Bracketology

[NMU8405]

Re: Bracketology

What's so confusing about the word "prohibitive?"

In 2003, Cornell went 19-2-1 (.887) in conference - going into the tournament, they were a prohibitive favorite. The very next year, Colgate finished as the top team in the ECAC, but with only a 14-6-2 record (.682). RIT is currently .775 in conference, so yes, they are the favorite, but they are NOT a prohibitive favorite, and so it is likely (i.e. greater than 50% chance) that they will NOT win the auto-bid.

Actually according to Playoffstatus.com, Sacred Heart leads the AHA with a 25% at winning the AHA, RIT is close behind with a 23% chance. Playoff Status

 

[redhawkman10]

Re: Bracketology

Actually according to Playoffstatus.com, Sacred Heart leads the AHA with a 25% at winning the AHA, RIT is close behind with a 23% chance. Playoff Status

Remarkable website, thanks for posting that!

 

[thebrain]

Re: Bracketology

I'll give this a try since I have some time...

One seeds...
Miami, Denver, Wisconsin, St. Cloud State

Two seeds...
Bemidji State, Minnesota-Duluth, Ferris State, Massachusetts

Three seeds...
New Hampshire, Colorado College, Michigan State, Boston College

Four seeds...
Cornell, Vermont, North Dakota, Atlantic Hockey

Fort Wayne:
1. Miami vs. 16. Atlantic Hockey
6. Minnesota-Duluth vs. 11. Michigan State

St. Paul:
3. Wisconsin vs. 14. Vermont
5. Bemidji State vs. 12. Boston College

Albany:
2. Denver vs. 15. North Dakota
7. Ferris State vs. 10. Colorado College

Worcester
4. St. Cloud State vs. 13. Cornell
8. Massachusetts vs. 9. New Hampshire

To avoid conference matchups in the first round...

Fort Wayne
1. Miami vs. 15. North Dakota
6. Minnesota-Duluth vs. 11. Michigan State

St. Paul:
3. Wisconsin vs. 14. Vermont
5. Bemidji State vs. 12. Boston College

Albany:
2. Denver vs. 16. Atlantic Hockey
7. Ferris State vs. 9. New Hampshire

Worcester
4. St. Cloud State vs. 13. Cornell
8. Massachusetts vs. 10. Colorado College

 

[NMU8405]

Re: Bracketology

Remarkable website, thanks for posting that!

A note of caution, the CCHA isnt right because it still uses the old formula for points. But still, it gives you a rough idea where things are going for a team. The rest of the leagues and their stats are credible I do believe.

 

[burgie12]

Re: Bracketology

What's so confusing about the word "prohibitive?"

In 2003, Cornell went 19-2-1 (.887) in conference - going into the tournament, they were a prohibitive favorite. The very next year, Colgate finished as the top team in the ECAC, but with only a 14-6-2 record (.682). RIT is currently .775 in conference, so yes, they are the favorite, but they are NOT a prohibitive favorite, and so it is likely (i.e. greater than 50% chance) that they will NOT win the auto-bid.

I was uncertain as to the definition of the word "prohibitive". Now that you've explained it, it makes much more sense. This next weekend against Sacred Heart will provide much more insight into RIT's ability to distance themselves from the rest of the AHA pack. Would you care to table this discussion on semantics and odds until after this weekend?

 

[redhawkman10]

Re: Bracketology

A note of caution, the CCHA isnt right because it still uses the old formula for points. But still, it gives you a rough idea where things are going for a team. The rest of the leagues and their stats are credible I do believe.

Yea I noticed that, I sent them an email giving them a heads up.

But I did look at the potential order of finish for the NCAA tournament and found it interesting. It is listed here http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournpartprob.html for all to see.

here is the project order of finish from playoffstatus.com:

1. Miami
2. Denver
3. St. Cloud st.
4. Bemidji st.
5. Wisconsin
6. Minnesota-Duluth
7. Colorado College
8. Ferris St.
9. New Hampshier
10. Michigan St.
11. Boston College
12. Michigan
13. North Dakota
14. Massachusetts
15. Maine
16. Lake Superior
17. Minnesota
18. Vermont
19. Yale
20. UMass-Lowell

There for our brackets would look like this.

Midwest:
1. Miami vs 4. RIT
2. Ferris St. vs Boston College

West:
1. Denver vs 4. Cornell (ECAC Champ)
2. Colorado College vs 3. Michigan

East:
1. St. Cloud St. vs 4. Massachusets
2. Minnesota Duluth vs 3. Michigan St.

