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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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burd said:
Do you think a decisive Biden win is more likely than a squeaker?
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My opinion? No. It's going to goddammed tight at the end. Because I think there is an under-representation of those who will choose Trump. Absentee and mail-in votes are going to be the swing, and Trump won't like it.
 
burd said:
Do you think a decisive Biden win is more likely than a squeaker?
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In reality or in perception?

For about a third of the country there can, by definition, be no legitimate result other than a Dump victory. They won't believe anything else and Dump and a sizable portion of the GOP will play to them every step of the way.

The real result will be what it is but the right will simply broadcast an alternate reality in which whatever it wants is the case.

The likelihood right now is, if the election is fair, it will be a pretty strong Biden win around 7-8 points, which will translate into around a 120 EV win. But we're facing the possibility of massive interference by right wing radicals sheltered from some factions within the USG, some state officials, and in some places even local law enforcement. This is going to be the most difficult transition of power since Lincoln.
 
Kepler said:
In reality or in perception?

For about a third of the country there can, by definition, be no legitimate result other than a Dump victory. They won't believe anything else and Dump and a sizable portion of the GOP will play to them every step of the way.

The real result will be what it is but the right will simply broadcast an alternate reality in which whatever it wants is the case.

The likelihood right now is, if the election is fair, it will be a pretty strong Biden win around 7-8 points, which will translate into around a 120 EV win. But we're facing the possibility of massive interference by right wing radicals sheltered from some factions within the USG, some state officials, and in some places even local law enforcement. This is going to be the most difficult transition of power since Lincoln.
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And I would not have thought that a year or two ago. Certainly he was always bound to claim he was cheated, because he can't accept loss. But he's such a coward, I thought he would make noise about it then go on to a lucrative and still attention-rich post presidential life instead of fighting. But you are probably right. Is it his ego? A base that cannot accept it? His criminal exposure absent protection of the Office? The fear of being branded LOSER, which his f cked up father instilled in him? Harsh toilet training?
 
burd said:
And I would not have thought that a year or two ago. Certainly he was always bound to claim he was cheated, because he can't accept loss. But he's such a coward, I thought he would make noise about it then go on to a lucrative and still attention-rich post presidential life instead of fighting. But you are probably right. Is it his ego? A base that cannot accept it? His criminal exposure absent protection of the Office? The fear of being branded LOSER, which his f cked up father instilled in him? Harsh toilet training?
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For Dump himself it's just his almost unbelievable lack of character. He is Central Casting for every coward-bully, every reactionary-bigot, in short, every contemporary American conservative.

But the reason he's emboldened now is nobody on the right will stand up to him. He has the entire Republican party as a lick spittle and the entire conservative base as cultists. If he had no support he'd sputter and retire to a grifting spree, but because the rest of the right are some combination of as cynical, fragile, and stupid as he there is a bigger percentage in continuing the Blowhard Bluff.
 
aparch said:
My opinion? No. It's going to goddammed tight at the end. Because I think there is an under-representation of those who will choose Trump. Absentee and mail-in votes are going to be the swing, and Trump won't like it.
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People keep saying that but there is no evidence of this. Unless you think he has added support since last election we know what his numbers are going to be for the most part and everyone seems to be assuming they are all going to vote. (unlike with Dems where we never know if anyone will show up) So the only way he is underrepresented is if people who didnt vote last time for him switch to him. I dont personally see that happening.

That doesnt mean he wont win...but if he wins it will be the same game it was last time. Significant numbers of people not voting and him eeking out victories where he shouldnt. If you think that is underrepresented in the polls I will agree with that but I am not sure there is any way to get a real sense of that until after the election anyways. Asking people if they will vote is going to get you no real solid information.

I worry that something might come out...another stupid faux investigation in the hopes of doing to Joe what they did to Hillary but it also seems that those never seem to really hurt Biden when it comes to the polls. Joe doesnt get the vitriol that Hillary did. I think that is why A) you are seeing a real scattershot attack on Joe from the Right and B) certain members of the media are having a hard time reporting on what is going on. They are speaking out of both sides of their mouths in almost every article. It is funny to read but shows fear more than anything.
 
Here’s why I worry. Trump’s voters are extraordinarily motivated. They have no fear of the virus and see him as their messiah. His supporters are probably near 90% turnout. Even if they represent 40% of the electorate... They. Will. All. Turn. Out.

We have the voters, it’s just a matter of making sure they can vote.


Now, on a completely unrelated note, did I read this right? Trump went after not only the military brass today but also the MIC?? So he’s shit on the grunts, the leadership, and the money in a week? That’s got to be the final blow right?
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Here’s why I worry. Trump’s voters are extraordinarily motivated. They have no fear of the virus and see him as their messiah. His supporters are probably near 90% turnout. Even if they represent 40% of the electorate... They. Will. All. Turn. Out.

We have the voters, it’s just a matter of making sure they can vote.


Now, on a completely unrelated note, did I read this right? Trump went after not only the military brass today but also the MIC?? So he’s **** on the grunts, the leadership, and the money in a week? That’s got to be the final blow right?
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My fave clip today


https://mobile.twitter.com/cmclymer/status/1303037965531254785
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Here’s why I worry. Trump’s voters are extraordinarily motivated. They have no fear of the virus and see him as their messiah. His supporters are probably near 90% turnout. Even if they represent 40% of the electorate... They. Will. All. Turn. Out.

We have the voters, it’s just a matter of making sure they can vote.


Now, on a completely unrelated note, did I read this right? Trump went after not only the military brass today but also the MIC?? So he’s **** on the grunts, the leadership, and the money in a week? That’s got to be the final blow right?
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Nah because they are still getting their money. He rips the MIC but he does zilch to reign them in because to do so would be cutting funding to the GREATEST MILITARY EVAR!1!!!! and would tick off his base. This is him paying lipservice so he has a clip out there about how he is anti war (lies) and is trying to get the budget under control. (lies)

This is nothing but a pre-emptive strike for the debates.
 
burd said:
The fear of being branded LOSER, which his f cked up father instilled in him? Harsh toilet training?
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Trump is like the bigly business character from The Langoliers who slowly goes insane from hallucinatory memories of his father telling him he's late, has no time, and is a failure.
 
NYT article on how Dump has already blown through $800M of his $1.1B donor contributions. Brace yourself: most of the money was p-ssed away or possibly even just disappeared.
 
Kepler said:
This is the first real evidence I have seen that we're actually planning for what happens when they refuse to accept reality.
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They must have gotten bored with playing Dungeons and Dragons.

That actually was an interesting article. But I have to say, one of the opening sentences contained maybe the best description of I've seen of Cafe.

Sources familiar with the discussions described them as serious with a modestly panicked undertone.
 
Kepler said:
NYT article on how Dump has already blown through $800M of his $1.1B donor contributions. Brace yourself: most of the money was p-ssed away or possibly even just disappeared.
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They spent a bunch of money on a Nascar sponsorship for one of the bottom tier drivers and I think he has wrecked pretty much every week he has had the Trump logo on his car.
 
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