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Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

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Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

So in terms of the Tories vs the Brexit- I'm not so sure that there are Tories that don't want Brexit. I do think they don't want a no-deal brexit- which is now off the table.

And in terms of being forced to eat a lot of crow- either way, given how BoJo played his hands, I'm not really sure how he gets out of this. Sacking so many of his own party that disagreed with the no-deal brexit wasn't all that smart, as I see it. The risk is that he loses any brexit support- when a deal brexit was very much in the cards. That could be totally lost now.

It helps to take one's mind off the mess we have here.
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Boris seemed to have fashioned himself as a UK version of Donald Chump but his own party had a few more standup guys (and gals) in it than the treasonous money laundering cult that we call "Republicans" over here. By my rough math, approx 20 out of 200+ Tories told him to go screw. Can you imagine the positive implications for the US if 10% of the GOP in say the Senate was willing to defy Chump whenever he went off the rails? That 5 extra votes would be crucial in getting sensible legislation passed while turfing the loony stuff (Kavanaugh nomination, tax cuts, etc).
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

VERY early poll predicts a hung parliament.

2017:

Tory 42.5%
Labour 40%
Lib Dem 7.5%
UKIP 2%

Projected 2019

Tory 31%
Labour 28%
Lib Dem 16%
Brexit 14%

Poll was conducted 5-7 September in Great Britain.
 
ticapnews said:
VERY early poll predicts a hung parliament.

2017:

Tory 42.5%
Labour 40%
Lib Dem 7.5%
UKIP 2%

Projected 2019

Tory 31%
Labour 28%
Lib Dem 16%
Brexit 14%

Poll was conducted 5-7 September in Great Britain.
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Wonder where SNP ends up along with Plaid Cymru. Would think some sort of Labour/LibDem/SNP/PC anti-Brexit pact would form, though Corbyn as PM would cause complications.
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Why is Labour getting blasted when it was the Tories who f-cked up?

Fear of a Corbin Planet?
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Jimjamesak said:
Wonder where SNP ends up along with Plaid Cymru. Would think some sort of Labour/LibDem/SNP/PC anti-Brexit pact would form, though Corbyn as PM would cause complications.
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SNP stands to gain about 17 seats according to Channel 4 projections. Plaid/Green/IND/Change UK will have a handful of seats. The projection has Conservatives around the 310 seat mark, but does not put Brexit candidates on the ballot because it is unknown in which constituencies Brexit will compete. Even if the Tory/DUP coalition exists after the election (not a given) there may not be enough votes to carry a majority. It is possible Labour/SNP/Lib Dem/Green etc can team up to become the majority, but a Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn would be a HUGE roadblock.

Kepler said:
Why is Labour getting blasted when it was the Tories who f-cked up?

Fear of a Corbin Planet?
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The Lib Dems are formidable. Corbyn underestimates them at his own peril.

Also, Labour are not a Remain party. There are many more MPs in that group, but it is split (as the Tories are). There are about 90 Tories in the "No-Deal Brexit" group, another 150 or so who are "Brexit with a deal" and about 40-ish who are Remain. Labour is almost all Remain, but about 50 of the 262 Labour MPs are in the "Brexit with a deal" camp including much of leadership. The only true "2nd Referendum" option available to English voters is Lib Dem.
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

BassAle said:
no one is positioning themselves anywhere other than "it should be between the woman and the doctor". You make it sound like some candidates are campaigning on a "mandatory abortions for all" platform.
Click to expand...

Fine. Abortions for some, miniature American flags for others.
ticapnews said:
What does abortion have to do with Brexit?
Click to expand...

It’s kind of the definition of brexit.
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

Whoa. The highest civil court in Scotland has ruled unanimously the prorogation of parliament illegal. MPs are demanding BoJo recall them immediately. Of course BoJo is resisting those calls, echoing his twin in questioning the independence of the judiciary and saying the ruling was politically motivated. The matter will be resolved next week at a hearing before the UK Supreme Court in London.

Court of Session judges were unanimous in finding that Mr Johnson was motivated by the "improper purpose of stymieing Parliament", and he had effectively misled the Queen in advising her to suspend Parliament.

They added: "The Court will accordingly make an Order declaring that the prime minister's advice to HM the Queen and the prorogation which followed thereon was unlawful and is thus null and of no effect."
Click to expand...
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

The Liberal Democrats have changed the party's position on Brexit, pending approval at the party conference later this month. Forget a second referendum. Elect a Lib Dem majority and the Prime Minister will revoke Article 50.

So party positions are

Brexit Party: Get out, even (preferably) without a deal
Labour: 2nd Referendum and negotiate a better deal in the meantime
Lib Dem: Revoke Article 50
Tory: "We don't know what we want. Will someone please tell us what we want?"
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">There’s a metaphor here <a href="https://t.co/06u2oBTRZm">https://t.co/06u2oBTRZm</a></p>— David J. Lynch (@davidjlynch) <a href="https://twitter.com/davidjlynch/status/1172491883127476224?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 13, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

us citizens can now use the e-gate's!!!!!!! no more stamping wasting pages in the passport!!!

brexit is a-ok now with mookie :)
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson drew comparisons between himself and a comic book hero in a recent interview in which he vowed to take the United Kingdom out of the European Union at the end of October, as planned.

