Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?
Has anyone (other than Creationists) suggested otherwise?
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5 dollar gas...are we ready?
- Thread starter unh_hockey
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unh_hockey
pain is temporary pride is forever
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?
It’s a bleak picture when you break down the numbers. Any inefficient method ( photosynthesis, chemical storage) is ‘good enough’ if its been around for, say, a few billion years. Yet, we are pretty greedy and are going through what we have pretty dang quickly. I am of the belief that many generations from now won’t have it as ‘good’ as we had it during this petrol era. Will we ‘invent’ our way out of it? We still use a combustion engine from hundreds of years ago. I doubt very much has been advanced since Tesla’s time, sans quantum physics. Seems we are inventing radically new things doesn’t happen too often. Most everything else in the engineering world can be distilled down to mixing, combusting things, and heating things up, or cutting them.
The best we have done on the energy front are batteries, and they don’t store as much energy as a pile of old tires ( sad but true).
Entropy will (might) spell death for the Universe someday in the form of heat death. As for humans, we might just have petrol withdrawals once we are well past peak, which will be a form of heat death. **** you entropy, **** you.
It’s a bleak picture when you break down the numbers. Any inefficient method ( photosynthesis, chemical storage) is ‘good enough’ if its been around for, say, a few billion years. Yet, we are pretty greedy and are going through what we have pretty dang quickly. I am of the belief that many generations from now won’t have it as ‘good’ as we had it during this petrol era. Will we ‘invent’ our way out of it? We still use a combustion engine from hundreds of years ago. I doubt very much has been advanced since Tesla’s time, sans quantum physics. Seems we are inventing radically new things doesn’t happen too often. Most everything else in the engineering world can be distilled down to mixing, combusting things, and heating things up, or cutting them.
The best we have done on the energy front are batteries, and they don’t store as much energy as a pile of old tires ( sad but true).
Entropy will (might) spell death for the Universe someday in the form of heat death. As for humans, we might just have petrol withdrawals once we are well past peak, which will be a form of heat death. **** you entropy, **** you.
Terrierbyassociation
Fight Cancer, Wherever You Find It
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?
4.279 for regular gas today. Premium was 4.479.
4.279 for regular gas today. Premium was 4.479.
unh_hockey
pain is temporary pride is forever
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?
Nice try, but that wasn’t my point. I am not talking about inventions which better human civilization - I am referring to truly new human inventions. Quantum physics does indeed belong on that list so I’ll agree there. Although one could argue how much the Manhattan project benefitted man - I am sure several members of that team would pose the same question. That’s a digression.
Our genetics and modern medicine is impressive, and we have extended our lifetimes a while longer than our predicessors. However, we still know very little about life - which in my mind is natures far superior machine to anything we can ever hope to create. Heck, can we cure the common cold? Many of our antibiotics are from nature, so how much credit can we take for those?
My thesis is that I don’t see us ‘out inventing’ nature on an energy source as abundant and reliable as petrol. Look how far the battery has come since the early 1900s. Nuclear power plants even uses central concepts to old engines- the only thing that is different is that it’s a decaying reaction causing heat, and not a wood burned fire.
Nice try, but that wasn’t my point. I am not talking about inventions which better human civilization - I am referring to truly new human inventions. Quantum physics does indeed belong on that list so I’ll agree there. Although one could argue how much the Manhattan project benefitted man - I am sure several members of that team would pose the same question. That’s a digression.
Our genetics and modern medicine is impressive, and we have extended our lifetimes a while longer than our predicessors. However, we still know very little about life - which in my mind is natures far superior machine to anything we can ever hope to create. Heck, can we cure the common cold? Many of our antibiotics are from nature, so how much credit can we take for those?
My thesis is that I don’t see us ‘out inventing’ nature on an energy source as abundant and reliable as petrol. Look how far the battery has come since the early 1900s. Nuclear power plants even uses central concepts to old engines- the only thing that is different is that it’s a decaying reaction causing heat, and not a wood burned fire.
Rimbaud
New member
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?
How does observing the universe and discovering how it works equate to a truly new human invention?
How does observing the universe and discovering how it works equate to a truly new human invention?
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?
The thing about "bettering human civilization" is we're always hidebound by current priorities. We think we're better off because we have lots of fun toys (and better dentists). Prior periods of civilization would think our lives are pure misery because we're philosophically infantile, spiritually morbid, and socially atomized. Whatever comes next will re-envision all of history to assume it is the pinnacle of all human evolution. So we don't really ever have to worry about civilization "falling" -- all it does is change the cover story.