Northeast:
1. Bemidji st. vs 4. North Dakota
2. Wisconsin vs 3. New Hampshier

Attendance looks good in all 4 regionals if you ask me. BC and Mich were switched due to inter conference match ups but other than that no issues that I see.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: Bracketology

... no issues that I see.

I see some. They have Cornell's record as 13-6-3, but that includes their exhibition games - is that true for all the teams? I also don't understand why they have Cornell at #22, when Cornell's probability based on current record is higher than #20 and #21 and their probability based on winning out is less than #23 and #24.

I'd also love to see a scenario where Cornell wins all of its remaining games, loses the conference title game, and doesn't get a bid. I'm willing to believe it exists, but it must involve some bizarre stuff!

 

[HoosierBBall_GopherHockey]

Re: Bracketology

It shouldn't be, they blew a two goal third period lead. But again READ carefully, I didn't say it was a "great feat". I simply watched that game carefully and UND played very well and went toe to toe with the team that is #1 in the PWR right now. They are capable of better than what they are playing, it will be interesting if they can show that. If they can't they most likely will be out of the tournament. Not sure your vendetta against UND but you are taking things all wrong. No one is saying UND deserves special consideration because of who they are or what they have accomplished. It will work itself out with their remaining schedule, so calm down there.

Not sure why he'd have a vendetta against his own team?

 

[RedhawkBandMan]

Re: Bracketology

There for our brackets would look like this.

Midwest:
1. Miami vs 4. RIT
2. Ferris St. vs Boston College

West:
1. Denver vs 4. Cornell (ECAC Champ)
2. Colorado College vs 3. Michigan

East:
1. St. Cloud St. vs 4. Massachusets
2. Minnesota Duluth vs 3. Michigan St.

Northeast:
1. Bemidji st. vs 4. North Dakota
2. Wisconsin vs 3. New Hampshier

The only glaring problem I see with this is the fact that the B-word is included in the Midwest Regional.

 

[Terrierist]

Re: Bracketology

here is the project order of finish from playoffstatus.com:

This has to be the most horrendous website of all time. Some of the teams' current records aren't even correct.

 

[redhawkman10]

Re: Bracketology

I see some. They have Cornell's record as 13-6-3, but that includes their exhibition games - is that true for all the teams? I also don't understand why they have Cornell at #22, when Cornell's probability based on current record is higher than #20 and #21 and their probability based on winning out is less than #23 and #24.

I'd also love to see a scenario where Cornell wins all of its remaining games, loses the conference title game, and doesn't get a bid. I'm willing to believe it exists, but it must involve some bizarre stuff!

I don't know what formula they use. but they break it down based on percentage and etc. According to them, Cornell has a 60% chance of winning the ECAC and ahead by a long shot. Their probability of finishing #22 is based on what they do in their remaining games. Which would mean they stumble down the stretch as no ECAC team finishes in the top 16. Again this is based on one sites formula but it is pretty in depth and interesting. I will say they do project North Dakota as a 4 seed and Michigan some how slides into the tourny.

But I think the site and formulas they have are interesting and based on what they project to happen the tourny field looks good.

 

[redhawkman10]

Re: Bracketology

The only glaring problem I see with this is the fact that the B-word is included in the Midwest Regional.

Yea I didn't like doing that either, only other move they could make would be to switch Michigan and New Hampshier. Either way you have to beat your first round opponent and it won't be easy whoever you play in the second round should you get there.

 

[wasmania]

Re: Bracketology

Not sure why he'd have a vendetta against his own team?

Redhawk sees and hears things in his own special way

 

[Sar'nt]

Re: Bracketology

Here's what's just occurred to me tonight.

Minnesota, as of now, is tied in 24th place in PWR. If the WCHA finishes in any similar order to what it is now, they will be a TUC facing a top-15 team in the first round of the playoffs.

Given that situation, whatever team faces Minnesota is in a bind. By winning as favorites, Team X would knock UMN out of TUC and lower their own (as well as the other WCHA teams) winning percentage against TUC.

Am I that far off-base here?

 

[Pucky-Bucky Backer]

Re: Bracketology

Here's what's just occurred to me tonight.

Minnesota, as of now, is tied in 24th place in PWR. If the WCHA finishes in any similar order to what it is now, they will be a TUC facing a top-15 team in the first round of the playoffs.

Given that situation, whatever team faces Minnesota is in a bind. By winning as favorites, Team X would knock UMN out of TUC and lower their own (as well as the other WCHA teams) winning percentage against TUC.

Am I that far off-base here?

