5 dollar gas...are we ready?

[Kepler]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Made me think, if anyone wants a 2000 to 3000 dollar raise this year, move closer to work

When you live in the country and work in the inner burbs / city, the calculation comes down the whether a high commuting cost is worth a big break in cost of living. Living in a rural county outside the DC metro area, the cost-per-interior-foot of housing is about 40 cents on the NoVa/DC dollar (the cost-per-acre is pennies on the dollar). That's worth (financially, albeit not spiritually) an 80-mile round-trip daily commute.

Still, my wife and I have agreed that when we move next we're going to live in a midsize town near work, grocery store, etc. Solitude is getting really spendy.

 

[unh_hockey]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

When you live in the country and work in the inner burbs / city, the calculation comes down the whether a high commuting cost is worth a big break in cost of living. Living in a rural county outside the DC metro area, the cost-per-interior-foot of housing is about 40 cents on the NoVa/DC dollar (the cost-per-acre is pennies on the dollar). That's worth (financially, albeit not spiritually) an 80-mile round-trip daily commute.

Still, my wife and I have agreed that when we move next we're going to live in a midsize town near work, grocery store, etc. Solitude is getting really spendy.

Right, I guess I was presuming everyone lived in a place like New Hampshire where the costs are pretty consistent wherever you go. For example, Portsmouth and Manchester you pay roughly 450 dollars a month if your renting an apartment. By the way, where did you find the cost/ sq foot number you listed? It would be cool to browse through those…

When I first got out of college, I was against anything that had a commute. Maybe part of my bias was driving in mass out and into boston every day. Now as I get a little older and wiser, I see a commute more as a necessary evil and compromise. Those with girlfriends or wives have to consider their trek to work as well. Many often simply feel more comfortable in a certain place, even if that means a hour long trek each day.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

So I heard on a talk radio station that they're thinking gas prices have plateaued. I think it may just be easing off for now and it will go up around Memorial Day, but I don't foresee $5 gasoline anytime this year. If prices remain stable come Christmas, we may see it in 2012.

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I grew up in the country, and just can't deal with living in the city, I would go crazy if I lived in the city. It annoyed me to no end when I've had to live in the city before. Unfortunately, work is in the city. I have about a 20 mile commute, so it isn't too bad, since work is in the suburbs instead of downtown.

If prices are going up, they need to do away with the asinine charge limits at pay-at-the-pump gas stations. It is bull**** to have to swipe a credit card 3 times just to fill up the tank.

 

[MavHockey14]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

So I heard on a talk radio station that they're thinking gas prices have plateaued. I think it may just be easing off for now and it will go up around Memorial Day, but I don't foresee $5 gasoline anytime this year. If prices remain stable come Christmas, we may see it in 2012.

It's hit $5.00 out west.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

It's a complicated calculation.

As Kepler indicated, cost of space can be enormous in a densely populated area. If you don't have a family, it's probably not such a huge deal to live in a smallish centrally-located apartment. However, once you're married and have kids, suddenly space becomes a huge issue, not to mention the safety of the area in which you live and the quality of the school district. Personally, I couldn't ever justify living an hour away from my job - that's simply too much time spent each day in the car (regardless of gas cost - to me time is the primary factor here).

 

[unh_hockey]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

It's a complicated calculation.

As Kepler indicated, cost of space can be enormous in a densely populated area. If you don't have a family, it's probably not such a huge deal to live in a smallish centrally-located apartment. However, once you're married and have kids, suddenly space becomes a huge issue, not to mention the safety of the area in which you live and the quality of the school district. Personally, I couldn't ever justify living an hour away from my job - that's simply too much time spent each day in the car (regardless of gas cost - to me time is the primary factor here).

I never thought about cost of living how Kepler put it. As someone who was looking for work for a while, I always had some trouble knowing what a good salary would be depending where the job was. When looking in places like Cambridge MA or Waltham, I would ask for significantly higher salaries than a job in New Hampshire, or the mid west as an example.

Regarding commutes: 1 hour is not created equal. Having done both a longer-ish commute in both Mass. And new Hampshire, I can safely say the hour commute in NH is significantly better than the one in mass. Its less stressful driving which means a lot. However, 2 hours per day of your time is gone which is something one could use to go to the gym, read, pursue other hobbies etc. It adds up. Also don’t forget car depreciation - wear and tear adds up.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Also don't forget car depreciation - wear and tear adds up.

...and longer highway commutes (more mileage) is actually better for your vehicle than shorter city commutes (with lots of stoplights).

I just wouldn't want to give up that much time per day to the act of driving (regardless of how easy / low-stress the actual drive is). It's bad enough handing over 9 hours to my employer. Tacking on another two to that just to get to and from work would basically kill the idea of doing anything when I'm on my work schedule. Eff that.