Of course, to accept that we have to accept everything we're proud of from aviation to antibiotics is just so much seafoam, and that's not a normal or healthy way of viewing one's contemporary surroundings.
The thing about "bettering human civilization" is we're always hidebound by current priorities. We think we're better off because we have lots of fun toys (and better dentists). Prior periods of civilization would think our lives are pure misery because we're philosophically infantile, spiritually morbid, and socially atomized. Whatever comes next will re-envision all of history to assume it is the pinnacle of all human evolution. So we don't really ever have to worry about civilization "falling" -- all it does is change the cover story.
Of course, to accept that we have to accept everything we're proud of from aviation to antibiotics is just so much seafoam, and that's not a normal or healthy way of viewing one's contemporary surroundings.
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unh_hockey
pain is temporary pride is forever
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?
I’ll leave this digressing with a final thought. Inventions seem to be nothing more than successful implementations of careful observations. As was the case with quantum theory, Newton’s corpuscular theory of light was debunked by wave particle duality thanks to Michelson Morley and other experiments that brought forth new questions based on observation. Reductionalists kept taking down a level until reasonable models of nuclear theory were understood, than they implemented it when making the bomb. How you slice it up is all semantics.
So let’s pose this question since its closer to the theme of this thread. What significant energy sources since petrol have humans come up with which will fuel our future? Nuclear is a big one, but that will not power most commerce. Biofuels? Not there yet. Wind/solar? Too small , not frequent enough. My hypothesis is that we do not, and will not be able to invent our way out of our petrol craze. We pride ourselves on such achievements, but its all thanks to oil and abundant energy. Let that sink in. its pretty profound. If energy goes away, so does our ridiculously high standard of life.
I’ll leave this digressing with a final thought. Inventions seem to be nothing more than successful implementations of careful observations. As was the case with quantum theory, Newton’s corpuscular theory of light was debunked by wave particle duality thanks to Michelson Morley and other experiments that brought forth new questions based on observation. Reductionalists kept taking down a level until reasonable models of nuclear theory were understood, than they implemented it when making the bomb. How you slice it up is all semantics.
So let’s pose this question since its closer to the theme of this thread. What significant energy sources since petrol have humans come up with which will fuel our future? Nuclear is a big one, but that will not power most commerce. Biofuels? Not there yet. Wind/solar? Too small , not frequent enough. My hypothesis is that we do not, and will not be able to invent our way out of our petrol craze. We pride ourselves on such achievements, but its all thanks to oil and abundant energy. Let that sink in. its pretty profound. If energy goes away, so does our ridiculously high standard of life.
walrus
Wind up workin' in a gas station
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?
Energy isn't going away but our standard of living might. Solar manufacturers in China are getting higher and higher efficiency at cheaper costs to manufacture. Solar has a chance but it won't be tomorrow. Same with Wind in the Gulf of Maine, the amount of energy out there is huge, trouble is how do you harness it? I can't wait to see the prototype out there in 2013 or 14. Hopefully they get the funding they need. Transportation is the killer, Fuel cells can be done but you have to have a huge energy source to make them work.
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?
Premium here has climbed over $4 - naturally both of our Volvos run on 93 octane.
Premium here has climbed over $4 - naturally both of our Volvos run on 93 octane.
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?
You pretty strongly implied that our failure to develop an alternative cheaper than oil (i.e. something that will bankrupt the current energy providers) was a result of policy choices rather than the laws of physics. I definitely disagree.
unofan
Well-known member
Patman
Rodent of Unusual Size
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?
As far as I know, we have as many scientists today as we've ever had... and yet in this time the only thing that's really taken off is communications technology.... even computational tech has lagged. Sure, some things have seen improvements... but we're already throwing the most resources we ever had at the problems in science.
People don't really want to believe in the existence of the limitations in our abilities... that if we properly order ourselves then we are capable of all. I think those who work at the bounds of science and tech know that things aren't nearly that simple and that the world is a lot more complicated than society compels from it.
While things can get better, we must realize it is an incremental process.... it is not an inevitable process... and not just due to society's errors. Science and tech is a very hard thing and we must accept that not all results are inevitable... we're not getting whole body transporters folks. Its not just a prioritization of resources... its that some things just are beyond our reach or that if they are reachable they will only come after a lot of bright people beat their heads trying to make gains off of diminishing returns.
Still, people believe if only we sin less then we'll invent a new tech... this is why we see such luddite tactics like making gas $10 and other things. While necessity is the mother of invention not all things can be invented... we're not getting a teleporter just because we want it.
edit: in the heart of every liberal (and others who day dream about the perfect societies) is a person who believes they can engineer the proper command society if given the right information. Arguments on gasoline and science are nothing more than extensions of that.
