Big Ten Hockey Conference

[Dirty]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

Yeah but what a Fantastic Four we have.

It's like the Three Stooges with Shemp hanging around. You're obviously Moe, but who is who among the other three?

 

[ScottM]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

It's quite telling that the overall discussion on recruiting in a post-BTHC world starts with the premise that the BTHC is going to get all of the best recruits and the WCHA schools can maybe still form competitive teams with the leftovers if they sell "playing time" to recuits and play their cards right. That may be how it works now for some WCHA teams, but I think North Dakota and Denver have enjoyed getting to the point where they are competing with Minnesota and Wisconsion for recruits on a pretty equal basis. A lot of North Dakota and Denver fans are not going to be content landing BTHC rejects and becoming a cute mid-major that makes an occassional run.

Agreed. I doubt some blue chip recruit will pick Penn State over DU, UND, BC, or whatever school, just because they might show up on the BTN some random Friday night. Most of the same factors based on the schools' own programs will probably have more of an impact on their decision, than the possiblity of playing in some half-full barn in Columbus for a Big Ten championship.

 

[aparch]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

Agreed. I doubt some blue chip recruit will pick Penn State over DU, UND, BC, or whatever school, just because they might show up on the BTN some random Friday night. Most of the same factors based on the schools' own programs will probably have more of an impact on their decision, than the possiblity of playing in some half-full barn in Columbus for a Big Ten championship.

Exactly. It's very hard to explain to a 16 year old that "You're going to have NHL scouts at our games too, even when we're playing Bowling Green/Western. Wouldn't you rather be showcasing your talents with prime minutes versus not even playing for a BigTen team?"

 

[mksioux]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

Exactly. It's very hard to explain to a 16 year old that "You're going to have NHL scouts at our games too, even when we're playing Bowling Green/Western. Wouldn't you rather be showcasing your talents with prime minutes versus not even playing for a BigTen team?"

The point is that if UND has to convince some kid to come to UND because he won't get any playing time at the BTHC schools, then obviously it will be a big disaster. UND is going to do what it has to do to make sure that it continues to be a top-notch program competing equally with the Big Ten schools for recruits, not landing recruits by selling playing time. The uncertainty is whether that can happen in the left-over WCHA or whether a breakaway conference is necessary.

 

[MavRick]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

Has anyone actually modeled the PWR in a BTHC scenario? Is it obvious that any six hockey teams, that play, what, five games each against each other (They gotta play 25ish games, right?) will have an overwhelming advantage in the PWR? Is it obvious that four of them will get in the tournament? And when we're talking Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota and Wisconsin, isn't that fairly common anyway?

And if it expands - how frightened are we really of Northwestern, Purdue or Illinois? Nebraska hockey would blow, but that's for intrastate reasons of little interest to this board.

All of this by way of saying: It's not obvious to me that BTHC is apocalyptic, or even material, in terms of the NCAA or anything else from a math perspective. Nor is it obvious that hockey players will stop going to schools outside the Big 10.

 

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

Has anyone actually modeled the PWR in a BTHC scenario? Is it obvious that any six hockey teams, that play, what, five games each against each other (They gotta play 25ish games, right?) will have an overwhelming advantage in the PWR? Is it obvious that four of them will get in the tournament? And when we're talking Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota and Wisconsin, isn't that fairly common anyway?

And if it expands - how frightened are we really of Northwestern, Purdue or Illinois? Nebraska hockey would blow, but that's for intrastate reasons of little interest to this board.

All of this by way of saying: It's not obvious to me that BTHC is apocalyptic, or even material, in terms of the NCAA or anything else from a math perspective. Nor is it obvious that hockey players will stop going to schools outside the Big 10.

Actually, the teams playing each other a lot gives them a disadvantage in the PWR, since they'll beat each other up, dropping their collective winning percentage some.

Realistically, as long as there's only 6 Big Tenve teams, you're looking at a 20-game schedule (4 games against each) and a LOT of non-conference games at home. 14 non-conference games (depending on the opponents) would probably be the biggest thing that could swing the PWR in the BTHC's favor, as one or two upset losses in non-conference play won't hurt the conference as much as if there are only 6 non-conference games per team.