 

[unh_hockey]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

...and longer highway commutes (more mileage) is actually better for your vehicle than shorter city commutes (with lots of stoplights).

I just wouldn't want to give up that much time per day to the act of driving (regardless of how easy / low-stress the actual drive is). It's bad enough handing over 9 hours to my employer. Tacking on another two to that just to get to and from work would basically kill the idea of doing anything when I'm on my work schedule. Eff that.

correct, if you want to get very specific. Its highly reccomended that if you leave a car idle for long stretches that you get the engine up to temperature at least once a week or so. This keeps the oil flowing and the water out of the fuel lines. Also remember, you can get small woodland animals make their homes in your postons and other crevases. A car sitting around a lot is in a lot more trouble than one that hits the highway once a week.

not to mince words, I am in total agreement with you. I love my 'time'. Being single, I can afford to comprimise nothing should I chose. Its a perk of being single! But that, is a subject for another thread.

Flag dude, do you mind elaborating why you dont think gas in most places will eclipse 5 $?

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

And then there's this complete bull****: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/04/25/energy-america-oil-drilling-denial/

****ing environmentalists, just go ahead and die.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Flag dude, do you mind elaborating why you dont think gas in most places will eclipse 5 $?

I didn't say $5 ever, just this summer. Yes, it will go up for Memorial Day, probably also for the summer (I'd say a high national average of $4.25), but we have to consider that, like any product (even something as inelastic as energy fuels), there will be a resistance level. People won't be taking their summer driving vacations, just like 2008. Other unnecessary driving will cut down. Now that white-collared folk are prepared from what they experienced three years ago, there'll be more of a desire to work from home. You could blame speculators as well, but even they will make a decision as to when to take profits. It won't be as drastic as what we saw with the bust in September 2008, though. However, if we don't see very much of a fall drop, then by Memorial Day 2012 we'll see some $5 gasoline nationally.

I know that, as a slight speculator, I'm hanging on, and considering purchase at the end of the summer.

 

[NMU8405]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

It's hit $5.00 out west.

Eastern Bias

 

[unh_hockey]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

And then there's this complete bull****: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/04/25/energy-america-oil-drilling-denial/

****ing environmentalists, just go ahead and die.

Said it before, and i'll say it again...abolish the useless middle man that is the EPA. They slow everything up, and consume a ton of money in the process. Eek, I am starting to sound like a republican

While we are on articles:

http://www.fmxconnect.com/fmxenergy...-Seasonality-of-Crude-Oil-amp3b-Gasoline.aspx


While this is from a speculators point of view, it outlines what some believe to be general trends over the past few years. I am generally not a big fan of this sort of technical analysis when it comes to markets, but it seems that they outline the trends ( broadly) fairly accuratly. I guess I do not understand the inner workings of supply/ demand in the oil industry, but it makes sense that the largest producers have to perform yearly Preventative maintinance schedules during slow times, and ramp up production during 'fast' times. So what I am getting here is that we basically supply and use oil roughly at the same rates with very little 'margain' ?

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Eastern Bias

Ken's Realization About Citgo Hydrocarbons???

 

[Almington]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

And then there's this complete bull****: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/04/25/energy-america-oil-drilling-denial/

****ing environmentalists, just go ahead and die.

Silly me wanting clean air to breath and water to drink.

The ruling isn't so much telling Shell you can't drill ever, but one part of the EPA telling a different part to do it's job and correctly follow the procedures and regulations to grant permits.

Shell was caught up in a bureaucratic delay and should be able to proceed next year.

The actual result from the ERB: Link

Note: NAAQS: National Ambient Air Quality Standards (basically how polluted the air is allowed to be)

From the Link above:

The [ERB] concludes that the [EPA] Region clearly erred when it relied solely on demonstrated compliance with the then-existing annual NO2 NAAQS as sufficient to find that the Alaska Native population would not experience disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effects from the permitted activity. The Region’s reliance solely on compliance with the annual NO2 standard when it issued the Chukchi and Beaufort Permits on March 31 and April 9, 2010, was clearly erroneous given that the [EPA] Administrator proposed a rule, published in the Federal Register on July 15, 2009, which made available updated scientific evidence supporting the [EPA] Administrator’s proposal to supplement the annual NO2 NAAQS with a 1-hour NO2 NAAQS. The [EPA] Administrator concluded that the annual NO2 NAAQS alone did not provide requisite protection of public health and established a supplemental 1-hour NO2 NAAQS in a final rule published in the Federal Register on February 9, 2010, several weeks prior to the Region issuing the Chukchi and Beaufort Permits.