As far as I know, we have as many scientists today as we've ever had... and yet in this time the only thing that's really taken off is communications technology.... even computational tech has lagged. Sure, some things have seen improvements... but we're already throwing the most resources we ever had at the problems in science.
People don't really want to believe in the existence of the limitations in our abilities... that if we properly order ourselves then we are capable of all. I think those who work at the bounds of science and tech know that things aren't nearly that simple and that the world is a lot more complicated than society compels from it.
While things can get better, we must realize it is an incremental process.... it is not an inevitable process... and not just due to society's errors. Science and tech is a very hard thing and we must accept that not all results are inevitable... we're not getting whole body transporters folks. Its not just a prioritization of resources... its that some things just are beyond our reach or that if they are reachable they will only come after a lot of bright people beat their heads trying to make gains off of diminishing returns.
Still, people believe if only we sin less then we'll invent a new tech... this is why we see such luddite tactics like making gas $10 and other things. While necessity is the mother of invention not all things can be invented... we're not getting a teleporter just because we want it.
edit: in the heart of every liberal (and others who day dream about the perfect societies) is a person who believes they can engineer the proper command society if given the right information. Arguments on gasoline and science are nothing more than extensions of that.
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unh_hockey
pain is temporary pride is forever
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?
well stated. I have always likened our 'limitations' to trying to teach a dog calculus. It might want to learn commands from you in uncompromising willingness, but it still won't be able to carry out the math. We have limitations forged over years of adaptation and necessity.
I am not so sure we have reached our limit, but without abundant free energy, it'll be harder to progress. I would attribute our growth in technology and population in the past 100 years to the prevalence of petrol products. think about what it takes to build our bridges, fly our plans, move our freight... This all helps speed up the economy. Petrol also is responsible for plastics which deliver clean products - we live longer, and healthier. Can we live in a world without oil? sure. Its been done for thousands...millions of years. The issue is that what we are used to is based on a general upward trend in our consumption and expectations of petroleum products. A sudden vacuum would change a lot about how we live our lives.
This is why I think higher prices in a way is helpful. It makes the layperson aware , even in a very subtitle way. Most don't know the sheer numbers of BTUs consumed, especially in america. Maybe we take it for granted a little bit less. My tank now costs 50 dollars to fill. I'd imagine on a small income, that would make you think about changing things up. Things will have to get more painful before change is forced...and believe me, it will be involuntary.
well stated. I have always likened our 'limitations' to trying to teach a dog calculus. It might want to learn commands from you in uncompromising willingness, but it still won't be able to carry out the math. We have limitations forged over years of adaptation and necessity.
I am not so sure we have reached our limit, but without abundant free energy, it'll be harder to progress. I would attribute our growth in technology and population in the past 100 years to the prevalence of petrol products. think about what it takes to build our bridges, fly our plans, move our freight... This all helps speed up the economy. Petrol also is responsible for plastics which deliver clean products - we live longer, and healthier. Can we live in a world without oil? sure. Its been done for thousands...millions of years. The issue is that what we are used to is based on a general upward trend in our consumption and expectations of petroleum products. A sudden vacuum would change a lot about how we live our lives.
This is why I think higher prices in a way is helpful. It makes the layperson aware , even in a very subtitle way. Most don't know the sheer numbers of BTUs consumed, especially in america. Maybe we take it for granted a little bit less. My tank now costs 50 dollars to fill. I'd imagine on a small income, that would make you think about changing things up. Things will have to get more painful before change is forced...and believe me, it will be involuntary.
JF_Gophers
2147483647
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?
The thing is we don't really need to invent a new tech to replace oil. We have alternatives such as electricity already existing. We just as a society have to decide to use it instead and then find a way to implement and make it affordable.
Every day cars for the masses need only to go 80 mph and be able to drive 500 highway miles on a single charge and we have replaced oil. The rest is figuring out how to charge the cars quickly and making charging widely available like gas stations are.
The thing is we don't really need to invent a new tech to replace oil. We have alternatives such as electricity already existing. We just as a society have to decide to use it instead and then find a way to implement and make it affordable.
Every day cars for the masses need only to go 80 mph and be able to drive 500 highway miles on a single charge and we have replaced oil. The rest is figuring out how to charge the cars quickly and making charging widely available like gas stations are.
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Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?