In any case, the Big Ten teams have to win those non-conference games to gain the advantage, which ultimately isn't any different from any other conference.

 

[aparch]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

Actually, the teams playing each other a lot gives them a disadvantage in the PWR, since they'll beat each other up, dropping their collective winning percentage some.

Realistically, as long as there's only 6 Big Tenve teams, you're looking at a 20-game schedule (4 games against each) and a LOT of non-conference games at home. 14 non-conference games (depending on the opponents) would probably be the biggest thing that could swing the PWR in the BTHC's favor, as one or two upset losses in non-conference play won't hurt the conference as much as if there are only 6 non-conference games per team.

In any case, the Big Ten teams have to win those non-conference games to gain the advantage, which ultimately isn't any different from any other conference.

And, by scheduling cupcakes (ie: Robert Morris, Bowling Green, etc), the PWR corrects for opponents-opponents records right? So Michigan (as a BTHC member) taking two games from Michigan Tech, where MTU only wins a half dozen games that season, will still drag down Michigan's PWR, right?

 

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

And, by scheduling cupcakes (ie: Robert Morris, Bowling Green, etc), the PWR corrects for opponents-opponents records right? So Michigan (as a BTHC member) taking two games from Michigan Tech, where MTU only wins a half dozen games that season, will still drag down Michigan's PWR, right?

(Edit: I misread your question, but as my answer below shows- I agree with what you were going for)

We should correct ourselves: we're actually talking about the RPI here, not PWR. (Although, yes, RPI plays heavily in the PWR).

If you looked at the raw, unaltered RPI numbers, then it's true. Beating a horrifyingly weak team can bring your numbers down. However, there is a practice of altering a team's RPI if there are any of those games on a schedule. Using your example, you would remove one (or both) of Michigan's games against Tech to ensure that Michigan's RPI isn't lower because of those victories.

In the PWR, beating a weak team only impacts the RPI side of the equation. As long as Tech isn't a TUC (doubtful, in your scenario), that's not hurting a team in that aspect. And beating a team can't possibly hurt you in the "common opponents" category.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

It comes down to those 14 NC games. Right now there are so few NC games that each one is incredibly important. If one conference plays a bunch and other conferences don't, it would be interesting to see if that would help or hurt that conference...

Looks like I know how I'll be spending the afternoon

 

[4four4]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

Minnesota should love getting into the "Little Six" conference. That will guarantee no more 7th place finishes. It's a no-brainer.

Answer: Penn State

 

[Big Papa]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

Penn State hockey will be awesome. Great addition to NCAA Div 1.

 

[fangers]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

The point is that if UND has to convince some kid to come to UND because he won't get any playing time at the BTHC schools, then obviously it will be a big disaster. UND is going to do what it has to do to make sure that it continues to be a top-notch program competing equally with the Big Ten schools for recruits, not landing recruits by selling playing time. The uncertainty is whether that can happen in the left-over WCHA or whether a breakaway conference is necessary.

You keep using UND as your example of schools that won't be impacted - and you're right...and things shouldn't change for DU, Miami and Notre Dame as far as recruiting goes. But it will for all the remaining WCHA/CCHA schools and UAH...those are the schools that will face tougher recruiting battle if regular games not available against the current big10 schools in their respective conference...

 

[dggoddard]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

Is it obvious that four of them will get in the tournament? And when we're talking Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota and Wisconsin, isn't that fairly common anyway?

There are so many unknowns here, but one thing that was mentioned during the USCHO roundtable is that the AHA already wanted to break into two conferences to get an extra NCAA bid. That would tie up seven auto bids.

If I'm Ohio State, I schedule 12 cupcakes to try and get a winning record.

 

[mksioux]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

You keep using UND as your example of schools that won't be impacted - and you're right...and things shouldn't change for DU, Miami and Notre Dame as far as recruiting goes. But it will for all the remaining WCHA/CCHA schools and UAH...those are the schools that will face tougher recruiting battle if regular games not available against the current big10 schools in their respective conference...

