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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

(I think this tweet is hyperbolic BUT)

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="in" dir="ltr">INDIANA <a href="https://t.co/C7cU97Z04g">https://t.co/C7cU97Z04g</a></p>— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/1267991460823138310?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 3, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

Handyman said:
(I think this tweet is hyperbolic BUT)

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="in" dir="ltr">INDIANA <a href="https://t.co/C7cU97Z04g">https://t.co/C7cU97Z04g</a></p>— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/1267991460823138310?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 3, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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This is a dangerous message to propagate - that he will lose huge. Not trying to go alarmist on the bit, but I don't trust poll numbers at all. The message should be get out and vote and take nothing for granted. I wouldn't doubt at all there's a systematic plan of lying to pollsters by lull liberals to sleep. Even if that is completely b.s. crazy I don't care - get people excited to off their *** and vote him out.
 
Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

It's pretty well established that fringe groups have been lying to pollsters for years. And don't forget that back in the day, no one knew anybody who voted for Nixon.
 
Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

What do pollsters have to do with this? 7.8% (38k votes) of the actual voters in the primary voted for Weld. Those are official numbers not exit polls. Lying has literally nothing to do with it :confused:

And the Nixon quote was from Pauline Kael and it was misquoted anyways.

Not you best effort Fade :p

(not of this means Trumps is gonna lose YUGE)
 
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Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

The Nixon paraphrasing was half in jest, but I will stand by my comment that fringe people and trolls do lie to pollsters to try and skew numbers.
 
Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

I think people want to believe they're independent and free thinking when in reality they end up always voting the same way. We've heard many times the statement of "I'm not crazy about Bush/McCain/Romney/Trump/etc but I wish the Democrats would put somebody up that I could vote for". Its all self serving BS, but its something they like to tell themselves as well as pollsters. Chump will get his 62M and 45% or so of the vote. How many people turn out and vote Dem is the difference between narrow Chump win and epic Chump loss.
 
Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
The Nixon paraphrasing was half in jest, but I will stand by my comment that fringe people and trolls do lie to pollsters to try and skew numbers.
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They do, but I think it's also been pretty well established that the numbers of those who do is noise.
 
Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
The Nixon paraphrasing was half in jest, but I will stand by my comment that fringe people and trolls do lie to pollsters to try and skew numbers.
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Right but that is irrelevant to the point made.

Me: 38k people cast votes for Weld
You: People lie about who they are gonna vote for/voted for to pollsters

I agree people lie to pollsters...but pollsters arent involved in this case unless you think they lied on their ballot :eek: ;)
 
Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

Rover said:
I think people want to believe they're independent and free thinking when in reality they end up always voting the same way. We've heard many times the statement of "I'm not crazy about Bush/McCain/Romney/Trump/etc but I wish the Democrats would put somebody up that I could vote for". Its all self serving BS, but its something they like to tell themselves as well as pollsters. Chump will get his 62M and 45% or so of the vote. How many people turn out and vote Dem is the difference between narrow Chump win and epic Chump loss.
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I agree that it will come down to that small class of voters who either show up and vote D or stay home. And as much as we all learned in '16 to NEVER take an outcome for granted, I'm starting to feel Trump is gonna get evicted in November. I'll still do the grunt work this fall to ensure that happens, and there is a lot of time between now and November. But unless there is a major change in momentum, I think he's history this fall.

That's a confession. For the record? Be prepared for him to win, as most incumbents do.
 
Rover said:
I think people want to believe they're independent and free thinking when in reality they end up always voting the same way. We've heard many times the statement of "I'm not crazy about Bush/McCain/Romney/Trump/etc but I wish the Democrats would put somebody up that I could vote for". Its all self serving BS, but its something they like to tell themselves as well as pollsters. Chump will get his 62M and 45% or so of the vote. How many people turn out and vote Dem is the difference between narrow Chump win and epic Chump loss.
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You're probably right but speaking for myself...I voted for McCain and then independent candidate last time. This time, Biden even though when I hear him speak it frightens me. I don't have to agree with you hardcore liberals on every detail but I want Trump out. And I do think there are a lot of people like me out there. We shall see.
 
Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

Of course I live in MA so it doesn't matter who I vote for. Trump will get trounced for sure here.
 
Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

burd said:
I agree that it will come down to that small class of voters who either show up and vote D or stay home. And as much as we all learned in '16 to NEVER take an outcome for granted, I'm starting to feel Trump is gonna get evicted in November. I'll still do the grunt work this fall to ensure that happens, and there is a lot of time between now and November. But unless there is a major change in momentum, I think he's history this fall.

That's a confession. For the record? Be prepared for him to win, as most incumbents do.
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Yep. For President, it's about a 2/3 success rate.

Incumbents who sought and won reelection: (22 (20 if you only count FDR once))
George Washington
Thomas Jefferson
James Madison
James Monroe
Andrew Jackson
Abraham Lincoln
Ulysses Grant
William McKinley
Theodore Roosevelt
Woodrow Wilson
Calvin Coolidge
Franklin Roosevelt (x3)
Harry Truman
Dwight Eisenhower
Lyndon Johnson
Richard Nixon
Ronald Reagan
Bill Clinton
George W. Bush
Barack Obama

Incumbents who sought and lost their bid for a second term: (10)
John Adams
John Quincy Adams
Martin Van Buren
Grover Cleveland
Benjamin Harrison
William Howard Taft
Herbert Hoover
Gerald Ford
Jimmy Carter
George H.W. Bush
 
Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

And Ford was never elected so he's a special case.

I would say Dump is so spectacularly bad he ought to lose, but Dubya ought to have lost. That election left a mark -- it taught me elections are tribal; there is no rational element to them whatsoever. Obviously Dump's election in the first place confirmed this.

The Republicans elected that steaming pile of dog sh-t to the office of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, and FDR. Even if we dispose of him in November they will never live that down and we can never forget what they are capable of.
 
Kepler said:
And Ford was never elected so he's a special case.

I would say Dump is so spectacularly bad he ought to lose, but Dubya ought to have lost. That election left a mark -- it taught me elections are tribal; there is no rational element to them whatsoever. Obviously Dump's election in the first place confirmed this.

The Republicans elected that steaming pile of dog sh-t to the office of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, and FDR. Even if we dispose of him in November they will never live that down and we can never forget what they are capable of.
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I’m not sure about your opinion on 2004. It wasn’t that long after 9/11 and the Iraq War. Bush actually did work across the aisle and Kerry was a lot more unlikable than Biden. Also Bush is a million times more likable than Trump.
 
Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

Drew S. said:
I’m not sure about your opinion on 2004. It wasn’t that long after 9/11 and the Iraq War. Bush actually did work across the aisle and Kerry was a lot more unlikable than Biden. Also Bush is a million times more likable than Trump.
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As soon as 9/11 happened people expressed fear that Dubya would go into Iraq. He did, under circumstances his own VP had very clearly and accurately warned against when he acted as SecDef for Bush I. It was the most catastrophic foreign policy decision since we became engaged in Vietnam, and by the time the 04 election came around, that was obvious to anyone not completely bound up in their own confirmation bias.
 
Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Luckily there are very few Catholics in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan.<br><br>Oh.<br><br>Wait. <a href="https://t.co/ANidIoJtSd">https://t.co/ANidIoJtSd</a></p>— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/1268756891678752772?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 5, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

burd said:
As soon as 9/11 happened people expressed fear that Dubya would go into Iraq. He did, under circumstances his own VP had very clearly and accurately warned against when he acted as SecDef for Bush I. It was the most catastrophic foreign policy decision since we became engaged in Vietnam, and by the time the 04 election came around, that was obvious to anyone not completely bound up in their own confirmation bias.
Click to expand...

People rally around the flag during wartime. Polling didn't fully tilt against Bush over deciding to invade Iraq until after the 2004 election.
 
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