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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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state of hockey said:
https://twitter.com/stowydad/status/1323355068029161473?s=21

I think they realized that the state telling them to pound sand (which was looking more and more likely) could hurt the federal case.
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I think they also realized a lot of their people were voting this way in the outstate areas.

It is interesting...my gut tells me they are seeing that Minnesota is not happening (even Trafalgar has Biden +3 and they suck) and so they pull the petition. They still might have a fight for other races in state though (maybe Tina Smith) so you don't fully drop it you just wait and see.

I dunno I gotta believe someone inside the campaign told them wasting time and resources on a state you have little chance to win is not good when you have a bunch of states you need to defend that are in trouble.
 
Kepler said:
Meh, we need all the Rs we can get. Scarce as hen's teeth these days.
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Hey I am all for Sicatoka sticking around...I usually love when he is here giving opinions. Buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut he needs to take his medicine a bit because he has been "on the road" for like 2 years and never has to really deal with some of his extraordinarily mediocre takes. He is the Rs version of Rover he needs to just accept we are going to mock him so get it over with and we can all go back to normal :-)
 
What's been keeping me away? This new board is terrible, and a job change.

EDIT:

... and burying three aunts and a mother ... (none Covid)
 
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Kepler said:
Corollary: Does this mean lines always move towards the suckers?

Example: Redskins fans are always delusional about their chances. They probably overestimate Washington's performance in a given game by 5 or more points. So does that mean the House will push that line out in the direction of that "irrational exuberance"?

Basically, is gullibility the market inefficiency they exploit?

I always figured what was happening was a mathematical computation like a carpenter's spirit level that moved based on which side of it was attracting more action, in order to reach equilibrium. But are you saying it is deliberate and moved with a will: say the line is Washington -7 and 80% of the action is on Washington, fine, they move the line to Washington -3 to try to soak up that action at an even easier point for the House to make?

I thought it was deterministic, not actually manipulated.

Or does it amount to the same thing in the end?

I probably should have picked Notre Dame as an even better example.
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I don't know that it always moves towards the suckers. The easiest way I can explain it is this.

Every team has a fan base that is overly exuberant about their team's chances, so that doesn't really get factored in much. It's the teams that have a national presence (the Yankees or Dodgers, the Cowboys, and to a lesser degree the Packers and Patriots, Notre Dame, etc...) that oddsmakers understand will always attract bets. Thus, instead of making Notre Dame a seven point favorite, they might tweak that up to 7.5 or maybe 8.

But then, as they see the money come in, they'll adjust the line accordingly if they are getting too lopsided on one side or the other.
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
It’s not a well thought out strategy.

on the other hand, there are reports that a lot of black communities plan to vote tomorrow. I hope many have already voted
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interesting tidbit I heard on the news. I didn't catch all of it, but the gist of it was that there are pockets in the black community that intentionally waited because they view election day as sacred.

I'm not entirely sure I buy that, but I literally know nothing on the topic. So who knows. I really hope that's not the case.
 
SJHovey said:
But then, as they see the money come in, they'll adjust the line accordingly if they are getting too lopsided on one side or the other.
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Yup.

If Watsahmatta U is getting 40 points against Alabama and all the money is still going to the Tide, the books will give 50 points to Watsahmatta to try to get the same dollars on both sides of the ledger.

The perfect line is when the house takes its vig and pays off the winners without going to (additional house) funds bet outside of that game.
 
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dxmnkd316 said:
interesting tidbit I heard on the news. I didn't catch all of it, but the gist of it was that there are pockets in the black community that intentionally waited because they view election day as sacred.

I'm not entirely sure I buy that, but I literally know nothing on the topic. So who knows. I really hope that's not the case.
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I know folks that treat Election Day as a high holiday. They take the day off, vote, and have a watch party at home later. < shrug >
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
Fire fauci, hastell, espy, half the fbi leadership seems to be his closing argument today.

and supposedly they’re very serious about appointing Jeanine pirro to the DoJ.
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We're in so much fucking trouble if he steals this. I'm just trying to play this out in my head and I don't understand how it doesn't end up destroying the country. Maybe north america.
 
I know everyone’s in a mood today, but that Eminem ad is the first political ad to ever move me to tears. It hits me right in the guts. Beautiful.
 
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