seems to be comparable to a transmission.

So when it comes to human labor, it would only be a handful of people that would be the difference.

And the reality if the EV laws, hybrids are going to really dominate the market- cars will have BEV hardware AND ICE hardware in the car- meaning you get more human assembly for vehicles for more than a handful of UAW contract periods. EV mandates are not going to kill labor- it will require more. And people will require transportation, so the vehicle industry will continue.
 
walrus said:
Toyota still has a big stake in Hydrogen
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Toyota seems not to believe much in lithium ion batteries for power storage, as they are investing in every technology that's moved beyond raw research stage. I tend to agree with them - I think lithium ion is the best we have now but is likely not the future. I absolutely do not believe in hydrogen, but solid state or other battery techs are more likely to be the future of portable energy storage.
 
What year does the number of EV vehicles exceed the number of fossil fuel vehicles in the US? What year does EV exceed 90%?
 
Kepler said:
What year does the number of EV vehicles exceed the number of fossil fuel vehicles in the US? What year does EV exceed 90%?
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By “EV” do you mean the legal mandate or BEV’s?

One will be sometime around 2035 in specific locations; the other, I’m not sure if ever.
 
MichVandal said:
By “EV” do you mean the legal mandate or BEV’s?

One will be sometime around 2035 in specific locations; the other, I’m not sure if ever.
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How about PHEVs?

Is there a measure of the degree to which they "cheat"? For example, how about PHEVs which derive at least 90% of their anergy from electric motor and so less than 10% from the ICE?
 
Kepler said:
How about PHEVs?

Is there a measure of the degree to which they "cheat"? For example, how about PHEVs which derive at least 90% of their anergy from electric motor and so less than 10% from the ICE?
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so PHEVs are covered when MichVandal talks about cars with both systems, as that's what they are. Right now, they're pretty expensive still. I own one and love it - honestly anyone who's even remotely future-conscious and environmentally conscious should consider them.


They're heavy - they have a full ICE system as well as a battery system (albeit smaller batteries) and complicated for the same reason. We'll see what the later-in-life maintenance cycle is like. Mine is about 4700 pounds. But it has a turbocharged motor in addition to the electric motor and I still get an average of about 43 mpg. If my driving is under the ~40 mile battery range and I'm not on a highway driving like a complete Masshole, I'm getting 100-350 mpg. The 100 mile round trips where I'm unable to charge bring that average down to upper 30s/lower 40s.
 
Swansong said:
The 100 mile round trips where I'm unable to charge bring
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I thought you were always charging if the delta between the mechanical energy of the wheels minus the electricity draw was positive? Or are you saying that very thing -- long trips where you are always on the negative slope?

Note: everything I know is from F1 ERS, and I can't even change my own oil.
 
Kepler said:
I thought you were always charging if the delta between the mechanical energy of the wheels minus the electricity draw was positive? Or are you saying that very thing -- long trips where you are always on the negative slope?

Note: everything I know is from F1 ERS, and I can't even change my own oil.
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Yes, but only a tiny bit. When you brake you definitely regenerate well. I've been stuck on a highway in traffic, constantly braking, where I actually added about a mile of range over about a 5 mile backup. But if you're going highway speed, unless you coast a lot, the tiny amount of regeneration is dwarfed by the power requirement to move a 2.5 ton car at 85 mph.


edit: I'll add that there are different driving modes with EVs. There's a one-pedal mode where the engine really slows you down a lot if you come off the gas, and it does a great job of regenerating battery power. But it sucks to drive like that on a highway where you're so used to coasting. It's weird to explain, but basically the accelerator pedal changes scale. Instead of 0-100 (off pedal-pedal down), think of it like -20-100, where "off pedal" means you're actively slowing down, and the "no acceleration or deceleration" requires you to step down a little bit. And that deceleration is surprisingly aggressive, so when I was learning to use it there was a lot of "Oh shit I'm braking to hard".
 
