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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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FadeToBlack&Gold said:
The fascists are hooting and hollering about this interview that Hunter's former business partner gave on Tucker last night that supposedly "buries" Joe as a Chinese spy. ;-)
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Yeah I saw that last night at about 9am Moscow time. I am so confused is he a Chinese spy or is he in the pocket of Ukraine and Burisma or that Mayor Putin connected him with in Russia?

There was this clown ex NYTimes guy talking about how it needs to be investigated and it doesnt matter if Trump is also corrupt and blah blah. He made the bots happy but no one else seemed to care ;-)
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
He thinks it’s a scam, a way to harvest votes I dunno. He rants all day about Dems, police, and how he doesn’t even want to interact with people in society who aren’t R, so I’m guessing he’s your typical R who hates the idea of people voting because it tends to not end up in their favor when more people vote
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lol

The fact he takes something nice someone is offering and makes it evil says a lot about his intentions and projections.
 
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Spartanforlife4 said:
Trump brought back Big Ten football!!!

So that Wisconsin-Nebraska could get canceled the weekend before the election due to Covid.
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The BADgers lucked out...they would have been playing with their 4th string QB.

The Big Ten screwed the pooch on this one. They took the moral highground to "protect the players" then buckled under pressure, opened up and it is hurting teams. Kevin Warren is not up for this job...
 
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SJHovey said:
I assume it'll be the same method used to state with certainty that the person you just saw wearing a mask is a Dem, and the other one not wearing a mask is an R, that the person voting early was a Dem, but the person waiting for election day was an R, that the person whose vote by mail was thwarted by the postal service was a Dem, but the person whose vote got through was an R, .....
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Ok now you are just trying to sound like an ass right? Is that your new bit? You got sick of some posters accusing you of being one so now you are just doing it cause who cares?

That would be rather unfortunate because I liked chatting with you even if we often dont agree. This new version of your posting style really isnt worth the time though cause nothing will be gained by the talk.
 
Handyman said:
Why are you acting like this is some either/or scenario. Biden and Harris have been everywhere including Pennsylvania.

If Georgia wasnt in play and if there wasnt 2 Senate seats at play you would have a point...but it is in play (its a toss up) and there are Senate seats up so it makes sense to be there.
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It was in play last time as well. So was Arizona. I'm just paranoid about it for good reason. Now Texas is supposedly in play. That's great, if it pans out. If it doesn't and there was anything you could have done in Pennsylvania if that falls which was a lead pipe cinch in 2016 then it will look bad.

We're going to get a pretty good idea early on Tuesday. Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are all early. I could see Biden actually sweeping that cluster. If he does it's over.
 
One week out, Iowa's passed 50% of the 2016 turnout. Registered Ds have a 130k lead over registered Rs.

2016 Registrations - 684k D / 711k R / 800k other
2016 Votes - 500k D / 576k R / 482k other

2020 Registrations - 737k D / 740k R / 735k other
2020 early votes - 400k D / 262k R / 154k other
 
ScoobyDoo said:
It was in play last time as well. So was Arizona. I'm just paranoid about it for good reason. Now Texas is supposedly in play. That's great, if it pans out. If it doesn't and there was anything you could have done in Pennsylvania if that falls which was a lead pipe cinch in 2016 then it will look bad.

We're going to get a pretty good idea early on Tuesday. Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania are all early. I could see Biden actually sweeping that cluster. If he does it's over.
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Oh I get the paranoia...but the game is a bit different this time. For example Harris going to Texas tomorrow isnt because anyone thinks Biden is really going to win Texas (I mean he could but he likely wont) but it is about the the Woman running against Dan Crenshaw and the other women running in other districts. It is about trying to flip 9 seats in the Texas House to give the dems control to fix the gerrymandering.

Same in Georgia...it is 50/50. (the early voting helps a LOT) Biden doesn't have to win there, but if being there can help down ballot he damned well better be at least once down the stretch. Kelly in Zona doesnt need him so unless there is more there to deal with he should stay out of there as he again doesnt need it.

Biden isnt playing Hillary's game, trying to run up his total to make history. (or so it seems) He and Harris are trying to build a better foundation on the state levels. They are going with a more Howard Dean Strategy as opposed to a Clintonista Strategy.

If Flo(R)ida is trending Blue on Election Night it is going to be a very bad night for Trump. Hell if NC is looking Blue early on Election Night (which it seems to be trending at) it could be a long night for Trump. He has to win all the states he won last time. He is not taking any new states based on what we are seeing now. Every state that is in play is damaging to him. Wisconsin and Michigan seem to have Biden favored and have for a while. That is 26 EVs right there. Take that from his 304 last time and you have 278. Arizona is 11, NC is 15, Penn is 20, Georgia is 16.

That is why the odds are heavy for Biden on 538. Trump has no margin for error unless he builds his coalition. Every loss is detrimental.
 
unofan said:
One week out, Iowa's passed 50% of the 2016 turnout. Registered Ds have a 130k lead over registered Rs.

2016 Registrations - 684k D / 711k R / 800k other
2016 Votes - 500k D / 576k R / 482k other

2020 Registrations - 737k D / 740k R / 735k other
2020 early votes - 400k D / 262k R / 154k other
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Pardon my ignorance:

Are we to assume then that the missing "others" then switched to a party? Even with that it would seem there has been lots of new registrations.

I assume a lot of the early votes come from Dem areas like Des Moines?

You mentioned there was a threshold where if the Dems built up enough of a cushion they likely wouldnt lose based on the population numbers or something. Did you ever figure out what that was?

TIA.
 
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