I use UND as an example because they happen to be the team I follow. Denver is similarly situated in that Denver and UND are consistently among the best and most visible non-Big Ten programs in the west. Miami and Notre Dame in the CCHA would certainly qualify as well.

My posts were responding to the idea that non-BTHC schools will be okay because they can sell playing time and still land quality players that would rather be a 1st or 2nd line player on a non-BTHC team than be a 4th liner on a BTHC team. I was merely pointing out that such a recruiting model would actually be a significant downgrade for teams like UND and Denver because they currently compete for the best of the best. They do not settle for a player who wants playing time that can't get it elsewhere.

The interesting question going forward after a BTHC is whether teams like UND and Denver will still be able to compete for the best of the best in the left-over WCHA or whether they will have to modify their recruiting model. And if being in the left-over WCHA hurts recruiting, would they consider a breakaway conference? In other words, is the BTHC going to be the only wave or will there be a second wave initiated by teams like UND, Denver, Miami, and Notre Dame.

 

[The Exiled One]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

And here's another upside to MN joining the BTHC: not having overconfident opposing fans talking smack because their team finally won an NCAA game after nearly ten tries.

I'm not sure how they teach math at UMN, but I've always called this nine.

SCSU fans aren't overconfident, this is overconfident...

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[ScottM]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

IThe interesting question going forward after a BTHC is whether teams like UND and Denver will still be able to compete for the best of the best in the left-over WCHA or whether they will have to modify their recruiting model. And if being in the left-over WCHA hurts recruiting, would they consider a breakaway conference? In other words, is the BTHC going to be the only wave or will there be a second wave initiated by teams like UND, Denver, Miami, and Notre Dame.

I think that's the specter that creates a lot of heartburn for the Bemidjis, UNOs, etc. of the college hockey world at this point. However, I doubt few recruits come to UND for the chance to play Minnesota, so much as the chance to be the next Parise or Toews. I would also argue that when/if there is a BTHC, they will have the same concerns about scheduling quality NC games for their own gate, as well as being to show recruits they will be playing "big time" hockey, rather than just playing hockey at a "big time football" school. Of course, Minnesota probably won't fit into that last classification.

 

[CHFAN222]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

If I'm Ohio State, I schedule 12 cupcakes to try and get a winning record.

So Ohio State will have a yearly series with Bentley

 

[bronconick]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

The closest thing I can recall would be if assuming the BT teams play 10-12 games at home, against cupcakes or bottom feeders of other conferences and win most of them, they'd sit in the Pairwise much like the WCHA did a few years back when they thrashed everyone in the non-conference portion of the schedule, and it tilted things so much that an 8 win Michigan Tech team was a TUC, and sub-.500 7th place WCHA teams were on the cut line around 12-14th. So you'd have say, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin in the top 10, MSU sitting around 15th, and OSU and PSU as TUC's despite losing records.

 

[aparch]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

The closest thing I can recall would be if assuming the BT teams play 10-12 games at home, against cupcakes or bottom feeders of other conferences and win most of them, they'd sit in the Pairwise much like the WCHA did a few years back when they thrashed everyone in the non-conference portion of the schedule, and it tilted things so much that an 8 win Michigan Tech team was a TUC, and sub-.500 7th place WCHA teams were on the cut line around 12-14th. So you'd have say, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin in the top 10, MSU sitting around 15th, and OSU and PSU as TUC's despite losing records.

I thought the NCAA fixed that and no sub .500 team can be a TUC?

For being all "pro-BigTen," I can't see the NCAA taking away a rule that was enacted to stop the "BigTen" teams from doing that.

 

[bronconick]

Re: Big Ten Hockey Conference

I thought the NCAA fixed that and no sub .500 team can be a TUC?

For being all "pro-BigTen," I can't see the NCAA taking away a rule that was enacted to stop the "BigTen" teams from doing that.

That's possible. It's not like I've had reason to take a good hard look at the Pairwise since 2002 or so.