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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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Swansong said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZNq...LincolnProject

That one is terrific too. Trump's sole mission was to dismantle whatever Obama had done, whether it was good or bad. There was no reason whatsoever to undo some of what Trump undid.
Click to expand...

Jesus f-ck, that is powerful.

I've thought in the past that if every America actually knew that fact then no Republican would ever be elected again. But I never thought anybody could put it in a way that most people could process.

I'd have liked to see it a month ago, and I have my doubts whether anybody other than us is actually seeing any of these ads. My boss, a decent guy with worms in his head and a straight ticket R voter, had as of yesterday near even heard of the Lincoln Project.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Huh. Didn't know that.

I guess depending on your definition of "large" and how you define the city limits, there might be a few more red. But whatever, now I'm picking nits.

Chart of the Week: The most liberal and conservative big cities | Pew Research Center
Click to expand...

We seriously considered Colorado Springs as a place to retire to -- it has almost everything we love. We rejected it solely for the political and social ugliness of the residents. There would simply be no joy living among idiots of that level.

It should be noted that the retardation of Colorado Springs is 90% from religion. It's the megachurch capital of the Earth. The rest is because of the military presence. It's like Utah: wipe out the people and start over. It is heart-achingly beautiful.
 
Kepler said:
I probably should have picked Notre Dame as an even better example.
Click to expand...

We clearly do not hang around the same Notre Dame folks. In MY world none of us think we have a chance at the top quarter of any of the power five conferences and routinely believe we're going to get pantsed by any top flight team we play. Even after it became clear that Lawrence was out for next week most of the people I know laughed at the betting line. Hint, until the spread gets to more than 2 touchdowns, I'd take Clemson to cover.
 
Kepler said:
We seriously considered Colorado Springs as a place to retire to -- it has almost everything we love. We rejected it solely for the political and social ugliness of the residents. There would simply be no joy living among idiots of that level.

It should be noted that the retardation of Colorado Springs is 90% from religion. It's the megachurch capital of the Earth. The rest is because of the military presence. It's like Utah: wipe out the people and start over. It is heart-achingly beautiful.
Click to expand...

And chose Phoenix instead....

It's the two places I've spent most of my life, and you chose rather poorly (despite nothing you said being wrong.)
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Here's my final map. I don't see how Biden makes up for the inevitable suppression and court-backed vote invalidation schemes in Republican-controlled FL, GA, or TX, but he should flip everything else except Iowa and Ohio, where it is evident that brain drain has pretty much cooked the Dems for the time being.
Click to expand...

I've got that but flip Florida to blue.

Joe wins FL by 47,000-106,000 votes (depending on 55%-60% early vote D breakdown). Among the counties with the largest growth, most are deeply blue. MD picked up 155k votes at 60% D. Broward up 100k @ 68%. Hillsborough 46k @ 54.5%. Orange 31k @ 61.8%. Only county with >25k in growth over 2018 that's not Dem-controlled is Lee with 39k @ 42%.

I agree that I don't think OH flips. Too many outstanding mail ballots from D counties. In fact, the highest % returned are correlated fairly strongly with GOP control. Yikes....

TX isn't in play. The numbers just don't favor the Ds. If you make the (bad) assumption that counties track similarly with their 2018 statewide races, Biden is behind significantly. Six figures. Ain't making that up. Good info from TX SOS

IA has about 400k remaining votes relative to 2018. Ds have about a 120k advantage. GOP would need to make up 65% of all outstanding votes (assuming 50:50 split in no party affiliation voters, but I have no feeling how unreasonable that is). So it's certainly possible IA is actually in Biden's count tomorrow.

GA is hard to tell. Looking a LOT like 2018. Georgia Early Voting Statistics (electproject.github.io) vs. previous results (amazing detail for both!!!)
Blacks are slightly lower at 27.6% of the early vote compared to 31% of electorate. But whites only have 56.7% of the current votes compared to 64% of the electorate.
On the other hand, blacks are having their votes rejected at a 2:1 clip to whites. Couple that with only half the votes and it's really 4x.
THis one isn't going to be called tomorrow.

PA: GOP is down big in early votes. 1,000,000-vote advantage. I... don't know how the GOP makes this up. I just don't. 2.4 million votes already cast out of 6.2 million. They would need to win the remaining votes by over 37 points. Dems have already locked in 54.5% of their 2016 totals. GOP only 18.7%. That's madness. 82% of Ds have returned their requested ballots and GOP only 71%. PA is only won by fraud.


Some other stats:
In-Person Votes by Party Registration

Reporting states with party registration data: CO, FL, KS, KY, LA, MD, NC, NM, NV, SD
Democrats4,247,00635.5
Republicans4,973,07141.6
Minor101,1940.8
No Party Affiliation2,629,92922.0
TOTAL11,951,200100.0


If Ds are voting in person (early, which is still going to skew D) only at a 6% disadvantage, that's going to be a problem for the GOP.
 
Handyman said:
I think they also realized a lot of their people were voting this way in the outstate areas.

It is interesting...my gut tells me they are seeing that Minnesota is not happening (even Trafalgar has Biden +3 and they suck) and so they pull the petition. They still might have a fight for other races in state though (maybe Tina Smith) so you don't fully drop it you just wait and see.

I dunno I gotta believe someone inside the campaign told them wasting time and resources on a state you have little chance to win is not good when you have a bunch of states you need to defend that are in trouble.
Click to expand...

Exactly. That's also why I said MN should just call their bluff. make them expend resources. MN AG and SoS have nothing but time and unadulterated motivation to **** the GOP in this state.
 
Kepler said:
Jesus f-ck, that is powerful.

