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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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Slap Shot said:
Jeezuz of course that was satire.
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Looked real enough to me. I wasn't honed in and I didn't listen to the whole thing or I would have figured it out eventually but the snippet I listened to at first sounded like the millions of Trump supporters I have had to listen to over the last 4 years.
 
Handyman said:
Oh I get the paranoia...but the game is a bit different this time. For example Harris going to Texas tomorrow isnt because anyone thinks Biden is really going to win Texas (I mean he could but he likely wont) but it is about the the Woman running against Dan Crenshaw and the other women running in other districts. It is about trying to flip 9 seats in the Texas House to give the dems control to fix the gerrymandering.

Same in Georgia...it is 50/50. (the early voting helps a LOT) Biden doesn't have to win there, but if being there can help down ballot he ****ed well better be at least once down the stretch. Kelly in Zona doesnt need him so unless there is more there to deal with he should stay out of there as he again doesnt need it.

Biden isnt playing Hillary's game, trying to run up his total to make history. (or so it seems) He and Harris are trying to build a better foundation on the state levels. They are going with a more Howard Dean Strategy as opposed to a Clintonista Strategy.

If Flo(R)ida is trending Blue on Election Night it is going to be a very bad night for Trump. Hell if NC is looking Blue early on Election Night (which it seems to be trending at) it could be a long night for Trump. He has to win all the states he won last time. He is not taking any new states based on what we are seeing now. Every state that is in play is damaging to him. Wisconsin and Michigan seem to have Biden favored and have for a while. That is 26 EVs right there. Take that from his 304 last time and you have 278. Arizona is 11, NC is 15, Penn is 20, Georgia is 16.

That is why the odds are heavy for Biden on 538. Trump has no margin for error unless he builds his coalition. Every loss is detrimental.
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Going to Texas to help down ballot races isn’t a bad move. The long term goal is to turn Texas blue, because if the Democrats do that the Republicans have almost no path to victory in the Electoral College in the future.
 
Handyman said:
Pardon my ignorance:

Are we to assume then that the missing "others" then switched to a party? Even with that it would seem there has been lots of new registrations.

I assume a lot of the early votes come from Dem areas like Des Moines?

You mentioned there was a threshold where if the Dems built up enough of a cushion they likely wouldnt lose based on the population numbers or something. Did you ever figure out what that was?

TIA.
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https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/results/index.html
https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2...sional2020.pdf

Early votes are split pretty evenly over the 4 congressional districts. District 4 (NW Iowa - Steve King country) has about 35k less total early votes than the others, which are all in the 210-215k range.

The current margins in the 3 D-leaning districts are all about the same, 105-110k D early votes to 60-65k R early votes. District 4 is 75k R to 70k D.

There will be one last big change in numbers on Monday, as the Saturday before election day generally brings out a decent number of early voters.

And I don't know the threshold for sure. I can tell you Axne won her Congressional seat two years ago carrying Polk County by about 35k votes while losing all the rest of the counties in the district. Since a statewide race has to make up for Steve King's R-heavy district, a Dem has to carry Polk County by more than that to win. But I don't know where that is. I think it's about 50k. But don't know for sure.
 
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Jimjamesak said:
Going to Texas to help down ballot races isn’t a bad move. The long term goal is to turn Texas blue, because if the Democrats do that the Republicans have almost no path to victory in the Electoral College in the future.
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This should be the Dem's version of Reagan's Long Game that the R's played for 40 years and culminated with Trump. Basically take over every urban area and every eligible non-white voter.

Sure the R's will still have the middle of the country, but with only 3-10 EV's in each state, the R's can NEVER get back to the top step.
 
ScoobyDoo said:
We're going to get a pretty good idea early on Tuesday. Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are all early. I could see Biden actually sweeping that cluster. If he does it's over.
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I doubt any of these state are called on Tuesday.

The media is going to be TERRIFIED of early calls. They are going to need to be 99.5% sure. My guess is no race closer than 10 points will be called and Tuesday's election coverage will literally give us no new information.

It's going to be really weird, with counts and calls dribbling in over the full week. Maybe by 11/8 we will have some idea of the "first pass" result, before the lawyers and the Nazi judges get started.
 
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ScoobyDoo said:
We'll see. It depends on the margins and some states can count the early vote early.
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I guess the exception will be a state that has its early vote count complete and counted and ready to drop the second the polls close.

From that table:

Code: 
[COLOR=#c0392b]TX   11/3 7am[/COLOR]
OH   On receipt
IA   "Must be complete by 10pm 11/3"
[COLOR=#c0392b]GA   11/3 7am
FL   On receipt[/COLOR]
NC   On receipt
[COLOR=#c0392b]AZ   On receipt[/COLOR]
PA   11/3 7am but may not be recorded until polls close

It's better than I thought. Nazi threat to count integrity in red.

OH and NC will be the canaries in the coal mine. If NC goes red we have a problem, if NC is on beam (D+2) then we look good, if OH goes blue it's a laugher.
 
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unofan said:
One week out, Iowa's passed 50% of the 2016 turnout. Registered Ds have a 130k lead over registered Rs.

2016 Registrations - 684k D / 711k R / 800k other
2016 Votes - 500k D / 576k R / 482k other

2020 Registrations - 737k D / 740k R / 735k other
2020 early votes - 400k D / 262k R / 154k other
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While these hopefully tell a happy story, mookie registered in his new state as a “R” and requested a mail in ballot. Checked both choices D and sent it in.

so registrations point, but don’t tell
 
Kepler said:
Pretty sure we're already almost there.
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Once Dems gain enough power in North Carolina and Georgia to fix voting rights once and for all, it's game over for the current flavor of the Republican Party. Flo(R)ida, Ohio, and Pennsyltucky aren't going to be enough to drag them over the line anymore. Texas will continue along the same path that is starting to pay off for Arizona - soaking up West Coast transplants who bring their scary librul soshulist thinkin' with them.
 
Handyman said:
Ok now you are just trying to sound like an *** right? Is that your new bit? You got sick of some posters accusing you of being one so now you are just doing it cause who cares?

That would be rather unfortunate because I liked chatting with you even if we often dont agree. This new version of your posting style really isnt worth the time though cause nothing will be gained by the talk.
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Oh, geez, it was a light-hearted jibe poking at all kinds of prior posts on this board suggesting that the guy wearing wrap around shades is a republican or that woman complaining about wearing a mask is a republican or those people sitting on the beach without masks are definitely republicans. I usually just chuckle at the skills of posters around here to make that assessment like a bunch of phrenologists or something.

I probably should have gone with the Potter Stewart porno reference "they'll know them when they see them," which was my first impulse, but it's so overused.
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
Biden +8 and Peters rebounded to +8 in the final NYT Michigan poll. I suspect an increase in straight party voting on the Dem side might end up bailing out Peters.

Joe and Obama are both coming to Michigan on Saturday, location and time still TBA.
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I would really like to see them hold the Michigan Senate seat. Need to hold in Minnesota as well. I think Tina will but she sure is not a very strong candidate.
 
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