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Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

KnightsOfTheRound said:
3% of the NCAA budget is allocated to D3. But what percentage of revenue comes from D3? If you think it's even 3% you're nuts. The issue isn't that the NCAA doesn't have the money, it's that it's all earmarked for disbursement to D1 schools and revenue generating sports.
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I never said that D-3 sports generate a dime of revenue across the board. Of course they don't. But it would be interesting to learn what 3% of the total NCAA budget actually amounts to, and how it's allocated to the various D-3 sports.
 
LakerEagleLover said:
some SUNY schools are not meeting enrollment targets...empty dorms on a couple campuses. College age population in NYS is declining. Adjacent states offering in state tuition to out of state students. Running a college - public or private - is a tough business. Oz leadership saw this coming and took necessary steps several years ago and have avoided enrollment and budget problems so far.
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Higher ed is a HUGE question mark right now. Especially for small, private schools in New England. Just off the top of my head all of these schools have closed or will be closing soon. Mount Ida, Newbury College, St. Joseph’s (VT) and Green Mountain college. I also saw the New Rochelle in NY will likely be closing.

Population decline amongst that age bracket, costs and questioning whether it’s worth going into 20K to 150K worth of debt to get a college education right now and just too many schools offering the same or similar product without differentiating themselves have caused a very nervous time for higher education.

Lyndon State and Johnson State in Vermont “combined” administrations into Northern vermont University yet operate separate athletic teams still. I think that’s only a temporary fix and in the next few years we’ll see them be one institution across the board.
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

joecct said:
Take a look at the upper left of the d3 basketball bracket. Somebody is flying for round 3. Maybe the 500 mile rule is not as ironclad as it used to be?
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For crying out loud, in a 64-team tournament, you are going to have to fly someone somewhere relatively early.

In the football tournament, which has 32 teams, sometimes they are flying teams in the second round. And it's expensive flying a football team. And you talk about forced bracketing. There are two excellent teams in Texas that are forced to play each other in the first round nearly every year to avoid flying both of them in the first round. These teams are quite capable of making it to the quarterfinals had the brackets been set up properly. Instead, one gets knocked off immediately, and the other goes on to win the national championship (Mary Hardin-Baylor)

The key is flights are to be avoided when possible. Not avoided completely.
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

KnightsOfTheRound said:
Football is indeed a huge revenue generator, however, since the NCAA doesn't run the playoff tournaments/bowl games for football, most of that money goes to sponsors and the schools themselves. Most of the NCAA's revenue comes from television rights for the Men's Basketball tournament.
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This.

Football does not make the NCAA much money. Basically, all the NCAA gets out of D1 football is a "sanctioning" fee each bowl pays the NCAA for the right to operate a post season game.
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

It looks like Eau Claire has no chance of making the tournament - too many ALs above them to jump.
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

joecct said:
It looks like Eau Claire has no chance of making the tournament - too many ALs above them to jump.
Click to expand...

Pretty sure if they win their next game they make it :)

Edit: Yeah, I realize now this is not correct
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

Lightningvinny100 said:
That home lose on Friday was a killer. It says in the PW system home losses are wieghted more then a loss on the road .
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Does anybody have a link to an explanation of exactly how the RPI is computed? It's a little late now, but in the future some of us math nerds would really like to be able to what if with things like "what if Adrian loses in the NCHA finals to SNC?" (In other words is there evidence in favor of the narrative that a SNC win will bounce Adrian out of Pool C let UMB back in?
 
Fishman'81 said:
Good stuff, thanks. Interesting to note that only women's hockey and men's volleyball are allocated less, and that men's golf gets $607,500.
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Cheaper to charter 1 plane for 40 hockey people than to purchase 40 individual golfer airfare tickets.
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

NUProf said:
Does anybody have a link to an explanation of exactly how the RPI is computed? It's a little late now, but in the future some of us math nerds would really like to be able to what if with things like "what if Adrian loses in the NCHA finals to SNC?" (In other words is there evidence in favor of the narrative that a SNC win will bounce Adrian out of Pool C let UMB back in?
Click to expand...

RPI:
A team's own winning percentage (25%)
The average of the team's opponents' winning percentages (21%)
The average of the team's opponents opponents' winning percentages (54%)

Home/Road weighting: For purposes of calculating a final RPI, games are weighted based upon whether they are home or road games. Road wins and home losses are weighted by a factor of 1.2, while home wins and road losses are weighted by 0.8.

Quality Win Bonus (QWB): For any win against the top 20 of the RPI, a team is awarded "bonus points" on a sliding scale from 1-20. In other words, a team is given a .050 RPI bonus for defeating the No. 1 team, sliding down to .0025 bonus for defeating the 20th team. The total bonus for the season is divided by the amount of games played (weighted for home-road), to give a final bonus figure.

