$5 Gas... It's De-Ja-Vu All Over Again...

[Kepler]

This man predicted 20,000 deaths. #Neverforget

He was only off by a million.

 

[Handyman]

Shockingly saw gas for $4.55/gallon on Cleveland's east side. Two weeks ago the same station was $5.09. Could the crash be coming?

$4 gas in early summer 2008, if not precipitating the wost economic crisis since the Great Depression was certainly a precursor. 6 months later it cost half that (or less in some places) and we were in the midst of the worst economic downturn in nearly a century.

But Janet Yellen isn't seeing a lot of things that are pointing to that, so I am breathing a sigh of relief.

A friend I trust that works in real estate said she believes the housing recession will be next spring. If that is true then a full on economic recession will come with it. That and Russia's little dick measuring contest will likely slide the developed world into a recession which should be fun for everyone!

 

[SJHovey]

Who was President again when that happened?

How about the next time you plan to post complete and utter nonsense you remind us that your opinions are fucking moronic and you never actually research anything before you post them you just pull them out of your azz and throw them against the wall like a fucking monkey. It will ignore all truth, logic and rationality, and while you will deny most of it comes straight from the horses azz that is Right Wing "Journalists" it will parallel them completely and will likely not even have the verbiage and crappy grammar changed in an effort to hide it. Your post will be mocked and ridiculed and you will cry about how there is groupthink, ignoring the fact that almost anyone with an iq over 13 can see how wrong about everything what you said truly is.

Too direct?

You can mock and ridicule it all you want, but it isn't wrong.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

A friend I trust that works in real estate said she believes the housing recession will be next spring. If that is true then a full on economic recession will come with it. That and Russia's little dick measuring contest will likely slide the developed world into a recession which should be fun for everyone!

Considering how so many peoples property tax value shot up over 20% for next year, that would be ironic timing. Counties were sure fast to jump values up this year for next years tax assessments, will see how fast they move to lower them if housing market falls

 

[aparch]

A friend I trust that works in real estate said she believes the housing recession will be next spring. If that is true then a full on economic recession will come with it. That and Russia's little dick measuring contest will likely slide the developed world into a recession which should be fun for everyone!

Any mention of the fun side affect of global wheat shortage?

 

[Swansong]

You can mock and ridicule it all you want, but it isn't wrong.

It's entirely wrong as it ignores almost all the factors involved. But hey, it convinces the Fox News crowd, so therefore it's enough.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Any mention of the fun side affect of global wheat shortage?

Yeah, everyone is fucking boned when that comes around as well. Governments are failing everywhere. And Governments are what decided this global supply chain was a good fucking idea.

 

[French Rage]

How about this message. Maybe next time, when you want to stand up and tell everyone you are going to "follow the science," you also tell them, "now, in doing so, we are going to spectacularly fuck up your economy, the likes of which you've probably never seen before. You won't be able to get products, and those that you can find are going to be much more expensive. Housing prices are going to skyrocket. The supply chain will be gorked, and the transportation industry will be a 78 truck pile up on Interstate 80. But we believe, from a medical standpoint, it's necessary to do that."

Too direct?

I'm trying to figure out what your point is here. Yes, I believe everyone knew the shutdowns were going to have definite reverberations. With an economy run on such a global, fine-tuned, just-in-time manner, even minor adjustments would be large aftershocks, to say nothing of major ones. The other solution was many many more dead; there was no answer where we didn't have negative repercussions, so we had to pick the least bad one. This was never sold as a perfect solution without any consequences and to pretend otherwise is ridiculous.

Unfortunately the public has the mindspan of a gnat, and also thinks if they have someone to blame it magically gets better (it does not). So they'll inevitably put back in power the same people who whistled Dixie (literally) as this all went down and allowed it all to develop in the first place.

 

[Swansong]

Plus, the idea that if we only had not done anything and just let people die in insane numbers while the rest of the world did mostly the right thing wouldn't have an unbelievable impact on the economy is just being willfully obtuse.

 

[Handyman]

Considering how so many peoples property tax value shot up over 20% for next year, that would be ironic timing. Counties were sure fast to jump values up this year for next years tax assessments, will see how fast they move to lower them if housing market falls

It is going to be interesting. I figured 2024 was D-Day but she shut me down hard on that saying next year for sure. I am still skeptical, but if she is right the cascade effect could be wild.

Thank god I got my house severely undervalued (like $70k under what it should have sold for) and have no intention of moving any time soon. A lot of people who bought at the top of the market though are gonna be in troooooooooooooooooooooooooouble. Sometimes people never learn.

(see also: government who never actually watch what is happening as your comment lays out)

 

[Handyman]

Plus, the idea that if we only had not done anything and just let people die in insane numbers while the rest of the world did mostly the right thing wouldn't have an unbelievable impact on the economy is just being willfully obtuse.

You think he cares? Seriously?

When people tell you who they are, believe them!

 

[psych]

I'm trying to figure out what your point is here. Yes, I believe everyone knew the shutdowns were going to have definite reverberations. With an economy run on such a global, fine-tuned, just-in-time manner, even minor adjustments would be large aftershocks, to say nothing of major ones. The other solution was many many more dead; there was no answer where we didn't have negative repercussions, so we had to pick the least bad one. This was never sold as a perfect solution without any consequences and to pretend otherwise is ridiculous.

Unfortunately the public has the mindspan of a gnat, and also thinks if they have someone to blame it magically gets better (it does not). So they'll inevitably put back in power the same people who whistled Dixie (literally) as this all went down and allowed it all to develop in the first place.

