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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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Handyman said:
If that is even close to accurate Trump is in for a world of hurt in November...thoughts and prayers.
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Yeah, as bad as 4% of Hillary voters going for Trump this time sounds, 9% of Trump voters going to Biden is a much bigger deal. Regarding the third party votes, I'd be interesting in hearing how many Trump/Hillary voters say they're going third party this time, since the number of third party voters going Biden/Trump this time is incomplete without that. But still, all pieces in it lead toward Biden gaining more than Trump. Fingers crossed
 
I honestly don't know what to make of this.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ral/minnesota/

I know Trafalgar is a sh-t operation, but it's not like any of the other respectable outfits are showing anything different. Emerson is one of the best and they're well within the MOE.

I don't see Trump winning the state, I really don't. But there's something eerily similar to the way this is playing out. The precise second I knew Trump won 2016 was when the polls closed in MN on election night and none of the outfits called Minnesota immediately. I just don't like the way this is tilting.

We know they're going to cheat, so we better not keep it close.

fig--31.jpg
 
Well, my MN union members should have you worried. Spent a good part of the day today attempting to explain why their union endorsed Biden. These people have clearly seen no benefit from the trump presidency (just like about 98% of the rest of the country) yet all who showed up today were upset with the support for Biden. For the life of me, I do not get it. I can't fight these battles anymore. There is nothing left to say to any of them. They cannot be saved. At least a third of this country is gone. And even though they are a minority, they end up ruining so much for everyone else.
 
Good to hear. Of course ten years after he's dead, Biden would still be a trillion times the president trump has been, and even dead more suited to the office.
 
WeAreNDHockey said:
Ten years younger or ten years older??? I did not watch/hear his speech.
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Younger.

I will say the fawning over the speech is a bit much. It was good but a fairly standard convention acceptance speech. But it wasn’t half of Obama‘s or Michelle’s.

edit: fawning on twitter and tv
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Younger.

I will say the fawning over the speech is a bit much. It was good but a fairly standard convention acceptance speech. But it wasn’t half of Obama‘s or Michelle’s.

edit: fawning on twitter and tv
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Trump memeing "Sleepy Joe" to lower Biden's expectations was not a brilliant plan.
 
I'm a political junkie and I did not watch a second of the entire convention. I find it hard to imagine anybody outside the 1/10th of 1% most involved people in politics watched more than a few minutes.

I think only terrible things could have happened to be replayed endlessly after. They didn't. So, bullet dodged. But did anything occur that will actually add strength or change minds? I mean... how could it? Dump is actively murdering citizens and destroying democracy and it hasn't dented the polls.
 
I'm looking for the evangelicals to cream bloody murder about the "no miracle is coming" line. Maybe Ben Carson can use his RNC time to claim Biden worships Satan like he did for Hillary.
 
Kepler said:
I'm a political junkie and I did not watch a second of the entire convention. I find it hard to imagine anybody outside the 1/10th of 1% most involved people in politics watched more than a few minutes.

I think only terrible things could have happened to be replayed endlessly after. They didn't. So, bullet dodged. But did anything occur that will actually add strength or change minds? I mean... how could it? Dump is actively murdering citizens and destroying democracy and it hasn't dented the polls.
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Sometimes it’s nice to get a breath when you’re drowning. To keep you fighting to stay above water just long enough for the rescue team to reach you.
 
Oh man the Tulsi Bots are mad on Twitter. Putin put a lot of money into "liberals" being outraged she wasnt allowed to lie...errr...speak on stage.

As for Trump winning here...I will believe it when I see it. The numbers just dont work. The major population centers are OVERWHELMINGLY liberal. Unless people dont vote I dont see a way it can happen. The math doesnt work.

I will admit though this year has been so crazy anything is possible. The polls in a lot of states dont make sense including ones Trump should win easy. 2020 is just off the wall.
 
Handyman said:
Oh man the Tulsi Bots are mad on Twitter. Putin put a lot of money into "liberals" being outraged she wasnt allowed to lie...errr...speak on stage.
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If they are representing themselves as liberals that's atypically poor social engineering by the NKVD. Tulski's 3 supporters were all straight ticket GOP voters who still had Democratic voter registrations from their days of lynching blacks as Dixiecrats.
 
Oh they are...I wont lie though they are easier to spot than Trump Bots.

Apparently Faux was praising Biden's speech...that should go over well!
 
Handyman said:
Oh man the Tulsi Bots are mad on Twitter. Putin put a lot of money into "liberals" being outraged she wasnt allowed to lie...errr...speak on stage.

As for Trump winning here...I will believe it when I see it. The numbers just dont work. The major population centers are OVERWHELMINGLY liberal. Unless people dont vote I dont see a way it can happen. The math doesnt work.

I will admit though this year has been so crazy anything is possible. The polls in a lot of states dont make sense including ones Trump should win easy. 2020 is just off the wall.
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The blue check GOP stans for Tulski are even funnier.
 
Handyman said:
As for Trump winning here...I will believe it when I see it. The numbers just dont work. The major population centers are OVERWHELMINGLY liberal. Unless people dont vote I dont see a way it can happen. The math doesnt work.

I will admit though this year has been so crazy anything is possible. The polls in a lot of states dont make sense including ones Trump should win easy. 2020 is just off the wall.
Click to expand...

Listening to NPR yesterday, their primary political talking head said that Pennsylvania is a "toss-up." I found that statement to be a bit odd thinking about recent polls. Both 538.com and Real Clear Politics poll averages show Biden well in front of trump. 538 has Biden with a 6.3 point lead, and the RCP average of polls has him up by 5.7 points. Neither seems to show a recent poll that is within the standard margins of error, which is usually no more than 4 points, and often lower. The recent polls noted in both are also "likely voters," a designation making the polls even more accurate. The Economist election forecast model also has PA as a Biden win, at a more than 80% chance.

Obviously polls are not votes, and polls can be wrong. But that is why you look at many polls and trends in the polls. I cannot imagine why, other than to make sure people continue to tune in to coverage because the race is "close" would someone refer to PA as a "toss-up." I should note my opinion of NPRs Domenico Montanaro is of him being one of the worst journalists around when it came to trump in 2016, failing miserably to see how many networks coverage of trump basically consisted of giving him free air time. If someone else called it a toss-up I may not have been so put off.
 
Well the reasoning depends as far as I can tell...

For NPR my guess is they arent actively fiddling with anything but I would bet money their sources at the DNC are making it seem closer to keep the overwhelmingly liberal audience engaged. My GF listens to NPR religiously so I have heard some of it and I shake my head because I read more sources than them. It isnt malicious, they are just being used as a tool like when studios use Variety or the Hollywood Reporter to leak information.

NBC and their ilk though are doing it for the money. They were praying for a better fight between Bernie and Biden (with maybe Warren or another Female Candidate involved) and when Biden basically sealed it on Super Tuesday they lost millions if not billions. That is why they doubled down on showing every little thing Trump said or did and ignored other stories that had way more importance. (like how...say...there are still George Floyd protests going on outside of Portland or how Breonna Taylor's killers are still free) They need the clicks and they need the eyes to fill the coffers. That is why NBC did what they did after AOC's speech and it is why you will see twice as many stories about the GOP Convention as you did for the DNC. Trump sells and conflict sells.
 
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