Basically the EPA Region 10 didn't consider the changes to the NAAQS for NO2 between the time that the permits were filed and when they were approved. The ERB basically told the EPA Region 10 to go back and look at ALL of the emissions and make sure that they comply with both the current NAAQS and meet the requirements for PSD (Prevention of Significant Deterioration) which states that if an area is in compliance with NAAQS certain "reasonable" emission control devices must be used to keep the pollution levels down.

Shell must have reached a point where they couldn't do anything this year to move forward with this, but I suspect that by next year they would be able to. I have a hard time believe that a pair of icebreakers would increase the NO2 levels to anywhere near the NAAQS, but the EPA region 10 official to green lighted this left a huge opening for environmental groups to challenge the ruling and delayed everything.

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Assuming for the sake of argument that Shell is the victim. Sure - bureaucratic 'capture' by special interests sucks. You know what sucks even more? No bureaucracy.

Eliminating a federal agency doesn't eliminate law. It just eliminates enforcement. So one possibility is that you're left with a whole mess of dead-letter laws that people and corporations violate with impunity -- because there's nothing to stop them.

But that's not very likely. Because there *is* still one way to try to get laws enforced, and it makes even the federal bureaucracy look efficient by comparison: Litigation.

Of course, given the asymmetry of resources, law-breakers will probably win about 99.5% of disputes. But every once in a while, a claimant will get a lucky break, and then an outraged jury will make an example of the "unlucky" corporation by awarding 751 metric sh**-tons of punitive damages. And the the law-breaker will scream bloody murder over being singled out. And then there'll be political controversy in Congress over what should be done over the sorry state of affairs (does tort reform ever go out of style?). And a bipartisan blue-ribbon commission will be convened. And then their conclusions will be summarily ignored. And the "debate" will drag on for a bit longer. And then, finally, in a paroxysm of staged bipartisanship, Congress will unleash its compromise solution on the unsuspecting public. And lo, that compromise will look an awful lot like bureaucracy.

[start over]

It's fun to point at something that looks broken and say "Fu-- it." Let's kill the thing. Once in a while, that works. But a lot of the time, there was a reason that broken-looking thing was created. In those cases, there's an effective (but hard) response, and a fun, but kind of drama-queen response.

$.02857

 

[walrus]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

It's fun to point at something that looks broken and say "Fu-- it." Let's kill the thing. Once in a while, that works. But a lot of the time, there was a reason that broken-looking thing was created. In those cases, there's an effective (but hard) response, and a fun, but kind of drama-queen response.

$.02857

How long have they been trying to get the permits to dril there? I heard years? Maybe it is broken

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

How long have they been trying to get the permits to dril there? I heard years? Maybe it is broken

It's severely broken. The knuckleheads in the gulf polluted our water cause the laws they were breaking were not enforced. Meanwhile the EPA is setting energy policy. Remember when America used to just do things better, faster, cleaner, and cheaper than the rest of the World? Yeah, I've forgotten too.

 

[Almington]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

How long have they been trying to get the permits to dril there? I heard years? Maybe it is broken

Initial Permit: Dec 11, 2008
Permit application accepted: July 31, 2009
Permit of PSD posted for Public comment: August 20, 2009 to Oct 20, 2009.
Revised Air permit posted for public comment: Jan 8, 2010 to Feb 17, 2010.
Permit Approved by EPA: March 31, 2010
Appeal filled by Inupiat Community of the Arctic Slope, the Alaska Eskimo Whaling Commission, the Center for Biological Diversity and Earth Justice in May 2010
Permits remitted to EPA Region 10 for review by EAB: Dec 30, 2010.

I suspect that the revised perments are undergoing analysis and public comment and no final decision has been made and Shell just ran out of time to act this summer.

http://yosemite.epa.gov/R10/AIRPAGE.NSF/Permits/ocsap

It isn't the EPA's fault either, they are required to hold the permits open of public review under 40 CFR Part 124. It's quite the catch 22, on one hand we need to have public comment process and appeals process so that these government organizations act appropriately. But that requires that the whole process is slowed down significantly.

 

[unh_hockey]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

A great article that sums up what we are seeing, and not just with oil

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/GMO April.pdf

The central idea is that geometric growth is mathematically unsustainable by design. Rather than assume falling prices, as we have seen time and time again in the last 100 years, we should accept steadily increasing prices solely based on what can be supplied to a growing population. While everything is a quagmire of confusion- when you distill it all down to a leveling off of natural resources compared to a quickly growing population, we see that there isn’t enough to go around once you hit a limit. Thus either currency loses its value, or prices of commodities will go up but most likely both.

It’s a bit of a long read and I am not through it yet myself. Maybe at the end of the day, we shouldn’t be surprised at raising gas prices in the long term?