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So whatever you save on oil changes and transmission flushes, you're basically paying that plus interest for a new batter in like 10-12 years, right?

I assume you don't need differentials, right? No servicing those if you don't.

Any other maintenance?
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Any other maintenance?
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More frequent brake pad/rotor replacement, tires, and steering joints. The extra ton (literally) these vehicles have over ICE vehicles is harder on these components, along with the always high torque from the electric motors. Those tires are doing some work to maintain friction to the highway surface.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
So whatever you save on oil changes and transmission flushes, you're basically paying that plus interest for a new batter in like 10-12 years, right?

I assume you don't need differentials, right? No servicing those if you don't.

Any other maintenance?
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Reminds me of back in the 90’s when I pulled my 28 ft sailboat into the fuel dock at my marina (n Vermont) next to about a 30 ft powerboat. He looked at my sailboat with envy and complained, “I spend $500 every summer on gas - must be so nice to have the wind for free!”

$500 turned out to be a very convenient number for me, because I was able to reply truthfully, “Well, my mainsail costs about $5000 and should last about 10 seasons.”

There are no free lunches!
 
No current BEV/PHEV is a good long term investment. I mean, cars in general are a terrible medium/long term investment, but particularly EV/PHEVs. The value is 100% in its utility.

That said, I don't plan to own it much longer than 5-7 years, so we'll see what the trade-in is like then. And we'll see what that generation of EVs are like too. Perhaps we are moving off lithium. Or we're starting to use some sort of customer swappable battery system for faster recharges.




I will add that the most frustrating thing about EVs is the non-Tesla charging infrastructure. Most charging happens at home, but the state of the charging infrastructure is abysmal outside Tesla stations. They simply aren't maintained.
 
Kepler said:
How about PHEVs?

Is there a measure of the degree to which they "cheat"? For example, how about PHEVs which derive at least 90% of their anergy from electric motor and so less than 10% from the ICE?
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IF all you do is the nominal commute, and nothing else, sure. But they still have ICEs, and which is why I'm asking what your definition of EV is. Everyone thinks that the EV mandate is all about BEVs and it's not. Up until recently, I was able to find the wording in the EV mandate that clearly showed that pretty much any version of hybrid was included- and I know that an entire ICE powertrain is still cheaper than 1/3 of the high mileage battery pack- so hybrids will dominate the market for a long time until the battery part (and ALL of the issues, not just cost) get solved.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
So whatever you save on oil changes and transmission flushes, you're basically paying that plus interest for a new batter in like 10-12 years, right?

I assume you don't need differentials, right? No servicing those if you don't.

Any other maintenance?
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Funny how that's brought up when people talk BEVs vs ICE.

Some BEVs have transmissions. So some of them do need serviced.

All BEVs do have differentials- which are required because cars go around corners and don't run with locked and fixed axles. The only real way around that is to have a motor for each wheel- and that's not exactly the cheap version.

And I don't know about you, but even a $100 oil change is pretty minor vs. gas. But you can find them for half that at dealers. Or free for a few years on new cars.

There IS lubrication systems for BEVs, since stuff spins, as there is a cooling system for BEVs. Those, too will need maintained.

At some point, the battery will drop off enough that the rage will be an issue, too.

I get the allure for BEVs. And know a lot of people who worship at the feet of Musk because of Tesla. But one can't ignore all of the issues. If there were not any, we'd all be driving BEVs right now. Auto companies have no reason to keep ICE vs. BEVs other than the issues, as they don't actually get paid off by the oil companies.
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
"Approximately $200 Million of Annual Synergies..."

Wanna know how I know an MBB consultant pitched this strategy? :-p
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Sounds about right...

Looking this over, the corporate speak is strong with this merger...

It's still breaking news and stuff has yet to play out, but many people who follow theme parks are scratching their head on this one. Both companies are still looking to rebound from 2020. And no real reasons were given with today's news releases.
 
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