5 dollar gas...are we ready?

[unh_hockey]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Exactly. The direction to go for these applications is definitely hybrid diesel. Tons of torque when you need to tow, 40-50 mpg when you're just driving around. Electric vehicles can't be used for doing real work, if the batteries today can only get a matchbox car 100 miles, what they hell is going to happen when you toss 20,000 behind a electric truck?

Right, so basically electric is eliminated from use in any heavy freight senario. As i said in my earlier post, the electric niche will be quite small ( read under 0.5% market penetration which is where good hybrids are at now). The limitations are mostly scale, cost, and function. Rather than throw subsidies at the problem, the US should be looking at solutions that can work and are available now. I'd love to see Diesel in the US , obviously, so maybe they could incentivise engineers to work on less emissions and more efficient motors? What commuter in this age wouldn't want a 50 MPG commuter car?

Twitchboy, spot on as well. Long distance trucking on battaries? hehe, not so much.

The US energy policy is a quagmire of politics, squabbling, lack of scientific acumen, and the inability to pick up a simple calculator. I'll be bold in saying that the US needs more engineers in charge when it comes to making choices. At least their choices are based in "reality" and not some far away land called " Energy independence".

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

With the mileage tax that some states are proposing, it may be more efficient to go back to the guzzlers.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

That said, the weak dollar, while a contributing factor, is hardly the prominent one. Oil is a global market, the rising demand in places like China, India, and the other developing economies has played a much bigger role than the Federal Reserve.

Oil is up almost 30% year over year ($85 last April, $110 now) while the dollar has dropped 10% in that same period. What this means is that on the basis of the weakening dollar alone, the oil price would be somewhere around $93.50 per barrel. The remainder of the price increase is due to a combination of market speculation and supply/demand. I've seen claims that speculators have driven prices up by as much as 10-15%, but I have no idea how that sort of calculation is made (or if the market analysts are merely pulling numbers out of their ***es).

 

[Twitch Boy]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Exactly. The direction to go for these applications is definitely hybrid diesel. Tons of torque when you need to tow, 40-50 mpg when you're just driving around. Electric vehicles can't be used for doing real work, if the batteries today can only get a matchbox car 100 miles, what they hell is going to happen when you toss 20,000 behind a electric truck?

That'd work too.

One of the big advantages of electric motors is that they make 100% of max torque in the low end, so it at least could have some place in a heavy-duty vehicle. The problem is, like you said, 100% of nada is still nada.

A 4-door F-150 that would get better gas mileage than most cars? Sold. It would do it all - highway cruise, room for a family, haul a trailer, get to work in a blizzard, safe in a crash. And it wouldn't be an insult to drive.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Electric cars would make the most sense in California (smog problem, densely populated).

Personally, I'd rather rely on proven gas-only technology until all the kinks are worked out of the hybrids/electrics.

Just as one example, VW's diesel options are quoted at 30 city / 40+ highway.

 

[Almington]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

The problem I have with these electric cars is that they're all 2WD nerd rockets. Good for shuttling people around town, but not for much else.

ISn't that what a majority of american use their cars for anyway? If you have one auto and want a multi-use one I have no problem with it. But the 2nd cars that most famlies have could very easily be a 2WD people shuttle with very little loss of utility.

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Just as one example, VW's diesel options are quoted at 30 city / 40+ highway.

In reality, VW diesels have been known to get 50+ on the highway.

Diesel is definitely a step in the right direction. I know for a fact that we were close to seeing a much larger diesel market presence in the US, until the big 3 went down. Now, not so much.

unh_hockey: no need to give incentives to engineers to develop cleaner, more efficient diesels. It has already happened. Efficiency is approaching the limits of an IC engine, unless we start capturing lost heat energy, and the air coming out of the exhaust pipes of any on-road diesel sold today is cleaner than the air going in the air filter.

 

[walrus]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

. I know for a fact that we were close to seeing a much larger diesel market presence in the US, until the big 3 went down. Now, not so much.

That meet current emissions standards? Why wouldn't VW and Ford already have them here when they have them in Europe?

No plans to sell in US
http://www.insideline.com/ford/focus/67-mpg-ford-focus-econetic-debuts.html

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Maybe there's preventing of diesel vehicles because it's easy to create homemade bio-diesel and the government can't collect fuel taxes on it.

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

That meet current emissions standards? Why wouldn't VW and Ford already have them here when they have them in Europe?

