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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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Kepler said:
The difference is that it doesn't necessarily mean higher turnout, and that's where the goal posts were originally placed.
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If Madison is coming out to vote then it says everything that needs to be said. Madison is a harbinger in that state as is Milwaukee. Even if they are cannibalized it is a strong sign. Remember part of the problem in Wisconsin in 2016 was the Stein voters...well no one is voting early to cast their vote for Jo Jorgensen ;) (there also isnt a Gary Johnson to get 100k votes likely from both candidates)

But we can break it down this way as well. I think we all assume that a majority of the early ballots are Dem leaning correct? As of now Wisconsin has cast almost as many votes as Clinton got in 2016. So for arguments sake lets say it is a 60-40 split. (just off the top of my head...no basis in reality)

1,333,843 x .60 = 800,305 votes so far for Dems.

1,382,536 = Hillary in 2016 (for a baseline)

1,382,536 - 800,305 = 582,231 to equal HC's total

There is currently 55.2% of the Wisconsin total from last time who have yet to "vote". Total votes last time was 2,976,150 give or take. That means 1,642,834 votes are still to be cast. (this will change over time)

If you believe that the Dems are cannibalizing their totals then you are worried that they will end up with roughly the same percentage of votes Hillary got. To do that Trump would need to take 65% of the outstanding votes. (if the totals stay the same) That assumes that no other ballots are returned before Nov 1 (end of early voting) so everyone votes November 3rd. Otherwise the same 60-40 split comes into play making it even harder. It also assumes no new Trump voters.

The other missing factor is new voters but I dont want to go that deep into it because I suck at this stuff and hate getting called out for dumb mistakes I should notice ;-) (of which I am sure I already made many)

Long story stupidly longer...it is obviously possible Wisconsin Dems have just all voted early (or plan to) but considering how many votes are still out there (many of which have to be in the population rich Blue Areas) it doesn't seem highly likely to me. As more votes come in though in the next week we should know a lot more. I know in some places Trump is pushing for early voting so that will skew the numbers a bit in the days ahead. Of course if we believe that the Dems are cannibalizing so will he so it becomes a wash anyways.

**disclaimer**

I suck at math, I am no expert, do not pretend to be one nor do I hope to be one. I am not not an expert on elections, voting and (thank god) the State of Wisconsin. Just some guy looking on from afar seeing things trending the right way.
 
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It would be nice if the paper that has an editorial board capable of coming up with this didn't also foist Maggie Haberman and her lack of integrity on us on a regular basis. And yes, I understand editorial boards and news departments are separate, but that still doesn't mean someone with her lack of integrity and credibility deserves a national platform, from which she is able to glom onto other national platforms (like CNN). Oh well, the editorial is still worth reading.
 
Kepler said:
I just want to win and WI is a big part of that. I am also hoping they can do something about their Neanderthal state leg. Are they up this year?
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The State Assembly serves two year terms, all seats up every other year just like the U.S. House. My guess is the 2/3rds of the Assembly the republicans own now will be what they own after November 3, give or take a couple. It is gerrymandered beyond all reason. Fair maps would probably give the republicans a slim majority, maybe 55 of the 99 seats.

Extreme gerrymandering is one of the reasons we need a new voting rights act and something I have been harping on to my representatives for years now. Already sent Tammy Baldwin multiple letters about it in the year I have lived in this wonderful state.
 
Kepler said:
I just want to win and WI is a big part of that. I am also hoping they can do something about their Neanderthal state leg. Are they up this year?
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There's no chance of taking the legislature due to extreme gerrymandering. Trump has been bad enough that a veto proof majority for the Republicans is almost certainly off the table thankfully.
 
According to Politico (yeah yeah I know) as of a couple of days ago 66k newly registered voters have cast votes in WI and 61% are for Biden so far.
 
I live in a highly educated wealthy hood right outside Mpls. Average home value is around 900k. Reason I bring that up is because there’s one particularly bad house that’s real run down- outside hasn’t been kept up and god knows what inside has. Peeling paint, broken down vehicle, junk everywhere.

area hasn’t voted R for president for a while. Biden signs are all over...except the aforementioned shiatbox. And their Trump sign is home made in brown peeling paint- it looks like a horror show. But it’s also perfect
 
WisconsinWildcard said:
They have made it super easy to return ballots with events most weekends at city parks. Election officials are there and you just stop by and drop off the ballot. Glad it seems to be working well!
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That's just beautifully smart. It allows people to verify they're doing it right (everything signed, etc.) and having election officials present negates any fraud claims (well, it takes away most of their bite at least).
 
https://mobile.twitter.com/wadewrote/status/1320453947115638790

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French Rage said:
Man, these Ernest Goes To movies have really gone downhill.
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We need to bring back the draft.

Republicans are the lunatic and/or tard draftees the field commanders would send out to soak up enemy fire so the actual soldiers could complete the mission.

I can't shake the feeling that one solid, casualty-intensive war in the last couple generations would have taken care of most of our problems. Those really thinned the herd.
 
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