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Biden v Dump 1: If not now, when? If not us, who?

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aparch said:
Partially the reason Shep Smith was brought on board to provide "unbiased news" on CNBC at night in an effort to bolster that networks nighttime ratings.
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You mean they weren't grabbing all of the viewers with 5 straight hours of Shark Tank reruns?
 
burd said:
I'm sure Jon Stewart is very happy with his post Daily Show life, but he has to think now and then how sweet it would have been to skewer dump daily on the show. The same opportunities that ad makers for LP, Biden, and other groups are enjoying now. Beyond target rich.
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He missed the opportunity of a lifetime.
 
French Rage said:
You mean they weren't grabbing all of the viewers with 5 straight hours of Shark Tank reruns?
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I know, right? Who could pass up the chance to binge watch pitch mee...zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

(What was the one Neilson stat that some cable networks get better ratings at night only because people fall asleep with the TV on from earlier programming.)


Kepler said:
I thought the whole thing was a tongue-in-cheek bit. Dude totally Chauncey Gardinered me.
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I'll admit that I was initially hooked by the premise of getting hired into a medium profile position in his company sounded promising, but after reading *why* there were vacancies that he was filling via the TV show, I soured quickly to that thought.

Also, Troy got railroaded in season one.
 
I see 538 has now moved their senate forecast from the Democrats are slightly favored to win to just simply favored in their fully embellished (deluxe) model. 538 and the Economist model are offering very similar predictions on the likelihood of Democrats taking control, 70 and 72% chances, respectively. Also Ed Rollins (did not know he was still alive) claims to be advising a trump PAC and he says trump's chances are "cooked" (his wording).

November 4th-January 20th are sure going to be interesting. Maybe I too need to be stocking up on ammunition like all of my MAGAt members claim to be doing.
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
A postal worker accused of trashing mail is also a qanon follower.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/n7w...rHWHPldTlpH_Wp6EDbMZbdOLhV595XDemeakk62hM_GaM

Oh and dump tweeted support for the fake ballot boxes set out by republicans in CA.
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The Inspector General’s office said that Troesch is no longer working or being paid by the USPS and said that it will report its findings to the U.S. Attorney General’s office for a federal investigation.
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I assume the AG has a cushy desk job just waiting for him...
 
WeAreNDHockey said:
November 4th-January 20th are sure going to be interesting. Maybe I too need to be stocking up on ammunition like all of my MAGAt members claim to be doing.
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If you can find 9mm let me know, its been difficult to find around Chicagoland.

*cue jokes about just driving to 79th and Damen and ask for some*
 
So almost 1.2 million people in Michigan have already voted...this leads me to 2 questions. (one which I think I know the answer to)

1) Is it safe to assume that most of these votes would be Blue? (like is expected everywhere) And if so...

2) Could this be why the polls are tightening in the Peters Senate race...Nate Silver has brought up how some polls don't deal with the "already voted" part well.

That represents over 10% of the population of Michigan...

BTW 14.5 million votes already received. That is already 10% of what the totals were for 2016.
 
Handyman said:
So almost 1.2 million people in Michigan have already voted...this leads me to 2 questions. (one which I think I know the answer to)

1) Is it safe to assume that most of these votes would be Blue? (like is expected everywhere) And if so...

2) Could this be why the polls are tightening in the Peters Senate race...Nate Silver has brought up how some polls don't deal with the "already voted" part well.

That represents over 10% of the population of Michigan...

BTW 14.5 million votes already received. That is already 10% of what the totals were for 2016.
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Do pollsters routinely discard respondents who have already voted? This would seem to be the only way it would impact the polling data (if, as you note is suspected, blue voters are voting early).

For the life of me I don't understand why polls that show Biden's lead in Michigan to be growing slowly would also show Peter's lead shrinking. He seems wholly uncontroversial to me and I don't understand how anyone can split that ticket in 2020. Outside of the governors of Maryland or Massachusetts (neither of whom is running) splitting a ticket at the state or federal level seems like an impossibility.

If Peters loses, that puts the Democratic party's chance at retaking the senate in a bit of a bind. If he loses will the Dems take seats in Iowa or one of the pipe-dreams, like SC or KY? I doubt it, and it means they MUST win AZ, MN, CO and NC (polls all look good for that at least) to get to a 50-50 split (Jones has no prayer in AL unless Tommy Tubberville calls one of Roy Moore's teenage girlfriends for a date).

God, November 3rd can't get here soon enough.

*ETA* winning 4 seats from Rs won't even be enough if we lose Michigan... my math was off. Peters better not lose. polls showing the lead shrinking better be outliers
 
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aparch said:
If you can find 9mm let me know, its been difficult to find around Chicagoland.

*cue jokes about just driving to 79th and Damen and ask for some*
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Actually I have found 9mm to be a little harder to come by in WI than I would have expected. Maybe it's like that everywhere. And since all my firearms are of a certain Austrian brand in the 9mm variant, I'm keeping all that I can find. Gotta keep up with the MAGAts
 
WeAreNDHockey said:
Do pollsters routinely discard respondents who have already voted? This would seem to be the only way it would impact the polling data (if, as you note is suspected, blue voters are voting early).

For the life of me I don't understand why polls that show Biden's lead in Michigan to be growing slowly would also show Peter's lead shrinking. He seems wholly uncontroversial to me and I don't understand how anyone can split that ticket in 2020. Outside of the governors of Maryland or Massachusetts (neither of whom is running) splitting a ticket at the state or federal level seems like an impossibility.

If Peters loses, that puts the Democratic party's chance at retaking the senate in a bit of a bind. If he loses will the Dems take seats in Iowa or one of the pipe-dreams, like SC or KY? I doubt it, and it means they MUST win AZ, MN, CO and NC (polls all look good for that at least) to get to a 50-50 split (Jones has no prayer in AL unless Tommy Tubberville calls one of Roy Moore's teenage girlfriends for a date).

God, November 3rd can't get here soon enough.

*ETA* winning 4 seats from Rs won't even be enough if we lose Michigan... my math was off. Peters better not lose. polls showing the lead shrinking better be outliers
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I dont think they discard them, I dont think they even deal with them sometimes. I would assume (again way out of my depth) that it comes down to what the polls consider "likely voters" if that is who they are choosing to poll. If it is jut a generic population poll of people of age to vote I would assume it wouldn't be a factor.

I dunno the numbers just dont seem to add up. I mean I guess there could be lots of ticket splitting but that seems unlikely. If we are to assume that the majority of early voting/mail voting is Blue then having 10% of the votes in already should by all accounts be a good thing for Peters.

What say our resident Michiganders?
 
Handyman said:
So almost 1.2 million people in Michigan have already voted...this leads me to 2 questions. (one which I think I know the answer to)

1) Is it safe to assume that most of these votes would be Blue? (like is expected everywhere) And if so...

2) Could this be why the polls are tightening in the Peters Senate race...Nate Silver has brought up how some polls don't deal with the "already voted" part well.

That represents over 10% of the population of Michigan...

BTW 14.5 million votes already received. That is already 10% of what the totals were for 2016.
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I would guess it probably skews Biden by 15 or 20 (about double what he is currently polling in MI overall).
 
Pretty much what F2B&G said. Still a bunch of Repubs that will vote to prevent the Dems from controlling all three branches if they can stop it.
 
French Rage said:
538 moves GA to the lightest blue, on the back of a Quinnipiac poll showing Biden +7.
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If you're scoring at home, or even if you're alone, that's 368-170. Largest win in 24 years.

zjnkK
 
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