My only comment here is not to let perfect be the enemy of good. A 500-mile battery is a way off. Maybe a long way off. But a 100-mile battery isn't. There are a lot of 2nd cars that are just commuter-mobiles. It's probably a big enough market to reach financially sustainable production levels. And it's probably a more effective spur to innovation to have an existing (if imperfect) product than to wait for the silver bullet innovation that gets you "all the way there." Progress *is* incremental.
My only comment here is not to let perfect be the enemy of good. A 500-mile battery is a way off. Maybe a long way off. But a 100-mile battery isn't. There are a lot of 2nd cars that are just commuter-mobiles. It's probably a big enough market to reach financially sustainable production levels. And it's probably a more effective spur to innovation to have an existing (if imperfect) product than to wait for the silver bullet innovation that gets you "all the way there." Progress *is* incremental.
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?
Electricity isn't really a replacement for oil. Electricity is a power delivery mechanism; oil is an energy source. The electric plant still needs an energy source - and most are still reliant on fossil fuel (coal and natural gas). The proper analogs to fossil fuel are solar, wind, biofuel, nuclear, etc, which can provide the energy that power plants need to generate the electricity.
JF_Gophers
2147483647
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?
So I think there are plenty of ways to generate it without them.
Plus would the amount of fuels used to create enough electricity to run vehicles be more or less than is used now? Any reduction in use is a step forward.
I understand that electricity needs to be generated. I can make electricity with a freakin balloon, no fossil fuels needed!
So I think there are plenty of ways to generate it without them.Plus would the amount of fuels used to create enough electricity to run vehicles be more or less than is used now? Any reduction in use is a step forward.
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?
Why not build a car with 5, 100-mile batteries?
Why not build a car with 5, 100-mile batteries?
unh_hockey
pain is temporary pride is forever
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?
What the anti oil pundits do not understand are the economics of scale. Sure, you can create a few coulombs of electric charge while you rub a ballon, but would it be enough to power a car? a truck? a fleet of trucks and airplanes? Our economy? The answer is no. Not even close. Electric cars and batteries will not suffice.
As the other engineer already stated, electricity is a energy delivery method - fossil fuels are energy. Think back to physics when you had to do simple wiring diagrams and you had voltages, current, and resistance. We are talking about the voltage ,and you are talking about the flow. The energy storage is typically a battery, but petrol can serve as this means too - and its much better at it. Magnitudes better. Finally we have the power, which is in electrical parlance is a product of the flow and an element impeding it. With a resistor, current helps creates heat. For electomechanical systems, it creates motion or whatever the engineer designs. If people understood energy from a systems standpoint, there might be better understanding, reporting, and public awareness on the subject
We just as a society have to decide to use it instead and then find a way to implement and make it affordable.
that’s the rub. It will never be less expensive than oil. Oil is too good. Its inexpensive, easy to store, easy to exploit. All other alternatives are far more expensive per unit of energy, harder to store ( batteries), and much more expensive. Go look up how much the battery pack on a tesla roadster costs and how much it weighs. Give you a hint, it's a double digit number of the curb weight of the vehicle.
I understand that electricity needs to be generated. I can make electricity with a freakin balloon, no fossil fuels needed!
Plus would the amount of fuels used to create enough electricity to run vehicles be more or less than is used now? Any reduction in use is a step forward.
What the anti oil pundits do not understand are the economics of scale. Sure, you can create a few coulombs of electric charge while you rub a ballon, but would it be enough to power a car? a truck? a fleet of trucks and airplanes? Our economy? The answer is no. Not even close. Electric cars and batteries will not suffice.
As the other engineer already stated, electricity is a energy delivery method - fossil fuels are energy. Think back to physics when you had to do simple wiring diagrams and you had voltages, current, and resistance. We are talking about the voltage ,and you are talking about the flow. The energy storage is typically a battery, but petrol can serve as this means too - and its much better at it. Magnitudes better. Finally we have the power, which is in electrical parlance is a product of the flow and an element impeding it. With a resistor, current helps creates heat. For electomechanical systems, it creates motion or whatever the engineer designs. If people understood energy from a systems standpoint, there might be better understanding, reporting, and public awareness on the subject
We just as a society have to decide to use it instead and then find a way to implement and make it affordable.
that’s the rub. It will never be less expensive than oil. Oil is too good. Its inexpensive, easy to store, easy to exploit. All other alternatives are far more expensive per unit of energy, harder to store ( batteries), and much more expensive. Go look up how much the battery pack on a tesla roadster costs and how much it weighs. Give you a hint, it's a double digit number of the curb weight of the vehicle.
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