Business, Economics, and Taxes: Capitalism. Yay? >=(

[ScoobyDoo]

Well it isn't that hard to figure out actually. How many people pay for any service that has an RSN whether it is cable, satellite or a streaming package? What is the actual viewership of any one game? There you go.

I did a Google Search and found that in 2020 141k people watched the Twins on average per game. (which is up!) How many people in Minnesota do you think pay for a service that has Bally's on it? (likely somewhere between 1-3 million if not more!) Hell I bet 3/4 of the Twin Cities does so that is hundreds of thousands right there! The non-watchers are subsidizing everything.

Yes, and this is exactly why these clowns thinking they can stream their way to riches is so laughable. They had the goose that lays the golden eggs and they shat all over it for greed. And now the rooster is coming back to roost.

 

[Handyman]

Of the leagues I think the NFL, NBA and MLS will be fine. The NFL will continue to strongarm the networks and media companies with their ratings. The NBA and MLS will be fine because they both have global appeal and therefore a larger audience to spread out the cost. Yeah MLS has to compete against the Euro leagues but that’s probably the next bubble to burst (it’s a massive house of cards). The NBA has short term pain coming with the RSN collapse but they’re competent enough they’ll get through it until they can put an MLS style package together with either Google or Apple. Like I said, they have enough global appeal that they could have 10 million plus subscribers easy.

I’d have more confidence in the NHL if it wasn’t run by a bunch of morons. I’m sure there’s some owners that want to put together a streaming package but the Canadian teams and especially teams like the Bruins, Rangers, and Blackhawks will fight that to the death.

I think the NBA is walking a line. It has global appeal but I think it is closer to crashing in the US than anyone wants to believe. It is running into the same problem baseball is where the games are not fun to watch and the systems are making it even worse. The amount of 3 pointers shot per game is ridiculous and we won't even get to the up and down nature of what is a foul or any other penalty. The NBA is too star driven and that will kill it in the end. Plus I don't think the worldwide appeal will really help all that much unless they fix the game on a fundamental level.

If MLS sticks to its core audience it will do just fine. (if it grows let it be natural) If it makes the same mistake the NHL and NASCAR did it likely crashes and burns.

 

[Drew S.]

Of the leagues I think the NFL, NBA and MLS will be fine. The NFL will continue to strongarm the networks and media companies with their ratings. The NBA and MLS will be fine because they both have global appeal and therefore a larger audience to spread out the cost. Yeah MLS has to compete against the Euro leagues but that’s probably the next bubble to burst (it’s a massive house of cards). The NBA has short term pain coming with the RSN collapse but they’re competent enough they’ll get through it until they can put an MLS style package together with either Google or Apple. Like I said, they have enough global appeal that they could have 10 million plus subscribers easy.

I’d have more confidence in the NHL if it wasn’t run by a bunch of morons. I’m sure there’s some owners that want to put together a streaming package but the Canadian teams and especially teams like the Bruins, Rangers, and Blackhawks will fight that to the death.

I doubt NBA ‘fans’ are going to spend the money to pay for a streaming package. I think it’s actually much more likely NHL or MLB fans are willing to pay.

I was able to watch the second half of the Revs game Saturday on my tv(it wouldn’t work on my phone) and even though the quality was good can’t see paying the $80 for the package. My wife subscribes to Apple TV so we will get a bunch of the games free anyway. If someone like me who is a huge sports fan who likes soccer doesn’t subscribe that isn’t a great sign.

What is up with the MLS schedule? They have a lot of the games on Saturday nights and don’t stagger them very much. Given how poor the weather is here this time of year seems pretty crazy to play home games at night.

 

[Jimjamesak]

I think the NBA is walking a line. It has global appeal but I think it is closer to crashing in the US than anyone wants to believe. It is running into the same problem baseball is where the games are not fun to watch and the systems are making it even worse. The amount of 3 pointers shot per game is ridiculous and we won't even get to the up and down nature of what is a foul or any other penalty. The NBA is too star driven and that will kill it in the end. Plus I don't think the worldwide appeal will really help all that much unless they fix the game on a fundamental level.

If MLS sticks to its core audience it will do just fine. (if it grows let it be natural) If it makes the same mistake the NHL and NASCAR did it likely crashes and burns.

As long as the NBA has stars they can trot out they’ll be fine. People have complained about the NBA game for decades and yet they still watch. Though it’ll be interesting to see what happens when Lebrun and Curry retire.

MLS has always been about slow growth, sometimes to the point of frustration, and they’re not going to change now. They might try for a big signing like Messi but they’re not going to suddenly drop the salary cap or something. The biggest risk they’re taking is with the Apple deal (they’ve moved to centralized production of all their games) but it’s barely been a week and they’re already looking like geniuses for getting out of the RSN model (though they’d been planning it since 2019).

 

[dxmnkd316]

I doubt NBA ‘fans’ are going to spend the money to pay for a streaming package. I think it’s actually much more likely NHL or MLB fans are willing to pay.

I was able to watch the second half of the Revs game Saturday on my tv(it wouldn’t work on my phone) and even though the quality was good can’t see paying the $80 for the package. My wife subscribes to Apple TV so we will get a bunch of the games free anyway. If someone like me who is a huge sports fan who likes soccer doesn’t subscribe that isn’t a great sign.

