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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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538's Final Breakdown

Lots of good tidbits in there...Nate does a much better job breaking everything down than he used to. While he makes sure to say "10% is a still a significant chance to win" he also says that if there is a similar polling error this year (roughly 3 points) it would make things interesting (his words) but likely still a Biden win but issues in the Senate. If the error goes the other way Biden wins and it isnt close. (over 400 EVs)
 
Whelp, here we are... Literally today is a day that will drastically change America in one way or another...

GOOD MORNING! AND GOOD LUCK!
 
Get a bottle of bourbon and keep it handy. CNBC discussing polls this morning and despite a comfortable national polls, battleground state polls are tightening and Trump's approval numbers are ticking up in his favor.

They interviewed Mick Mulvaney and he said if TX and FL were really going blue, both would be campaigning there. Instead they're spending time in the rust belt. PA, OH, MI, WI, and MN are the states to watch.

Also said Covid cut into the Dems ability to get the grassroots door-to-door campaigning going, where Trump's base doesn't give a * about Covid.
 
Good morning folks. Came here to check in. Taking a mental health day away from social media and the internet because I'm having some anxiety over all this. I just want to know why people are saying this race comes down to one state. What happens if Biden wins 47 states but not Philadelphia and Florida? Then what? I know that's not going to happen, but I'm trying to make sure I understand.

Going to start working now, and then I think I will binge watch The West Wing!
 
Scarlet said:
Good morning folks. Came here to check in. Taking a mental health day away from social media and the internet because I'm having some anxiety over all this. I just want to know why people are saying this race comes down to one state. What happens if Biden wins 47 states but not Philadelphia and Florida? Then what? I know that's not going to happen, but I'm trying to make sure I understand.

Going to start working now, and then I think I will binge watch The West Wing!
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Biden is going to win. Kentucky is one of the three states he wouldn’t win in your scenario, but if Kentucky goes for Trump by only 15, after going for him by 30 four years ago, that’s a bad sign for Trump. Kentucky closes polls at 6 pm across the state, and with the major metropolitan areas in the Eastern time zone, we should get an early idea of how “close” Ky will be, and which candidate the higher turnout is helping.
My wife never cared about politics before Trump, and she’s as fired up about today as I am. The coronavirus response sealed it for her. She hates him and the GOP. I’m hopeful millions more like her out there got activated by this sh-tshow, and that’s why turnout is soaring.
 
psych said:
Biden is going to win. Kentucky is one of the three states he wouldn’t win in your scenario, but if Kentucky goes for Trump by only 15, after going for him by 30 four years ago, that’s a bad sign for Trump. Kentucky closes polls at 6 pm across the state, and with the major metropolitan areas in the Eastern time zone, we should get an early idea of how “close” Ky will be, and which candidate the higher turnout is helping.
My wife never cared about politics before Trump, and she’s as fired up about today as I am. The coronavirus response sealed it for her. She hates him and the GOP. I’m hopeful millions more like her out there got activated by this sh-tshow, and that’s why turnout is soaring.
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You don't know he's going to win. It kinda looks that way but it's not a foregone conclusion. I think it's going to be close and trump is going to do everything he can to make the results go his way in as few locations as is needed for him to declare victory. And then the next month will be a shitshow of epic proportions as this gets sorted out.

I am asking again - why is this coming down to Pennsylvania? In 2016 it was Wisconsin. Or was it Ohio?
 
Scarlet said:
You don't know he's going to win. It kinda looks that way but it's not a foregone conclusion. I think it's going to be close and trump is going to do everything he can to make the results go his way in as few locations as is needed for him to declare victory. And then the next month will be a ****show of epic proportions as this gets sorted out.

I am asking again - why is this coming down to Pennsylvania? In 2016 it was Wisconsin. Or was it Ohio?
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Because if Biden loses Pennsylvania, he has to win Arizona and NE-2 to win the Electoral College (assuming WI and MI stay in his column, which they should this year), and AZ/NE-2 are closer in the polling averages than Pennsylvania. So, if Biden is behind in PA, it’s likely he’s behind in AZ and NE-2 as well, and Trump wins re-election. Biden is ahead by 8 nationally, but only by 5 in PA. He takes PA, he takes MI and WI (the blue wall of 2016) and it’s over, regardless if Biden wins FL, AZ, GA, or TX.
 
Also, OF COURSE I don’t know. I feel good about it though; less so about Democrats retaking the Senate. I’m sorry you don’t. You can take the anxious/concerned mindset, and I’ll take the optimistic one. Neither one of us is wrong.
 
I'm not sure if I should bother voting. It seems bad that Trump is "100% pro-choice", including partial-birth abortion on demand, says "our allies are worse than our so-called enemies", has driven up the trade deficit and driven down manufacturing output and employment, has destroyed any semblance of budgetary responsibility, hates racial minorities and poor people, has stolen $500 billion from taxpayers, calls himself "the second coming of God" and "King of the Jews", says the Bible is "bullshit", has $settled$ 36 of 37 credible rape accusations (but go Katie!), has four wives, and is a piece of garbage as a human, but on the other hand, Joe Biden is a senile but also genius mastermind antifa terrorist who reportedly wants to sneak out and burn down my house if elected and has a kid who worked in Europe. So will probably have to sit this one out.
 
When did PA, and not OH, become the primary battleground?

TX won't become a battleground state until the next Presidential election cycle (2024).
 
psych said:
... and NE-2 to win the Electoral College (assuming WI and MI stay in his column, which they should this year), and AZ/NE-2 are closer ...
Click to expand...

Trump going to Ooooooh-mah-ha last week didn't make sense to me until someone explained to me how important the "fifth" NE EV could be. (That and being on the IA border.)
 
geezer said:
I'm not sure if I should bother voting. It seems bad that Trump is "100% pro-choice", including partial-birth abortion on demand, says "our allies are worse than our so-called enemies", has driven up the trade deficit and driven down manufacturing output and employment, has destroyed any semblance of budgetary responsibility, hates racial minorities and poor people, has stolen $500 billion from taxpayers, calls himself "the second coming of God" and "King of the Jews", says the Bible is "bullshit", has $settled$ 36 of 37 credible rape accusations (but go Katie!), has four wives, and is a piece of garbage as a human, but on the other hand, Joe Biden is a senile but also genius mastermind antifa terrorist who reportedly wants to sneak out and burn down my house if elected and has a kid who worked in Europe. So will probably have to sit this one out.
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There are other seats to vote for besides president. So, you should definitely not sit out.
 
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