“The madder Hulk gets, the stronger Hulk gets,” Johnson said in an interview with local media, according to Reuters. “Hulk always escaped, no matter how tightly bound in he seemed to be - and that is the case for this country. We will come out on October 31.”

“Banner might be bound in manacles, but when provoked he would explode out of them,” Johnson went on, referring to Bruce Banner, the character who transforms into the Hulk.
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BoJo SMASH!
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

So it turns out No-Deal Brexit isn't dead. There is a way for the UK to leave without a deal AND BoJo to remain as PM.

Assuming the British Supreme Court finds in favor of government next week (the case will be heard this week, ruling expected next) and Parliament remains prorogued until 14 October...

On or about 19 October BoJo reintroduces a version of Theresa May's Brexit plan. The plan passes the Commons. The law as written only requires BoJo to get the approval of Parliament for an exit plan. It doesn't require him to go through with it.

So, he puts up the plan for a vote. He tells his ERG Tory friends who have voted against it because they want No-Deal that he won't put forward any other bills that are required for Brexit until after the UK is already out. With the ERG reassured and enough support from the other Tories (and some Labour MPs) that just might be enough to pass the plan. He then waits until after the UK has left Europe to put forward the bills required to enforce the agreement - all of which will fail spectacularly. His government will be sacked and a new election will take place in late November or early December - just as Brexit is getting bad. How bad? The government's own forecast (which it tried to keep secret but Parliament forced some of it out) is bleak, to put it mildly. In that environment the UK populace will go to the polls. Ordinarily, that would spell disaster for the Tories who just took the UK out and caused all this havoc. However, the Brexit Party will not stand in the election and the Lib Dems and Labour will split the votes. That could return a Tory majority and BoJo as PM.

This is a scenario a few British legal minds saw coming, but stayed silent because they didn't want to tip off BoJo and friends in case they missed it (like nearly everyone else did). The Daily Mail published the report on Sunday though, so now it is in the public. That's why BoJo has been so ebullient in recent days. All he has to do is survive the High Court's ruling and he's home free. My question is whether Parliament can do anything in those 10 or so days at the end of October, but that remains unclear.

As I said previously, "I'm sure something else will happen though. This has taken so many turns to the unexpected there are bound to be more." That still holds true...
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

ticapnews said:
As I said previously, "I'm sure something else will happen though. This has taken so many turns to the unexpected there are bound to be more." That still holds true...
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Clearly not a Minnesota sports fan
 
Re: Brexit - Should I stay or should I go??

This case is so interesting, but listening to the arguments is unsettling.

When asked if BoJo would comply with an order from the Court to call Parliament back into session government representative Lord Keen said, "It must be for the decision maker (BoJo) to consider the declaration made by the court and to ensure that he proceeds lawfully thereafter." So...is that a maybe?

The government case is that this is completely a political question and the Court should not issue a ruling. Lord Pannick laid out a compelling case against the prorogation, all of which has been essentially ignored by government.

The scariest part of the hearing was when Pannick suggested that if the Court refuses to intervene, there is nothing to stop a minority PM from ordering another prorogation as soon as Parliament returns from this one. Without a legal ruling, there is nothing to force that PM to ever call the Parliament back. They could prorogue Parliament for six months, a year or indefinitely. They could legally become a dictator. Sound familiar?

There are still two more days of this, so it's still very early. As one legal analyst said, "Predicting court judgments is a mug's game which is why I can't help playing it. But anyway, from what I have heard I reckon the Miller and Cherry legal huddles will be happier than the government's."
 
ticapnews said:
This case is so interesting, but listening to the arguments is unsettling.

When asked if BoJo would comply with an order from the Court to call Parliament back into session government representative Lord Keen said, "It must be for the decision maker (BoJo) to consider the declaration made by the court and to ensure that he proceeds lawfully thereafter." So...is that a maybe?

The government case is that this is completely a political question and the Court should not issue a ruling. Lord Pannick laid out a compelling case against the prorogation, all of which has been essentially ignored by government.

The scariest part of the hearing was when Pannick suggested that if the Court refuses to intervene, there is nothing to stop a minority PM from ordering another prorogation as soon as Parliament returns from this one. Without a legal ruling, there is nothing to force that PM to ever call the Parliament back. They could prorogue Parliament for six months, a year or indefinitely. They could legally become a dictator. Sound familiar?

There are still two more days of this, so it's still very early. As one legal analyst said, "Predicting court judgments is a mug's game which is why I can't help playing it. But anyway, from what I have heard I reckon the Miller and Cherry legal huddles will be happier than the government's."
Click to expand...

Except Her Majesty can dissolve Parliament at any time. Normally she would do what Her government wants her to do, but in the above scenario, I believe she would and it would take a Cromwell to defy her.
 
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