What is up with the MLS schedule? They have a lot of the games on Saturday nights and don’t stagger them very much. Given how poor the weather is here this time of year seems pretty crazy to play home games at night.

I tend to agree on the NHL and MLB. MLB has had a functional streaming platform for 10-15 years. It's only the blackout insanity that has held them back.

The NHL fans are almost certain to be the most likely to pay. Richer fan base. Winter sport inside coupled with a relatively northern centric team base. They fanbase is so small already it's distilled down to people who just want to watch for a reasonable price without getting dropped, having an absurd blackout system, and irregular availability. Just do NHL.tv, make it $120/yr and the fans will come. Obviously that's just a fraction of the RSN money, but there are ways to supplement.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Lol at your optimism of the NHL. NHL owners are dumb, greedy and shortsighted, they only go for what gives them the immediate payout. They'll give up the blackouts when you pry them from their cold, dead hands. These are the same owners who blacked out national feeds of the Stanley Cup Finals in favor of local feeds until the mid 90's, the same owners who still insist putting the first round of the playoffs on local TV to this day.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

Walgreens can fuck off

https://twitter.com/aliceollstein/status/1631446422028537857?s=46&t=_zdCvWNS3v2cVkMjQylOVg

 

[aparch]

They had NHLtv, but sold the streaming rights to ESPN with the new TV deal. You're not going to get an NHLtv again until the TV deal is over.

To cover the bankruptcy costs, the RSNs will likely sell the studio/production to the leagues to run. MLB is the leader in that, so they'll likely set up a trio to manage the RSNs with NBA and NHL as minority investors.

Killing the RSNs will be the fastest way to kill blackouts.


From what I remember, the only MLB teams with their own in house RSNs are Yankees/YES, Cubs/Marquee, Dodgers/SportsnetLA.

 

[Jimjamesak]

They had NHLtv, but sold the streaming rights to ESPN with the new TV deal. You're not going to get an NHLtv again until the TV deal is over.

To cover the bankruptcy costs, the RSNs will likely sell the studio/production to the leagues to run. MLB is the leader in that, so they'll likely set up a trio to manage the RSNs with NBA and NHL as minority investors.

Killing the RSNs will be the fastest way to kill blackouts.


From what I remember, the only MLB teams with their own in house RSNs are Yankees/YES, Cubs/Marquee, Dodgers/SportsnetLA.

Mets/SNY, Mariners/Root NW, White Sox/NBC Sports Chicago, Orioles and Nationals/MASN, Blue Jays/Sportsnet, Phillies/NBC Sports Philly, Giants/NBC Sports Bay Area.

Edit: That's all the teams that have either full or partial ownership in an RSN.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Lol at your optimism of the NHL. NHL owners are dumb, greedy and shortsighted, they only go for what gives them the immediate payout. They'll give up the blackouts when you pry them from their cold, dead hands. These are the same owners who blacked out national feeds of the Stanley Cup Finals in favor of local feeds until the mid 90's, the same owners who still insist putting the first round of the playoffs on local TV to this day.

Oh yeah I mean it's far more likely the nhl will shoot itself in the dick twice

 

[Jimjamesak]

Oh yeah I mean it's far more likely the nhl will shoot itself in the dick twice

As long as Dolan and Jacobs and Wirtz are involved I have zero doubt they will.

Edit: Actually I posted about it weeks ago. Look at the responses by the leagues, MLB and the NBA have made statements about how their working on solutions, the NHL was like "uh this situation exists".

 

[Handyman]

I tend to agree on the NHL and MLB. MLB has had a functional streaming platform for 10-15 years. It's only the blackout insanity that has held them back.

The NHL fans are almost certain to be the most likely to pay. Richer fan base. Winter sport inside coupled with a relatively northern centric team base. They fanbase is so small already it's distilled down to people who just want to watch for a reasonable price without getting dropped, having an absurd blackout system, and irregular availability. Just do NHL.tv, make it $120/yr and the fans will come. Obviously that's just a fraction of the RSN money, but there are ways to supplement.

NHL ratings stink. Sure the rubes might buy but the money lost because of no local networks is going bankrupt a lot of teams. Barring better national deals and some way to supplement the lost income the NHL will crash and burn...hard.

If it was supplemental to what individual teams had you are correct...but 1/32nd share isn't going to be enough to fund a lot of teams without someone local chipping in a ton. It isn't like the cost to run a team is just going to go away even if salaries crash. So teams with little TV draw will whither and die. Hell even with the deals now you have teams teetering on the edge and they are going to lose a big piece.

It is going to be bad.

Baseball would be better off but their owners are morons and the players are greedy. I don't think they can fix the hole they created and their ratings drop every year. Google World Series ratings it has trended down the list 20 years consistently. People under 40 just don't care like they used to.

Jim,

The complaints about the NBA are different than before. Well actually it is compounded. All of the old complaints on top of newer complaints. Ratings are great when specific teams or stars play but there is always worry when a Detroit or even San Antonio is in the Finals because people tune out. They have the best shot to survive but that is a low bar...

