2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

[Priceless]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

We aren't going anywhere but the Dems, you know that. There is nowhere else to go.

Not true, at least in some parts of the country. The Green Independent Party is growing in Maine. It's gotten to the point my state legislator only won her race by 11 votes (while the Green earned 8%) and our state senator lost by 5 points after the GIP candidate picked up 11%. Since I am a former Democratic chair and a friend of the GIP candidate, the Dems have asked me for advice on how to bridge the gap. There really isn't one. The GIP view themselves as a more pure form of the Democratic Party. Not so much in terms of policy, but in terms of corporate money. They don't take a dime. As such, in most states they will never be a factor. Here in Maine we have public-financing for elections so the GIP will be a place for those liberals to go in local races. Even though my state senator was very liberal, that wasn't enough for a sizable portion of the electorate.

There is also the very real fear that liberals stay home. Liberal voters aren't going to be that excited to vote for Hillary. If enough liberals stay home (and are caged out by voter ID laws) in the right states, then you suddenly see changes in the Electoral College...

 

[joecct]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

If you really want to see changes - apportion the EV like Maine (?) does. 2 EV for winning the state and the rest depend on who gets the most votes in each congressional district.

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

If you really want to see changes - apportion the EV like Maine (?) does. 2 EV for winning the state and the rest depend on who gets the most votes in each congressional district.

Maine and Nebraska do that. In 2008 Obama won the Electoral Vote for Omaha (?) while Republicans always hold out hope they can peel off CD2 in Maine (they never have).

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

If you really want to see changes - apportion the EV like Maine (?) does. 2 EV for winning the state and the rest depend on who gets the most votes in each congressional district.

Yeah, because gerrymandering isn't already a serious enough problem.

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

Yeah, because gerrymandering isn't already a serious enough problem.

Would be funny to see Austin go red...

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

There is also the very real fear that liberals stay home. Liberal voters aren't going to be that excited to vote for Hillary. If enough liberals stay home (and are caged out by voter ID laws) in the right states, then you suddenly see changes in the Electoral College...

We won't stay home because the GOP will have 18 months prancing around shouting derp so dangerous and disgusting that even hard core lefties like me will see Hillary as the only thing between us and a Dictatorship of the Stupid.

And we won't split off -- 3rd parties typically poll about 2% net.

 

[Priceless]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

We won't stay home because the GOP will have 18 months prancing around shouting derp so dangerous and disgusting that even hard core lefties like me will see Hillary as the only thing between us and a Dictatorship of the Stupid

You mean like the last 18 months?

 

[Rover]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

We aren't going anywhere but the Dems, you know that. There is nowhere else to go. Yes, I would like to nominate somebody from the Democratic wing of the Democratic party, but on November 8, 2016 I'll be yanking my crank for Hillary.

Just don't ask me to be happy about it.

She can redeem herself with a fire-breathing liberal VP. joecct's TR notion isn't that far from the truth: it was the only way "that dangerous lunatic" who wanted to bust the trusts was ever going to become President.

Political movements get exhausted after awhile. Its easier to criticize than do anything. Come 2016, Dems need a theme to run on or enough whiny liberals could stay home. Income inequality is a good theme, in that people tend to feel the system is rigged to favor "insiders". The question then becomes who can articulate policies to capture that sentiment? Hillary can borrow some Warren themes, and have her as a close confident, while checking off some other boxes on her resume that Warren wouldn't be able to do for a national campaign (foreign policy experience, a link to the most successful Presidency of the last 50 years, etc). I suspect the GOP will nominate a loon (Cruz, Paul) instead of a central casting guy (Bush) so that will certainly help bringing crunchy granola libs home. Warren has an ability Hillary does not, which is to make concise arguments about complex issues. Hillary would be wise to tap into that and as long as she doesn't rehire the dumfuks who ran her last campaigh I guessing she will.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

Warren has an ability Hillary does not, which is to make concise arguments about complex issues. Hillary would be wise to tap into that and as long as she doesn't rehire the dumfuks who ran her last campaigh I guessing she will.

Hillary is going to run the Dem equivalent of a John McCain campaign: very careful, no passion, no new ideas, dour, OLD. On foreign policy she will be grim and hawkish. On domestic policy she'll warm over Bill's DLC leftovers (she'll try to add a dash of Warren's populism until Citibank and Goldman Sachs show her the film of the Kennedy assassination from an angle nobody's ever seen before).

If the GOP had a charismatic candidate, they would destroy her -- it could even be a charismatic loon. But the GOP's bench is utter garbage -- they will need somebody we haven't seen yet to come out of nowhere and sweep to the nomination. But Republicans don't work like that -- the guy with the nice hair whose turn is next gets the money and therefore the party blessing and therefore the nomination.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

Hillary is going to run the Dem equivalent of a John McCain campaign: very careful, no passion, no new ideas, dour, OLD. On foreign policy she will be grim and hawkish. On domestic policy she'll warm over Bill's DLC leftovers (she'll try to add a dash of Warren's populism until Citibank and Goldman Sachs show her the film of the Kennedy assassination from an angle nobody's ever seen before).

