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2024 Pairwise and Tournament Qualification Thread

It looks like when all is said and done tomorrow

Providence:
Boston College vs #16 (St Lawrence/Michigan Tech)
Wisconsin vs Quinnipiac (or a third NCHC team)

Sioux Falls:
Denver vs 13/14
Minnesota vs Omaha

Springfield:
Boston University/Michigan State vs 15/UMass
Maine vs NCHC team (Western Michigan)

Maryland Heights:
Michigan State/Boston University vs 13/14
North Dakota vs Michigan
 
ticapnews said:
Denver wins. UMass lives another day.
Click to expand...

Current Prob Matrix....59-41 for UMass. Research necessary to figure out the possibilities.

OK.
If St Lawrence wins, UMass qualifies only if AIC, BC and Den all win.
If St Lawrence loses, CC goes if Omaha wins, and UMass goes if Denver wins, except two cases, which are:
BC, AIC, Omaha and Michigan winning yields UMass
BU, Denver, Michigan and RIT yields CC
 
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Numbers said:
Current Prob Matrix....59-41 for UMass. Research necessary to figure out the possibilities.
Click to expand...

With RPI so close I am wondering if the AIC/RIT game will factor into it at all.

It seems more people have been influenced by Wodon's inane babbling and think UMass will be converted into a 3 seed at the expense of another team so BU can stay in Springfield. I thought people were going to go on Twitter and let him know he's wrong.
 
Numbers said:
Current Prob Matrix....59-41 for UMass. Research necessary to figure out the possibilities.

OK.
If St Lawrence wins, UMass qualifies only if AIC, BC and Den all win.
If St Lawrence loses, CC goes if Omaha wins, and UMass goes if Denver wins, except two cases, which are:
BC, AIC, Omaha and Michigan winning yields UMass
BU, Denver, Michigan and RIT yields CC
Click to expand...

Should one of your scenarios in the last two lines be Michigan State? Because you listed Michigan winning as part of both exceptions. So if it isn’t wrong the what happens if Michigan State wins?
 
Sparkee said:
Should one of your scenarios in the last two lines be Michigan State? Because you listed Michigan winning as part of both exceptions. So if it isn’t wrong the what happens if Michigan State wins?
Click to expand...

CC in:
User-Specified Results
  • ECAC Championship: St. Lawrence def. Cornell
  • Hockey East Championship: Boston College def. Boston University
  • Atlantic Hockey Championship: RIT def. American Int'l
  • Big Ten Championship: Michigan def. Michigan State
  • NCHC Championship: Denver def. Omaha
UMA in:
User-Specified Results
  • ECAC Championship: St. Lawrence def. Cornell
  • Hockey East Championship: Boston College def. Boston University
  • Atlantic Hockey Championship: RIT def. American Int'l
  • Big Ten Championship: Michigan State def. Michigan
  • NCHC Championship: Denver def. Omaha
 
Sparkee said:
Should one of your scenarios in the last two lines be Michigan State? Because you listed Michigan winning as part of both exceptions. So if it isn’t wrong the what happens if Michigan State wins?
Click to expand...

If both Cornell and Michigan State win, then the last spot is determined by CC being in if Omaha wins, and UMass being in if Denver wins.
 
I had too much time on my hands tonight, so I ran all 32 scenarios on CHN's Pairwise Predictor.

Listed below are each one, with winners placed in order of the respective start times, followed by the resulting .5??? RPI numbers for the last possible at-large teams sweating out the weekend (CC and UMass). Good lord, this is insanely close!! Cornell victory scenarios also list which results push Cornell up to the 12 seed (3 band).


01. Cornell, RIT, BC, Sparty, Omaha............CC 498 > UMASS 496
02. Cornell, RIT, BC, Sparty, Denver............UMASS 497 > CC 493 - CORNELL 12th
03. Cornell, RIT, BC, Michigan, Omaha.........CC 500 > UMASS 499
04. Cornell, RIT, BC, Michigan, Denver.........UMASS 500 > CC 497
05. Cornell, RIT, BU, Sparty, Omaha............CC 498 > UMASS 494
06. Cornell, RIT, BU, Sparty, Denver.............UMASS 495 > CC 494 - CORNELL 12th
07. Cornell, RIT, BU, Michigan, Omaha.........CC 500 > UMASS 497
08. Cornell, RIT, BU, Michigan, Denver..........UMASS 498 > CC 497