Bad win tweak: A flaw of the RPI is that it has can potentially decrease if a good team defeats a poor team. In order to compensate for this, if a team's victory would otherwise lower its RPI, that game is removed from the formula.

r
 
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Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

cetihcra said:
RPI:
A team's own winning percentage (25%)
The average of the team's opponents' winning percentages (21%)
The average of the team's opponents opponents' winning percentages (54%)

Home/Road weighting: For purposes of calculating a final RPI, games are weighted based upon whether they are home or road games. Road wins and home losses are weighted by a factor of 1.2, while home wins and road losses are weighted by 0.8.

Quality Win Bonus (QWB): For any win against the top 20 of the RPI, a team is awarded "bonus points" on a sliding scale from 1-20. In other words, a team is given a .050 RPI bonus for defeating the No. 1 team, sliding down to .0025 bonus for defeating the 20th team. The total bonus for the season is divided by the amount of games played (weighted for home-road), to give a final bonus figure.

Bad win tweak: A flaw of the RPI is that it has can potentially decrease if a good team defeats a poor team. In order to compensate for this, if a team's victory would otherwise lower its RPI, that game is removed from the formula.

r
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I've seen all that, but I want to see precise rules for calculation.

For example is OWP the actual OWP (total opponents wins + ties/2)/total opponents games) or is it the average of the opponents winning percentages? Are opponents winning percentages adjusted by the home/away factor?
How is OOWP calculated (same questions)

How is a game "removed from the formula?" Is J&W just removed from Norwich's matrix for computing the RPI?

Is the QWB calculated based on the Raw RPI and left as is, even if it then scrambles the order (and even who is in) the top 20? What happens if applying the QWB moves a team from the top 20 to outside the top 20?
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

NUProf said:
I've seen all that, but I want to see precise rules for calculation.

For example is OWP the actual OWP (total opponents wins + ties/2)/total opponents games) or is it the average of the opponents winning percentages? Are opponents winning percentages adjusted by the home/away factor?
How is OOWP calculated (same questions)

How is a game "removed from the formula?" Is J&W just removed from Norwich's matrix for computing the RPI?

Is the QWB calculated based on the Raw RPI and left as is, even if it then scrambles the order (and even who is in) the top 20? What happens if applying the QWB moves a team from the top 20 to outside the top 20?
Click to expand...

AFAIK:
OWP and OOWP are actual, they are not adjusted by the home/away factor. Only winning% is adjusted by the factors.

The J&W game is just removed from Norwich's calculations.

I can't find a ton on the QWB calculation, though THIS has some explanation. I imagine the top-20 in raw RPI (before QWB is applied) is kept intact for that calculation?

r
 
cetihcra said:
AFAIK:
OWP and OOWP are actual, they are not adjusted by the home/away factor. Only winning% is adjusted by the factors.

The J&W game is just removed from Norwich's calculations.

I can't find a ton on the QWB calculation, though THIS has some explanation. I imagine the top-20 in raw RPI (before QWB is applied) is kept intact for that calculation?

r
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After readings , studying and racking my brain thinking I’ve come to believe there are too many unknown variables to figure out the AL team probabilities. I am not even throwing out Eau Clair yet cause a win over WSP would give them the highest quality win bonus available. I guess we will know how it works come sat late
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

Lightningvinny100 said:
After readings , studying and racking my brain thinking I’ve come to believe there are too many unknown variables to figure out the AL team probabilities. I am not even throwing out Eau Clair yet cause a win over WSP would give them the highest quality win bonus available. I guess we will know how it works come sat late
Click to expand...

Sunday evening for the final PWR, perhaps, since the NESCAC and UCHC championships are Sunday. Monday morning at 10.5 ET for the selection show.

r
 
Re: Bracketology 1.1 - before the conference tournaments. Don't be upset

cetihcra said:
RPI:
A team's own winning percentage (25%)
The average of the team's opponents' winning percentages (21%)
The average of the team's opponents opponents' winning percentages (54%)

Home/Road weighting: For purposes of calculating a final RPI, games are weighted based upon whether they are home or road games. Road wins and home losses are weighted by a factor of 1.2, while home wins and road losses are weighted by 0.8.

Quality Win Bonus (QWB): For any win against the top 20 of the RPI, a team is awarded "bonus points" on a sliding scale from 1-20. In other words, a team is given a .050 RPI bonus for defeating the No. 1 team, sliding down to .0025 bonus for defeating the 20th team. The total bonus for the season is divided by the amount of games played (weighted for home-road), to give a final bonus figure.

Bad win tweak: A flaw of the RPI is that it has can potentially decrease if a good team defeats a poor team. In order to compensate for this, if a team's victory would otherwise lower its RPI, that game is removed from the formula.

r
Click to expand...

Salient post. Nice job.

I didn't realize that the RPI had a top-20 "cliff". I hate cliffs.

All stats should be calculated along a continuum to be considered valid.
 
cetihcra said:
Sunday evening for the final PWR, perhaps, since the NESCAC and UCHC championships are Sunday. Monday morning at 10.5 ET for the selection show.

r
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Wow,, I forgot about Sunday,,, that indeed will have an effect on the outcome of the AL bids so at that point we will kind of know , but not know for sure,,, my gorilla math seems to put each QW bonus spot as ..0025 starting at 20 and working up,, 19, .005 and so on
 
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