No plans to sell in US
http://www.insideline.com/ford/focus/67-mpg-ford-focus-econetic-debuts.html

http://news.pickuptrucks.com/2010/03/chryler-and-cummins-restart-lightduty-diesel-discussions.html

I can't say more than just posting articles about it, I'm not sure what is public knowledge and what is considered confidential within the company.

edit:
http://www.carguideweb.com/articles/4746/

 

[unh_hockey]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

In reality, VW diesels have been known to get 50+ on the highway.

Diesel is definitely a step in the right direction. I know for a fact that we were close to seeing a much larger diesel market presence in the US, until the big 3 went down. Now, not so much.

unh_hockey: no need to give incentives to engineers to develop cleaner, more efficient diesels. It has already happened. Efficiency is approaching the limits of an IC engine, unless we start capturing lost heat energy, and the air coming out of the exhaust pipes of any on-road diesel sold today is cleaner than the air going in the air filter.

I am unfamiliar with the whole diesel market, so I am sort of thinking out loud on this thread. At least to the layperson, it seems that anything that can double the MPG of otto cycle engines ought to be highly sought after. Basically what I read and hear is that the additional output hinders the Diesel greatly in the USA. Checkmate for the time being…

Diesel has its downfalls too, and would need more thought in colder climates. Gelling of the substance occurs at lower temperatures. Diesel would have to be regionally controlled so that it could run in engines in Minnesota and in engines in a warmer place like Virginia. Also, if algae ever takes off, the sulfer content of even B20 blends is lower for those fuels. So keep your fingers crossed for the little green guys growing in your pool =)

 

[unofan]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

The US energy policy is a quagmire of politics, squabbling, lack of scientific acumen, and the inability to pick up a simple calculator. I'll be bold in saying that the US needs more engineers in charge when it comes to making choices. At least their choices are based in "reality" and not some far away land called " Energy independence".

Because clearly the environment, national defense, foreign relations, economics, and numerous other sectors have nothing to do with energy policy. It's entirely an engineering issue...
(this is why the Dilbert's of the world are stuck in cubicles - they can't see the forest for the trees).

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I am unfamiliar with the whole diesel market, so I am sort of thinking out loud on this thread. At least to the layperson, it seems that anything that can double the MPG of otto cycle engines ought to be highly sought after. Basically what I read and hear is that the additional output hinders the Diesel greatly in the USA. Checkmate for the time being…

Diesel has its downfalls too, and would need more thought in colder climates. Gelling of the substance occurs at lower temperatures. Diesel would have to be regionally controlled so that it could run in engines in Minnesota and in engines in a warmer place like Virginia. Also, if algae ever takes off, the sulfer content of even B20 blends is lower for those fuels. So keep your fingers crossed for the little green guys growing in your pool =)

I can just see a new breed of living organism rights activists coming to fruition...

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I am unfamiliar with the whole diesel market, so I am sort of thinking out loud on this thread. At least to the layperson, it seems that anything that can double the MPG of otto cycle engines ought to be highly sought after. Basically what I read and hear is that the additional output hinders the Diesel greatly in the USA. Checkmate for the time being…

Diesel has its downfalls too, and would need more thought in colder climates. Gelling of the substance occurs at lower temperatures. Diesel would have to be regionally controlled so that it could run in engines in Minnesota and in engines in a warmer place like Virginia. Also, if algae ever takes off, the sulfer content of even B20 blends is lower for those fuels. So keep your fingers crossed for the little green guys growing in your pool =)

Temperature is not a problem. All across the northern US and Canada diesel engines are used during cold weather with no problem. The system as of now begins fuel blending in October and steps up in December. #2 (summer) diesel is good down to approximately 0 degrees, though most will quote a temp a little higher than that for some safety factor, the second step is good down to about -20 degrees and the winter blend is good down to -40 degrees. If it gets colder than that, you run #1 diesel. The service stations and oil companies automatically change the blend with the seasons so you never have to even think about it. Also, running a winter blend in warmer climates doesn't cause any problems, you may get slightly worse fuel economy on the winter blend, but it won't cause engine damage or poor performance. With that said, don't run #1 if you don't have to, because that can cause shortened engine life, due to the lack of lubrication in the fuel, the wax in #2 diesel is what gels, but it is also what helps extend engine life.

 

[walrus]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

http://news.pickuptrucks.com/2010/03/chryler-and-cummins-restart-lightduty-diesel-discussions.html

I can't say more than just posting articles about it, I'm not sure what is public knowledge and what is considered confidential within the company.

edit:
http://www.carguideweb.com/articles/4746/

. VW couldn't sell their diesels in Maine until Ultra low Sulfur Diesel came out(2 years ago?) You could go to NH and bring one back but VW dealers in Maine couldn't sell one to you. Tons of diesels PUs in Maine.