A lot of this will depend what Di$ney, NBC and TNT do after all their contracts are up with these sports. They could be saviors if they extend but if they don't...

 

[Handyman]

Oh yeah I mean it's far more likely the nhl will shoot itself in the dick twice

This.

 

[SJHovey]

NHL ratings stink. Sure the rubes might buy but the money lost because of no local networks is going bankrupt a lot of teams. Barring better national deals and some way to supplement the lost income the NHL will crash and burn...hard.

If it was supplemental to what individual teams had you are correct...but 1/32nd share isn't going to be enough to fund a lot of teams without someone local chipping in a ton. It isn't like the cost to run a team is just going to go away even if salaries crash. So teams with little TV draw will whither and die. He even with the deals now you have teams teetering on the edge and they are going to lose a big piece.

It is going to be bad.

Baseball would be better off but their owners are morons and the players are greedy. I don't think they can fix the hole they created and their ratings drop every year. Google World Series rankings it has trended down the list 20 years consistently. People under 40 just don't care like they used to.

Jim,

The complaints about the NBA are different than before. Well actually it is compounded. All of the old complaints on top of newer complaints. Ratings are great when specific teams or stars play but there is always worry when a Detroit or even San Antonio is in the Finals because people tune out. They have the best shot to survive but that is a low bar...

A lot of this will depend what Di$ney, NBC and TNT do after all their contracts are up with these sports. They could be saviors if they extend but if they don't...

I've pretty much watched all of my NHL games this year on ESPN+

 

[Jimjamesak]

NHL ratings stink. Sure the rubes might buy but the money lost because of no local networks is going bankrupt a lot of teams. Barring better national deals and some way to supplement the lost income the NHL will crash and burn...hard.

If it was supplemental to what individual teams had you are correct...but 1/32nd share isn't going to be enough to fund a lot of teams without someone local chipping in a ton. It isn't like the cost to run a team is just going to go away even if salaries crash. So teams with little TV draw will whither and die. Hell even with the deals now you have teams teetering on the edge and they are going to lose a big piece.

It is going to be bad.

Baseball would be better off but their owners are morons and the players are greedy. I don't think they can fix the hole they created and their ratings drop every year. Google World Series ratings it has trended down the list 20 years consistently. People under 40 just don't care like they used to.

Jim,

The complaints about the NBA are different than before. Well actually it is compounded. All of the old complaints on top of newer complaints. Ratings are great when specific teams or stars play but there is always worry when a Detroit or even San Antonio is in the Finals because people tune out. They have the best shot to survive but that is a low bar...

A lot of this will depend what Di$ney, NBC and TNT do after all their contracts are up with these sports. They could be saviors if they extend but if they don't...

I think the NBA will be fine because of that star power, it’s a big reason why the NBA has a younger audience than hockey or baseball. And that younger audience is why Disney and WBD will bail them out, ESPN needs something to talk about besides the NFL on their terrible shows and WBD needs the NBA on TNT.

Baseball is headed for a long lockout/strike after the CBA expires at the end of 2026.

 

[Kepler]

the NBA has a younger audience than hockey or baseball.

Is this even true anymore? I'm not exactly the target dem but it "feels" like the NBA's peak is behind it. MLB is senile, the NBA is middle aged, the NFL is forever young, and the NHL was aborted by Bristol (not Palin this time).

 

[French Rage]

Is this even true anymore? I'm not exactly the target dem but it "feels" like the NBA's peak is behind it.

Nah. For you or me it might seem like that since the players we associate with it when we were young are gone, but they're replacing themselves well as far as I can tell. Doncic, Jokic, Giannis, Tre Young, Embiid, SGA, Morant, that French kid who will be drafted next year. (I'm purposefully ignoring the Lebron, Curry, Kyrie generation and focusing on the guys within their first 5 years or so.)

 

[RaceBoarder]

Sports will continue but things will change.

NASCAR already went through this in the late 90s and 00's. Things have changed but they have found a way to survive.

The non-NFL major sports will do the same.

 

[Spartanforlife4]

Nah. For you or me it might seem like that since the players we associate with it when we were young are gone, but they're replacing themselves well as far as I can tell. Doncic, Jokic, Giannis, Tre Young, Embiid, SGA, Morant, that French kid who will be drafted next year. (I'm purposefully ignoring the Lebron, Curry, Kyrie generation and focusing on the guys within their first 5 years or so.)

Yeah, the NBA will be just fine. It has the youngest viewership of the four major leagues. It’s done great in the social media era for engagement and lately it’s become like F1 where half the fun is following the off court drama.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Sports will continue but things will change.

NASCAR already went through this in the late 90s and 00's. Things have changed but they have found a way to survive.

The non-NFL major sports will do the same.

NASCAR is not a great example since they’ve spent the last 10-15 years throwing a massive amount of s- at the wall trying to get something to stick as their attendance and TV ratings tanked. The playoffs, stage racing, the dirt race, the roval races etc. Now they’re talking about going back to the small tracks like North Wilkesboro, the same ones they abandoned 30 years ago to chase big money in Texas and Vegas.