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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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I'm confident most of us didn't think you were being malicious. I didn't even notice it to be honest. I'd be lying though if I said that I wasn't annoyed once every so often when I hear some idiot GOP rep say it. Now I just roll my eyes for the most part if I catch it.
 
fwiw: Joe Biden is Running an Invisible Digital Campaign in All-Important Michigan. That's Making Some Democrats Nervous

https://time.com/5889093/joe-biden-michigan-campaign/
“I can’t even find a sign,” Sabbe says outside a Kroger’s in Sterling Heights, where surrounding cars fly massive Donald Trump flags that say “No More Bullsh-t” and fellow shoppers wear Trump T-shirts for their weekend grocery runs. “I’m looking for one of those storefronts. I’m looking for a campaign office for Biden. And I’m not finding one.”

The reason Sabbe can’t find a dedicated Biden campaign field office is because there aren’t any around here. Not in Macomb County, the swing region where Sabbe lives. It’s not even clear Biden has opened any new dedicated field offices in the state; because of the pandemic, they’ve moved their field organizing effort online. The Biden campaign in Michigan refused to confirm the location of any physical field offices despite repeated requests; they say they have “supply centers” for handing out signs, but would not confirm those locations. The campaign also declined to say how many of their Michigan staff were physically located here. Biden’s field operation in this all-important state is being run through the Michigan Democratic Party’s One Campaign, which is also not doing physical canvassing or events at the moment. When I ask Biden campaign staffers and Democratic Party officials how many people they have on the ground in Michigan, one reply stuck out: “What do you mean by ‘on the ground?'”
https://time.com/5889093/joe-biden-michigan-campaign/
https://time.com/5889093/joe-biden-michigan-campaign/

All this means there are no young volunteers in Biden shirts pounding the pavement for their candidate, no clusters of posters marking the Biden field offices in various precincts, few bumper stickers on the highways. There are more Biden signs than Hillary Clinton had in 2016, locals say, but not enough to give the impression of an enthusiastic presidential campaign in a crucial swing state. When Biden visited Michigan last week, only a handful of supporters came to see him; his campaign didn’t disclose the location of the event in advance, even to the local Democratic county chair, because it didn’t want to attract a crowd that could spread COVID-19 or violate Michigan’s prohibition on gatherings of more than 100 people.

In short, in one of the most important swing states in the country, Biden’s campaign is all but invisible to the naked eye. His lack of a physical footprint is all the more striking because Trump flags festoon everything from pickup trucks to massive airplane parts being transported down the highway. Roughly 30 Trump supporters gathered to protest outside the Biden event last week, waving their flags and cheering as passing cars honked. (Roughly eight Biden supporters showed up.) After driving around some of the state’s swing districts for the past week, talking to than dozens of voters, the only reason you’d think Biden was up in Michigan is because the polls have consistently said so.

Biden’s Michigan team says its campaign is significantly bigger than Clinton’s and may be the largest program in the state’s history. The campaign says it reached out to 1.4 million voters during the Democratic convention and the weekend that followed, with 500 digital-organizing events and 10,000 volunteer signups. In the week before Labor Day, the campaign sent 500,000 texts to Michigan voters—one every half-second. It has just replaced the trappings of a traditional ground game—volunteers knocking on doors, distributing literature, and so forth—with a digital field operation.

This strategy makes sense during a global pandemic. The campaign is prioritizing public health at a moment when Trump is flagrantly disregarding it. But the juxtaposition of Trump’s loud and proud campaign and Biden’s invisible digital operation makes some Democrats increasingly anxious. “We don’t see the presence,” says Lori Goldman, the founder of Fems for Dems, a grassroots political action group with nearly 9,000 members in Michigan. “They should have people who are like Jehova’s Witnesses, zealots, preaching the gospel of Joe Biden out there in the community. There needs to be someone out there Biden-izing. People don’t even know where to volunteer for Biden.” Goldman says she gets roughly 15 calls a week from women asking where they can canvass, and she doesn’t know what to tell them. “Meanwhile,” she says, “there are Trump signs that look like they should be on an expressway, they’re so big.”

Democratic officials in Michigan and the Biden campaign say they’re confident that Biden will carry the state, where he has maintained a consistent lead by nearly every metric. “The difference between now and four years ago is immeasurable, and I’m very optimistic,” says Ed Bruley, chair of the Macomb County Democrats, who says he sees a steady stream of supporters coming by to pick up yard signs.

But after conversations with more than a dozen Democratic Members of Congress, state representatives, local party chairs and party operatives, a slightly more anxious picture emerged. Top Democrats believe the race is closer than the polls suggest, and some are privately urging the Biden campaign and state Democrats to reconsider physical canvassing. “I think Biden could absolutely do more,” says Michael Heitman, chair of the Democratic Party in Isabella County, a small county in central Michigan which voted for Barack Obama twice and then for Trump in 2016. “I’d really appreciate if the Biden campaign had someone specifically for his campaign here.”

I understand concerns surrounding Covid but I'd rather see the campaign while being cognizant of that not drop the ball anywhere.
 
I understand concerns surrounding Covid but I'd rather see the campaign while being cognizant of that not drop the ball anywhere.

