What's new
By:
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Handyman said:
https://twitter.com/marceelias/statu...63341429141504

BREAKING: In MAJOR Victory for voting rights in Michigan. Court rules:
Ballots postmarked by 11/2 & received w/in 14 days of E-Day to be counted.
Ballot collection allowed from the Friday before Election Day through E-Day[/qoute]

https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1307020188257333248
Click to expand...

Does that mean w/in 14 days after the election? And does collection mean people dropping mail/absentee ballots off somewhere (voter registrar or designated ballot boxes)?
Click to expand...
 
Sounds like 14 days after the election yes. Dont know the answer to your second question.

Clown,

I got in to verify where I can vote...plan to do it today :-):)
 
One of the interesting things buried in the 538 analysis is how days to election becomes lethal as you get closer to the election. Say for example you are 70 days from the election and a week passes. That's just 10% of the time for Dump to erode Biden's lead. But now say you are 35 days away and that same week passes. That's 20% of the remaining time -- double the damage to Dump even though time is passing at the same rate.

Or, put another way, f(x) = x/n is hyperbolic as n approaches 0.
 
Kepler said:
One of the interesting things buried in the 538 analysis is how days to election becomes lethal as you get closer to the election. Say for example you are 70 days from the election and a week passes. That's just 10% of the time for Dump to erode Biden's lead. But now say you are 35 days away and that same week passes. That's 20% of the remaining time -- double the damage to Dump even though time is passing at the same rate.

Or, put another way, f(x) = x/n is hyperbolic as n approaches 0.
Click to expand...

The scary part is that is also a graph of his craziness as we approach election day.
 
Kepler said:
One of the interesting things buried in the 538 analysis is how days to election becomes lethal as you get closer to the election. Say for example you are 70 days from the election and a week passes. That's just 10% of the time for Dump to erode Biden's lead. But now say you are 35 days away and that same week passes. That's 20% of the remaining time -- double the damage to Dump even though time is passing at the same rate.

Or, put another way, f(x) = x/n is hyperbolic as n approaches 0.
Click to expand...

If you read the tweet thread I posted by Rachel Bitecofer she explains that quite well and how it is affecting Nate's model. Interesting stuff but according to her it is a flaw in his method. She isnt ripping him just saying it is an overcorrection that is weighing down the percentages. She also says Biden WILL win no bet hedging at all. (which 538 is kind of doing)
 
Handyman said:
If you read the tweet thread I posted by Rachel Bitecofer she explains that quite well and how it is affecting Nate's model. Interesting stuff but according to her it is a flaw in his method. She isnt ripping him just saying it is an overcorrection that is weighing down the percentages. She also says Biden WILL win no bet hedging at all. (which 538 is kind of doing)
Click to expand...

It's not a flaw, it's acknowledging reality that something unforeseen and unknowable could occur between now and election day that cannot be accurately modeled, leading to uncertainty. As election day gets closer, there is less time for that to happen.

Biden's plane could crash. Trump could stroke out. There could be a terrorist attack. The entire pacific northwest could burn to the ground. Who knows? That's the point.
 
unofan said:
It's not a flaw, it's acknowledging reality that something unforeseen and unknowable could occur between now and election day that cannot be accurately modeled, leading to uncertainty. As election day gets closer, there is less time for that to happen.

Biden's plane could crash. Trump could stroke out. There could be a terrorist attack. The entire pacific northwest could burn to the ground. Who knows? That's the point.
Click to expand...

North Dakota could all be at a funeral.
 
unofan said:
It's not a flaw, it's acknowledging reality that something unforeseen and unknowable could occur between now and election day that cannot be accurately modeled, leading to uncertainty. As election day gets closer, there is less time for that to happen.

Biden's plane could crash. Trump could stroke out. There could be a terrorist attack. The entire pacific northwest could burn to the ground. Who knows? That's the point.
Click to expand...

Out of curiosity, what is the procedure if Biden and/or Dump becomes medically unfit for office between now and Nov. 10?
 
Handyman said:
If you read the tweet thread I posted by Rachel Bitecofer she explains that quite well and how it is affecting Nate's model. Interesting stuff but according to her it is a flaw in his method. She isnt ripping him just saying it is an overcorrection that is weighing down the percentages.
Click to expand...

Does she have any mathematical justification saying so? It sounds like one of the old guys in baseball harrumphing about metrics because they "don't pass the eye test." Which is like saying, "hey, this analysis exposes my cognitive bias so it's wrong."
 
unofan said:
Biden's plane could crash. Trump could stroke out. There could be a terrorist attack. The entire pacific northwest could burn to the ground. Who knows? That's the point.
Click to expand...

False flag attack on Chump and/or The White House is definitely within the realm of possibility for this crew, and far more plausible than him torching off the nukes.

Also, more deep fakes of Biden are a given in the next month, and they're going to be even more outlandish.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top