I think you are accurate, Minnie needs a couple wins to stay relevant to the rankings. Unfortunately, I think they will take 3 points from Sconni at the end. Hopefully, they will also take a couple from CC or UMD.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Bracketology

Here's what's just occurred to me tonight.

Minnesota, as of now, is tied in 24th place in PWR. If the WCHA finishes in any similar order to what it is now, they will be a TUC facing a top-15 team in the first round of the playoffs.

Given that situation, whatever team faces Minnesota is in a bind. By winning as favorites, Team X would knock UMN out of TUC and lower their own (as well as the other WCHA teams) winning percentage against TUC.

Am I that far off-base here?

No, but other leagues have the same problem. The CCHA has a bunch of teams currently at the TUC line, Hockey East may have Lowell, Northeastern and BU close to the line as well.

 

[Badgers1]

Re: Bracketology

Here's what's just occurred to me tonight.

Minnesota, as of now, is tied in 24th place in PWR. If the WCHA finishes in any similar order to what it is now, they will be a TUC facing a top-15 team in the first round of the playoffs.

Given that situation, whatever team faces Minnesota is in a bind. By winning as favorites, Team X would knock UMN out of TUC and lower their own (as well as the other WCHA teams) winning percentage against TUC.

Am I that far off-base here?

In the 2005 season, Wisconsin actually would of locked up a NCAA berth by losing game 3 of the 1st round series to Anchorage, as they would of had a 5 and 2 record against them and UAA would of been locked into a TUC no matter the Final 5 result. Once they beat them Wisconsin then became a bubble team, they did do enough/lack of conference upsets to make the tournament.

 

[NMU8405]

Re: Bracketology

In the 2005 season, Wisconsin actually would of locked up a NCAA berth by losing game 3 of the 1st round series to Anchorage, as they would of had a 5 and 2 record against them and UAA would of been locked into a TUC no matter the Final 5 result. Once they beat them Wisconsin then became a bubble team, they did do enough/lack of conference upsets to make the tournament.

In 2008 at the CCHA third place game, NMU took on Notre Dame. If Notre Dame won, NMU would have been knocked out from the ranks of the TUCs and Notre Dame would have MISSED the NCAAs. NMU won 1-0 on a late third period goal, which I really believe Notre Dame let in on purpose. Notre Dame went onto the NCAAs and lost in the National Title game.

 

[Dirty Bottles]

Re: Bracketology

Yea I noticed that, I sent them an email giving them a heads up.

But I did look at the potential order of finish for the NCAA tournament and found it interesting. It is listed here http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournpartprob.html for all to see.

here is the project order of finish from playoffstatus.com:

1. Miami
2. Denver
3. St. Cloud st.
4. Bemidji st.
5. Wisconsin
6. Minnesota-Duluth
7. Colorado College
8. Ferris St.
9. New Hampshier
10. Michigan St.
11. Boston College
12. Michigan
13. North Dakota
14. Massachusetts
15. Maine
16. Lake Superior
17. Minnesota
18. Vermont
19. Yale
20. UMass-Lowell

There for our brackets would look like this.

Midwest:
1. Miami vs 4. RIT
2. Ferris St. vs Boston College

West:
1. Denver vs 4. Cornell (ECAC Champ)
2. Colorado College vs 3. Michigan

East:
1. St. Cloud St. vs 4. Massachusets
2. Minnesota Duluth vs 3. Michigan St.

Northeast:
1. Bemidji st. vs 4. North Dakota
2. Wisconsin vs 3. New Hampshier

Attendance looks good in all 4 regionals if you ask me. BC and Mich were switched due to inter conference match ups but other than that no issues that I see.

So Massachusetts is the lucky team to get a bye....

 

[BUPhD]

Re: Bracketology

Here's what's just occurred to me tonight.

Minnesota, as of now, is tied in 24th place in PWR. If the WCHA finishes in any similar order to what it is now, they will be a TUC facing a top-15 team in the first round of the playoffs.

Given that situation, whatever team faces Minnesota is in a bind. By winning as favorites, Team X would knock UMN out of TUC and lower their own (as well as the other WCHA teams) winning percentage against TUC.

Am I that far off-base here?

This is why, no matter how good (or bad) the PWR is for determining who is most deserving of getting into the tournament at the end of the season, it's rather lousy for attempting to predict who is going to get in.

Hence the disclaimer on Bracketology "this assumes the season ended TODAY" and the adage that the PWR is only valid at the end of the season.

Personally, despite all it's lousiness in predicting who is going to get in, I like it for that very reason. It can make those late season "meaningless 3rd place" games mean something.

However, I'm not a big fan of it resulting in "throw the game to make the PWR" moves.

No system is perfect I guess.