Re: 2nd Term Part VII: You May Like Your Doctor But You Can't Keep Her
I eagerly await Red Cloud's rundown of Presidential wannabees, but that's probably a year or so away!
So, looking at things now, they'll be the Tea Party Guy, the Social Issues Guy, and the Establishment Country Club Guy. Tea Party Guy is Rand Paul or Ted Cruz, Social Issues Guy is a Huckleberry/Santorum type, and Establishment Country Club Guy is a Huntsman/Jeb Bush/Christie type.
Forget about Social Issues Guy getting the nomination because he usually has little money and his positions overlap with Tea Party Guy. However, he could muck things up a bit.
Tea Party guy is interesting. What happens if Rand Paul, Scott Walker, and Ted Cruz all run? By and large GOP contests are winner take all. What happens if Social Issues Guy wins in Iowa, then Establishment Guy wins in New Hampshire? Who wins South Carolina and Florida, since nobody from there or even near there is running? Does Ted Cruz drop out if he can't win any of the first 4 or 5 contests, even though he represents the GOP base and should clean up in the mid-South and South west?
My thoughts this far out are Rand Paul is a slight favorite for two reasons: 1) his "movement" has already taken over the state parties in several key places (Iowa, Nevada) & he'll arguably be the best funded candidate in the field unless Jeb Bush gets involved. 2) His form of libertarianism can be seen as a solution to some of the problems the party is facing, from involvement in Iraq to gay marriage. When your take is govt should do nothing, those issues go away.
His problems are that he's nuts and therefore prone to saying or doing something stupid (think Rick Perry ), and that there's no promise he'll have that wing of the party to himself. If the nomination drags on and drifts away from the red states, Establishment Guy might be able to win another war of attrition by cleaning up the Northeast and West Coast (think Mittens last time).