While I agree with your statement, that story is DEMOCRATS IN DISARRAY!!!1!!1

I hafta write a story about an election where one guy is ahead 8-10 points. I have a deadline to make. What do I write to cut through the clutter? "Guy is still ahead 8-10 points"?
 
Really? I had no idea. Well, whatever. I still didn't mean it in any other way than apathy.

I certainly was not accusing you of being a fellow traveler. My post was offered in the spirit of:

tenor.gif
 
Oh. Yeah - so I'm out of the club apparently, since I was simply being lazy and had no intent behind it.

FWIW I did not read dx as scolding you at all. I think he was just letting you know same as I was.

Although I actually am a scold, dx is a better person than I. Low bar.
 
It started that way, but I think it's now fitting, since Republicans don't believe in democracy. Republic is in their name, after all.

TBF another one of their thought-terminating cliches is just this, "a republic not a democracy." It's a classic case of "I don't think that word means what you think it means," since by the Founders' lights not one of the failures who compose the Republican party today would have been allowed to vote.
 
I certainly was not accusing you of being a fellow traveler. My post was offered in the spirit of:

tenor.gif

I wasn't accusing swansong or believed the post was meant to annoy either. That is why I posted I did not think it was done on purpose and also meant it as a "more you know" moment. Nothing more, nothing less.
 
538 looks at the battleground deltas over the last few weeks. tl; dr: Biden is getting stronger. So far at least we are not f-cking this up.

Note that the points in the quote below are odds of winning, not vote percentages. Odds vary directly with votes but amplify them: so for example if Biden leads a state by 55-45 in votes that is let's say 75-25 in odds.

But underneath the topline numbers, there has still been some fairly big movement in a handful of key battleground states, and the news has been mostly good for Biden. If we look at how much Biden’s odds have changed in states where both he and Trump have at least a 1 in 10 shot of winning since we launched the forecast on Aug. 12, Biden has improved his chances in 17 of 20 states. And in some cases, Biden’s improvement has been considerable — +15 percentage points in Minnesota, +12 points in Arizona and +10 points in Wisconsin, for instance. By comparison, Trump’s odds have really only improved in Florida, although he hasn’t lost much ground in states such as Georgia and Ohio, which may signal that Biden’s electoral gains will not be that expansive. (Trump still leads in Texas, for instance, despite Biden’s improvement there.)
 
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538 looks at the battleground deltas over the last few weeks. tl; dr: Biden is getting stronger. So far at least we are not f-cking this up.

Note that the points in the quote below are odds of winning, not vote percentages. Odds vary directly with votes but amplify them: so for example if Biden leads a state by 55-45 in votes that is let's say 75-25 in odds.

Is there anywhere there that shows the constituent polls? I can't find it with the new setup. I like his analysis numbers and all, but the raw polls would be good to see too.
 
Is there anywhere there that shows the constituent polls? I can't find it with the new setup. I like his analysis numbers and all, but the raw polls would be good to see too.

I think if you go to each poll you can dig down to the crosstabs. I don't think they aggregate that data because there would be too many apples vs oranges. Just imagine for instance trying generalize Rasmussen's ridiculous data sets with anybody else.
 
While I agree with your statement, that story is DEMOCRATS IN DISARRAY!!!1!!1

I hafta write a story about an election where one guy is ahead 8-10 points. I have a deadline to make. What do I write to cut through the clutter? "Guy is still ahead 8-10 points"?

I certainly wasn't trying to promote, "panic porn" but I would rather the DNC leave no stone left unturned.
 
I think if you go to each poll you can dig down to the crosstabs. I don't think they aggregate that data because there would be too many apples vs oranges. Just imagine for instance trying generalize Rasmussen's ridiculous data sets with anybody else.

Every one of the polls has a clickable link to the pdf. Some are literally hundreds of pages long.
 
I certainly wasn't trying to promote, "panic porn" but I would rather the DNC leave no stone left unturned.

I kinda agree with your sentiment. If it means having a socially distant storefront available... make it happen DNC! Especially in an area that was "neglected" last time, it doesn't matter if you've got it well covered virtually. Boots on the ground.
 
Can you guys help me come up with a response for two dear friends of mine? I posted that Obama video about voting on Facebook and one friend asked “why are people afraid to vote?” And another said “how is going to vote different from going to the supermarket?” I want to explain how we have it really good here but there are areas in the US where polling places are closed and lines are super long, etc. I remember this happened in Wisconsin in the spring - am I misremembering? Anyway, any examples you can provide would be helpful.

One of these friends literally lives a block from the school where she has to vote. She just doesn’t get how some people are being forced to travel miles and wait in line for hours in a pandemic to vote.
 
Can you guys help me come up with a response for two dear friends of mine? I posted that Obama video about voting on Facebook and one friend asked “why are people afraid to vote?” And another said “how is going to vote different from going to the supermarket?” I want to explain how we have it really good here but there are areas in the US where polling places are closed and lines are super long, etc. I remember this happened in Wisconsin in the spring - am I misremembering? Anyway, any examples you can provide would be helpful.

One of these friends literally lives a block from the school where she has to vote. She just doesn’t get how some people are being forced to travel miles and wait in line for hours in a pandemic to vote.

Not to be a wise guy Scarlet, but your friend asks a very good question ...
 
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