 

[walrus]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Diesel has its downfalls too, and would need more thought in colder climates. Gelling of the substance occurs at lower temperatures. Diesel would have to be regionally controlled so that it could run in engines in Minnesota and in engines in a warmer place like Virginia. Also, if algae ever takes off, the sulfer content of even B20 blends is lower for those fuels. So keep your fingers crossed for the little green guys growing in your pool =)

This is already done, Irving Oil has the best Diesel in the Northeast. You won't hear of any congealing issues using their fuel. When we have a real cold snap, -20 type weather you will see some flatlander truckers caught with their pants down using southern fuel up here. Might work in Fla or Texas but not in Maine. Most trucks have fuel heaters also, large size supply lines that aren't affected by congealed fuel, this also keeps problems with fuel at bay. Of course this isn't the case with diesel cars. Once you own a diesel you learn where to buy fuel

 

[amherstblackbear]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

The problem I have with these electric cars is that they're all 2WD nerd rockets. Good for shuttling people around town, but not for much else.

As a nerd who mainly gets around town and flies any distance longer than a couple hours, I don't see what the big deal is.

Seriously - it's not an either/or proposition. Just arguing against the notion (propaganda?) that there's no market for them. There could be.

There's also a market for diesels. One of the most fun drives I've had was the diesel VW Touareg. I know, I know . . . they're kind of poseur SUVs (or, to my enviro friends, they're SUVs, period).

But VW's 10-cylinder turbodiesel has the torque of a small hydro plant (553 ft.-lbs. at 2000 rpm). I'm not sure how much mileage an equivalent gas engine would get, but probably not 25mpg highway...

 

[Patman]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

(this is why the Dilbert's of the world are stuck in cubicles - they can't see the forest for the trees).

unlike the artists, teachers, and lawyers who wouldn't understand science or math if it slapped them in the face and danced on their kitchen counter.... but of course they all seem to know how to save the world and will make us pay for it.

Don't even try to defend out piece-meal irrational bureaucratic system. Its not worth it.

edit: the problem is that really only a select, and chosen, class of persons ever really get to argue these things and they're done with an absolutist political edge...

I am MORE than willing to believe we have quite a few efficiencies that could come out of our society that would come if we'd slaughter some sacred cows and let the minds go to work. The environmental movement has done a good job of telling (enforcing upon us) what can and cannot be considered. This group which sets to radicalize young children who can barely add controls a good segment of what we can do with cars and what kinds of fuel we can use... good luck with that. To me, I think we'd be better off if we are all a little bit more Dilbert and a little less credentialed-class yuppie.

 

[Patman]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

ech, thats even worse than I thought when I posted this thread. I believe goldman called for lower futures prices, but it would seem they don't have a good pulse on the market and said futures finished something like 3-5 dollars higher than they thought. That said, not sure anyone is gullible enough to hold short positions given the instabilites and uncertain future as referenced in this article.

The fed and uncle sam need to stop playing these ****ty games ala QE2, and start instilling faith ( LOL) and stability into the USD. So far it seems they are trying their best to do the exact opposite. The article suggests a inverse correlation of the dollar to crude prices , and if thats the case and we have more QE, than oil prices are going to suck.

And now for my favorite plug, the carbon tax. Ask yourself this. How fair would it be for freight companies who rely on burning petrol to do business to ALSO tax them? Basically its one big double dip. Price go up and they get taxed for it. I really hope no carbon taxing goes into effect expecially considering how volitile energy costs are.

QE2 was hilarious because it was the specter of deflation... deflation of household goods? No. Deflation of utilities? No. Deflation of ... well... you get the picture... they aren't worried about the deflation of anything most of us will buy... they're worried about the deflation of stocks and other financial instruments because they're all still trying to deleverage themselves from various types of financial products... of course it also helps that it tries to devalue our national debt. But the bottom line... we're seeing inflation because they're trying to stop a deflation in the top of the markets and not on the ground floor where they rest of us are... we're paying for NYC's mistakes.

 

[LynahFan]

Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Because clearly the environment, national defense, foreign relations, economics, and numerous other sectors have nothing to do with energy policy. It's entirely an engineering issue...
(this is why the Dilbert's of the world are stuck in cubicles - they can't see the forest for the trees).

I thought this administration was going to put science back in its rightful place in the decision making process? Well, unless of course science doesn't support such sacred cows as green energy, clean coal, corn ethanol, etc...