If the GOP had a charismatic candidate, they would destroy her -- it could even be a charismatic loon. But the GOP's bench is utter garbage -- they will need somebody we haven't seen yet to come out of nowhere and sweep to the nomination. But Republicans don't work like that -- the guy with the nice hair whose turn is next gets the money and therefore the party blessing and therefore the nomination.

Kep your doom and gloomism is missing something important. John McCain was a guy like Dole who won the nomination a decade or so too late but they ran as Cold Warrier-Tax Cuts for the Rich guys who happened to be war heroes which is rare for Republicans (Cheney, Boner, McConnell, Romney, Bush II all skipped Vietnam conveniently). Nothing historic or different there.

Hillary represents to date the best, and perhaps only for a long time, chance for a woman President, and don't underestimate that appeal to older women who never thought they'd see the day. Older married women are part of the backbone of GOP support. Having a chance to elect on of their own, even if they don't agree with every one of her positions, is going to be huge. Otherwise it would be like saying Catholics didn't come out for Kennedy or blacks for Obama. A Hillary Presidency is historic. A Rand Paul-Chris-Christie-Jeb Bush one? Meh...not so much although the Christie-Taft who's fatter comparisons might be interesting...

Now Cruz could try the Hispanic angle although I really don't see him running on that and besides, Hispanics make up about 12% of the electorate while women are over 50%.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

It's not doom and gloom. It's acceptance of reality: Hillary, who will be the Dem nominee and thus who I will have to vote for, is personally an awful candidate (no charm, no spark) and ideologically a throwback to the "not in the face!" chickensh*t Dems of the 80s (hence her weak-kneed vote on Iraq).

How about this for a historic presidency? How about the first woman president not being a former president's wife, as if we were some banana republic? Or worse, it's some lame 50s paternalism. Yes, sweetie, it must have been humiliating when Bill cheated on you in the White House. Here's a crown for compensation (pat on head).

Hillary's primary qualification to be president is her Rolodex of donors. She's our Elizabeth Dole. Her "transformative" quality is solely her gender, not anything about her as a thinker or a leader. That is the antithesis of feminism.

 

[joecct]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

That's a ringing endorsement if I ever saw one. Is there a centrist governor that could give her a run?

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

That's a ringing endorsement if I ever saw one. Is there a centrist governor that could give her a run?

"Hillary 2016: I know, I know, but Christ look at the other guy!"

O'Malley? He was my governor and I can't list a single thing he did, good or bad. People talk about Patrick, too, but I can't see it.

Mark Warner is always floating around from the blue dogs; speaking of, what's Evan Bayh doing these days? But if Hillary is the wrong direction those guys are even worse.

Here's a fun odds board. I think the old warhorse is unstoppable. Maybe her heart will grow three sizes or something.

There had been some noise about the Udall brothers giving it a go. They're both Senators. The pretty one (Mark, CO) just lost so he's probably toast. The smart one (Tom, NM) is a complete unknown outside the southwest. I had hopes for him.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

It's not doom and gloom. It's acceptance of reality: Hillary, who will be the Dem nominee and thus who I will have to vote for, is personally an awful candidate (no charm, no spark) and ideologically a throwback to the "not in the face!" chickensh*t Dems of the 80s (hence her weak-kneed vote on Iraq).

How about this for a historic presidency? How about the first woman president not being a former president's wife, as if we were some banana republic? Or worse, it's some lame 50s paternalism. Yes, sweetie, it must have been humiliating when Bill cheated on you in the White House. Here's a crown for compensation (pat on head).

Hillary's primary qualification to be president is her Rolodex of donors. She's our Elizabeth Dole. Her "transformative" quality is solely her gender, not anything about her as a thinker or a leader. That is the antithesis of feminism.

Hillary's qualification is that her husband was the best President in most people's memory, and therefore lets hope she picked up a few ideas on how to run the country from being a first hand observer to him running the govt. Its the same reason why Jeb Bush = W's 3rd term. Really, you can't top experience like that, if there's one thing people crave now its good government. The Liddy Dole comparison is stupid. Bob Dole was never President, and his wife never ran anything as complicated as the State Department (no, the Red Cross doesn't count). As far as the antithesis of feminism goes, do you really picture ANYBODY bossing Hillary around once she reaches the pinnacle of power?


So, stop whining. Join up with The Hill and lets kick some knuckledragger tail next election. Some elections are about vision, others are about competence. I don't need soaring rhetoric out of the old girl. I need the peace and prosperity of the late 90's, instead of a bunch of people trying to drag us back to the 50's or 1982. To paraphrase Pierre Trudeau, don't compare her to The Almightly. Compare her to the opposition. Go around telling people you're holding your nose next election and as joey pointed out its hardly a ringing endorsement. That attitude gave us George W Bush....