Does an economy that has fewer people running it operate more efficiently? Asking for those who were pleading with us to recognize the economic costs when we said then- and still now- that lives saved meant more than the myriad economical costs that would inevitably follow.
I’d personally see the country do the same thing over again- maybe double the length of time in lockdown and add in a functioning presidential administration.

 

[French Rage]

Plus, the idea that if we only had not done anything and just let people die in insane numbers while the rest of the world did mostly the right thing wouldn't have an unbelievable impact on the economy is just being willfully obtuse.

Exactly. 3-4 million dead instead of over 1 million isn't exactly something you just sweep under the rug. Additionally, it's not like without shutdowns life would have been completely normal. The majority of people would have still modified their behavior, both in terms of work and consuming, as they still would have been seeing the effects of a more widespread and more fatal virus than even we saw. Even when restrictions were lifted various industries still were affected, as the lifting of restrictions didn't mean everything was immediately back out in large crowd licking each other's faces (Jeb's mom notwithstanding). So it was in no way an all or nothing choice economically.

 

[SJHovey]

I'm trying to figure out what your point is here. Yes, I believe everyone knew the shutdowns were going to have definite reverberations. With an economy run on such a global, fine-tuned, just-in-time manner, even minor adjustments would be large aftershocks, to say nothing of major ones. The other solution was many many more dead; there was no answer where we didn't have negative repercussions, so we had to pick the least bad one. This was never sold as a perfect solution without any consequences and to pretend otherwise is ridiculous.

Unfortunately the public has the mindspan of a gnat, and also thinks if they have someone to blame it magically gets better (it does not). So they'll inevitably put back in power the same people who whistled Dixie (literally) as this all went down and allowed it all to develop in the first place.

You are not wrong in stating we were definitely between a rock and a hard place. I also agree there is no perfect solution.

Personally, I hope I'm still alive 20-25 years from now, after scientists and economists and doctors will have had a chance to study and think about the pandemic, the various responses to it, and the after-effects on economies. I'm going to be interested in their findings. I also would really be interested in seeing how we will respond to the next pandemic. I have a hunch it's not going to be in the same way, but I don't know what that response will be.

Edit. But if psych asks really nice, I'm willing to offer up a prediction.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Exactly. 3-4 million dead instead of over 1 million isn't exactly something you just sweep under the rug. Additionally, it's not like without shutdowns life would have been completely normal. The majority of people would have still modified their behavior, both in terms of work and consuming, as they still would have been seeing the effects of a more widespread and more fatal virus than even we saw. Even when restrictions were lifted various industries still were affected, as the lifting of restrictions didn't mean everything was immediately back out in large crowd licking each other's faces (Jeb's mom notwithstanding). So it was in no way an all or nothing choice economically.

I think Government just didn't handle the pandemic well at all. Planning for when we come out of it what was going to happen didn't happen. They're just letting the private sector handle it and the private sector absolutely blows at solving large scale problems. The Baby Formula thing and now the Gas thing are two great examples of it. Hell, by all reports the gas companies KNEW this was going to happen and WANTED it to happen cause they're getting theirs now. In Spades.

 

[SJHovey]

Plus, the idea that if we only had not done anything and just let people die in insane numbers while the rest of the world did mostly the right thing wouldn't have an unbelievable impact on the economy is just being willfully obtuse.

There is a big difference between doing "nothing" (which I have never argued in favor of) and the response we took. Denying that is also being willfully obtuse.

 

[French Rage]

You are not wrong in stating we were definitely between a rock and a hard place. I also agree there is no perfect solution.

Personally, I hope I'm still alive 20-25 years from now, after scientists and economists and doctors will have had a chance to study and think about the pandemic, the various responses to it, and the after-effects on economies. I'm going to be interested in their findings. I also would really be interested in seeing how we will respond to the next pandemic. I have a hunch it's not going to be in the same way, but I don't know what that response will be.

Edit. But if psych asks really nice, I'm willing to offer up a prediction.

Yes, a larger sample size of data will help us make decisions going forward. But it's only part of the solution. The other part of the solution is to have people in charge who actually understand the value of those studies, take time to surround themselves with people who know and understand the value, and take the time and money to get blueprints and plan together based off of those studies, even though they may never have to be used. It's the thankless part of government work, the part that always get decried as a waste of the people's money, but it's one of the main parts silently greasing the wheels of our society in the background.

And one group spent four years completely ignoring it. Read "The Fifth Risk" by Michael Lewis.

 

[French Rage]

I think Government just didn't handle the pandemic well at all. Planning for when we come out of it what was going to happen didn't happen. They're just letting the private sector handle it and the private sector absolutely blows at solving large scale problems. The Baby Formula thing and now the Gas thing are two great examples of it. Hell, by all reports the gas companies KNEW this was going to happen and WANTED it to happen cause they're getting theirs now. In Spades.

I mean, when you had half of the government as various levels not just sitting by doing nothing, but actively working against, the solutions during and immediately after the crisis, I don't know what was magically supposed to happen to get everyone working in tandem towards a meaningful solution.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

I mean, when you had half of the government as various levels not just sitting by doing nothing, but actively working against, the solutions during and immediately after the crisis, I don't know what was magically supposed to happen to get everyone working in tandem towards a meaningful solution.

You lose your elections, Block legislation and then turn around and blame the dems for all the misery. Works like a charm

 

[ScoobyDoo]

I mean, when you had half of the government as various levels not just sitting by doing nothing, but actively working against, the solutions during and immediately after the crisis, I don't know what was magically supposed to happen to get everyone working in tandem towards a meaningful solution.

Yes, we have an entire party in a two party system whose entire platform is to destroy the government and everything about it, except their personal jobs.