I've thought in the past that if every America actually knew that fact then no Republican would ever be elected again. But I never thought anybody could put it in a way that most people could process.

I'd have liked to see it a month ago, and I have my doubts whether anybody other than us is actually seeing any of these ads. My boss, a decent guy with worms in his head and a straight ticket R voter, had as of yesterday near even heard of the Lincoln Project.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure your boss is the target audience. TLP is after the moderate. The undecided. The libertarian-that-often-votes-Republican (me). The connected and educated party member that is horrified by Trump but similarly afraid of what the Democrats/left wing would do. Those are the people that can flip. Those are the people worth reaching to.

"Guy, I know that the Green New Deal is left wing masturbatory bullcrap and I will mock it along with you, however Trump is an existential issue before you even get into his COVID failings. And Biden is not AOC. Hell, Harris isn't either. We need to shed ourselves of the disgusting stain that oozes out of Donald Trump very being, and then we can get back to something approaching normal."

That's the message and the audience TLP is going for.
 
The Sicatoka said:
What's been keeping me away? This new board is terrible, and a job change.

EDIT:

... and burying three aunts and a mother ... (none Covid)
Click to expand...

I am sorry to hear about the loss. That sucks and while I like poking fun at you understand I wish no actual ill will on you or anyone else.
 
The Sicatoka said:
Point 8, page 2, of the petition (in the linked Tweet): It claims that they got what they wanted (by other means?) as the reason they pulled this action. I'm not a lawyer, so I may have misread that.
Click to expand...

Yes the demands were met so they pulled it. But that doesnt preclude them from filing it again after the fact which is why the votes are being segregated.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
I've got that but flip Florida to blue.

Joe wins FL by 47,000-106,000 votes (depending on 55%-60% early vote D breakdown). Among the counties with the largest growth, most are deeply blue. MD picked up 155k votes at 60% D. Broward up 100k @ 68%. Hillsborough 46k @ 54.5%. Orange 31k @ 61.8%. Only county with >25k in growth over 2018 that's not Dem-controlled is Lee with 39k @ 42%.

I agree that I don't think OH flips. Too many outstanding mail ballots from D counties. In fact, the highest % returned are correlated fairly strongly with GOP control. Yikes....

TX isn't in play. The numbers just don't favor the Ds. If you make the (bad) assumption that counties track similarly with their 2018 statewide races, Biden is behind significantly. Six figures. Ain't making that up. Good info from TX SOS

IA has about 400k remaining votes relative to 2018. Ds have about a 120k advantage. GOP would need to make up 65% of all outstanding votes (assuming 50:50 split in no party affiliation voters, but I have no feeling how unreasonable that is). So it's certainly possible IA is actually in Biden's count tomorrow.

GA is hard to tell. Looking a LOT like 2018. Georgia Early Voting Statistics (electproject.github.io) vs. previous results (amazing detail for both!!!)
Blacks are slightly lower at 27.6% of the early vote compared to 31% of electorate. But whites only have 56.7% of the current votes compared to 64% of the electorate.
On the other hand, blacks are having their votes rejected at a 2:1 clip to whites. Couple that with only half the votes and it's really 4x.
THis one isn't going to be called tomorrow.

PA: GOP is down big in early votes. 1,000,000-vote advantage. I... don't know how the GOP makes this up. I just don't. 2.4 million votes already cast out of 6.2 million. They would need to win the remaining votes by over 37 points. Dems have already locked in 54.5% of their 2016 totals. GOP only 18.7%. That's madness. 82% of Ds have returned their requested ballots and GOP only 71%. PA is only won by fraud.


Some other stats:
In-Person Votes by Party Registration

Reporting states with party registration data: CO, FL, KS, KY, LA, MD, NC, NM, NV, SD
Democrats4,247,00635.5
Republicans4,973,07141.6
Minor101,1940.8
No Party Affiliation2,629,92922.0
TOTAL11,951,200100.0


If Ds are voting in person (early, which is still going to skew D) only at a 6% disadvantage, that's going to be a problem for the GOP.
Click to expand...

Wow that is quite the breakdown. My only quibble is TX because of the new voter factor but I also Joe would lose it and it would be by more the Harris County votes if they got tossed. TX is not there yet but they are closer than 2016 and with Abbott up in 2022 that will likely be the moment.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map

Playing with the 538 tool, PA is everything. Everything.

If trump takes PA, Biden would need to sweep MN, WI, MI. And still pickup probalby AZ or one of the less likely states. It gets really ugly if Biden loses PA.
Click to expand...

Biden as of now is sweeping those 3. If Trump doesnt win 2 of those 3 he is in way more trouble than Biden is imho. Biden can win without PA...Trump (if the polls are right) pretty much cannot.
 
Handyman said:
Wow that is quite the breakdown. My only quibble is TX because of the new voter factor but I also Joe would lose it and it would be by more the Harris County votes if they got tossed. TX is not there yet but they are closer than 2016 and with Abbott up in 2022 that will likely be the moment.
Click to expand...

I don’t disagree. TX is going to be closer. But 2022 is the year. Maybe 2024 if we can’t get out the vote during the midterms. But no matter how I cut it, my spreadsheet just wouldn’t flip TX unless my base assumptions about D/R early vote are wrong. That’s a possibility. It’s also possible my formulas were wrong too. But I basically took the breakdowns from TX SOS and the early vote project and did a straight factor from early votes per county times the Clinton/Trump split. If I started to weight early votes like 60:40 in favor of the Ds, it gets closer but not what it needs to be. Especially since so much of TX did VBM in the rural areas before this year IIRC.


I just don’t see one of the most powerful GOP organizations in the nation screwing this up. They’re going to make sure every single red voter in TX is going to vote.
 
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