 

[mookie1995]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

At least benazir Bhutto & Gloria macapagal-arroyo were hot

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

Hillary's qualification is that her husband was the best President in most people's memory, and therefore lets hope she picked up a few ideas on how to run the country from being a first hand observer to him running the govt. Its the same reason why Jeb Bush = W's 3rd term. Really, you can't top experience like that, if there's one thing people crave now its good government. The Liddy Dole comparison is stupid. Bob Dole was never President, and his wife never ran anything as complicated as the State Department (no, the Red Cross doesn't count). As far as the antithesis of feminism goes, do you really picture ANYBODY bossing Hillary around once she reaches the pinnacle of power?


So, stop whining. Join up with The Hill and lets kick some knuckledragger tail next election. Some elections are about vision, others are about competence. I don't need soaring rhetoric out of the old girl. I need the peace and prosperity of the late 90's, instead of a bunch of people trying to drag us back to the 50's or 1982. To paraphrase Pierre Trudeau, don't compare her to The Almightly. Compare her to the opposition. Go around telling people you're holding your nose next election and as joey pointed out its hardly a ringing endorsement. That attitude gave us George W Bush....

First of all, we should be honest. One reason the nation got stuck with Dubya was an entire raft of moderate Republicans who never talked about the fact that the man was a high functioning imbecile who would have been in over his head running a car dealership let alone the world's most complex government.

Secondly, Dubya became president because Gore was a terrible, terrible candidate, and Hillary is nearly as wooden and tone deaf, so the lesson of 2000 is don't nominate the Cryptkeeper.

Thirdly, it's not time to put lipstick on that pig yet. It seems inevitable that she'll have bought out the system before the first primary, just like the chimperor back in 2000 locked down the GOP nomination by spreading around money like Rove's manure. But something could happen and we could have a liberal rather than a wind sock. The worst that happens for us is she is the nominee and if so, fine, then we deal with it.

Fourthly, you don't have to worry about liberals defecting because you know the GOP nominee is going to be their usual cross between Monty Burns and Gomer Pyle, and the stream of vile idiocy issuing from its maw will motivate/scare every lefty to go to the battlements to defeat them.

Finally, are you genuinely afraid to speak your mind to the dozen people who read political threads on USCHO for fear of tarnishing Brunhilde's armor? Do you live with that sort of fear 24/7? That must be nerve-wracking.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

she will be worth it just to have bubba back in a spotlight.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

First of all, we should be honest. One reason the nation got stuck with Dubya was an entire raft of moderate Republicans who never talked about the fact that the man was a high functioning imbecile who would have been in over his head running a car dealership let alone the world's most complex government.

Secondly, Dubya became president because Gore was a terrible, terrible candidate, and Hillary is nearly as wooden and tone deaf, so the lesson of 2000 is don't nominate the Cryptkeeper.

Thirdly, it's not time to put lipstick on that pig yet. It seems inevitable that she'll have bought out the system before the first primary, just like the chimperor back in 2000 locked down the GOP nomination by spreading around money like Rove's manure. But something could happen and we could have a liberal rather than a wind sock. The worst that happens for us is she is the nominee and if so, fine, then we deal with it.

Fourthly, you don't have to worry about liberals defecting because you know the GOP nominee is going to be their usual cross between Monty Burns and Gomer Pyle, and the stream of vile idiocy issuing from its maw will motivate/scare every lefty to go to the battlements to defeat them.

Finally, are you genuinely afraid to speak your mind to the dozen people who read political threads on USCHO for fear of tarnishing Brunhilde's armor? Do you live with that sort of fear 24/7? That must be nerve-wracking.

Yes Kep, I'm always afraid to speak my mind out here.

But, you should be thanking me from saving you from "Naderism". Some people would rather lose because they think it proves a point. I'm getting the sense you'd be as happy with a Hillary loss in the general election as a win, which is a foolhardy position to take. Yes, you could go around for 4 years saying "I told you so" all the while ignoring that indifference would have caused the country to elect someone who makes W look like a lefty. Unfortunately you need to put your desire to go around saying that on the back burner for the good of the country. If an undecided voter is listening to one side say "TED CRUZ IS THE SECOND COMING!!! I HEAR GOD IS ENDORSING HIM AT THE CONVENTION!!!!" and you're saying "I'm going to hold my nose and vote for Hillary" under your breath, who do you think has a more compelling argument? As we've found out with Obama's Presidency, sometimes being right on policy isn't enough (which Hillary is despite your odd objections). Sometimes how its all packaged matters too, and if half the Dem base has your attitude, start getting used to President Cruz or President Paul (which you may not mind).

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

she will be worth it just to have bubba back in a spotlight.

This is actually the best answer I've heard. Bill is many things -- boring is not one of them.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: 2nd Term Part IX - How Lame is my Duck

This is actually the best answer I've heard. Bill is many things -- boring is not one of them.

1990's Bill wasn't boring. I don't think he'd be as exciting these days. He's not out gobbling down McD's, and his taste in women have likely changed, too, less likely to be the chubby chaser that he once was. And he probably knows the definition of the word "is" by now.