09. Cornell, AIC, BC, Sparty, Omaha............CC 499 > UMASS 497
10. Cornell, AIC, BC, Sparty, Denver.............UMASS 498 > CC 495 - CORNELL 12th
11. Cornell, AIC, BC, Michigan, Omaha.........UMASS 501 = CC 501 - (tied RPI!!! Says UMass "wins")
12. Cornell, AIC, BC, Michigan, Denver..........UMASS 502 > CC 497
13. Cornell, AIC, BU, Sparty, Omaha.............CC 499 > UMASS 496 - CORNELL 13th/12th? (tied 522 w/ WMU, but says WMU "wins")
14. Cornell, AIC, BU, Sparty, Denver.............UMASS 497 > CC 495 - CORNELL 12th
15. Cornell, AIC, BU, Michigan, Omaha..........CC 501 > UMASS 500
16. Cornell, AIC, BU, Michigan, Denver..........UMASS 500 > CC 498

17. SLU, RIT, BC, Sparty, Omaha..................CC 498 > UMASS 493
18. SLU, RIT, BC, Sparty, Denver..................UMASS 494 = CC 494 - (tied RPI!!! Says UMass "wins")
19. SLU, RIT, BC, Michigan, Omaha...............CC 500 > UMASS 496
20. SLU, RIT, BC, Michigan, Denver...............CC 497 = UMASS 497 - (tied RPI!!! Says CC "wins")
21. SLU, RIT, BU, Sparty, Omaha..................CC 498 > UMASS 491
22. SLU, RIT, BU, Sparty, Denver..................CC 494 > UMASS 492
23. SLU, RIT, BU, Michigan, Omaha..............CC 500 > UMASS 494
24. SLU, RIT, BU, Michigan, Denver...............CC 497 > UMASS 495

25. SLU, AIC, BC, Sparty, Omaha.................CC 499 > UMASS 494
26. SLU, AIC, BC, Sparty, Denver..................UMASS 495 = CC 495 - (tied RPI!!! Says UMass "wins")
27. SLU, AIC, BC, Michigan, Omaha..............CC 501 > UMASS 498
28. SLU, AIC, BC, Michigan, Denver...............UMASS 499 > CC 498
29. SLU, AIC, BU, Sparty, Omaha..................CC 500 > UMASS 493
30. SLU, AIC, BU, Sparty, Denver..................CC 495 > UMASS 494
31. SLU, AIC, BU, Michigan, Omaha...............CC 501 > UMASS 497
32. SLU, AIC, BU, Michigan, Denver...............CC 498 > UMASS 497


The official tally is in favor of CC, 19-9-4. At a glance, a St. Lawrence victory overwhelmingly favors CC. Meanwhile, UMASS particularly needs both Cornell and Denver to win (that combo equals an 8-0 UMass slant over CC. Actually all 9 decisive UMass wins involve a Denver victory.)

There are a few scenarios where the two teams have an identical RPI, and I don't know where the committee goes from there. How do we decide tiebreakers if RPI is all the comparison criteria they have? In the three scenarios (11, 18 and 26) where UMass "wins", UMass has 2 more total comparisons to CC's (thanks to CC losing comparisons to ASU and Auggie).

However, they are up 2 comparisons total because they were given an arbitrary "win" over CC itself. Points don't get awarded for Common Opp. % if they are identical, so would they drop that UMass/CC comparison due to the tie, and therefore UMass wins by virtue of having 1 more total comparison (instead of 2)?

Reverse UMass's arbitrary win to CC in any of these three scenarios and they're deadlocked at total comparisons again (this is the case in scenario 20, which lists CC as the "winner", with both teams also tied in total comparisons)

Have at it, folks!
 
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Bronco Hockey Fan said:
I had too much time on my hands tonight, so I ran all 32 scenarios on CHN's Pairwise Predictor.

Listed below are each one, with winners placed in order of the respective start times, followed by the resulting .5??? RPI numbers for the last possible at-large teams sweating out the weekend (CC and UMass). Good lord, this is insanely close!! Cornell victory scenarios also list which results push Cornell up to the 12 seed (3 band).


01. Cornell, RIT, BC, Sparty, Omaha............CC 498 > UMASS 496
02. Cornell, RIT, BC, Sparty, Denver............UMASS 497 > CC 493 - CORNELL 12th
03. Cornell, RIT, BC, Michigan, Omaha.........CC 500 > UMASS 499
04. Cornell, RIT, BC, Michigan, Denver.........UMASS 500 > CC 497
05. Cornell, RIT, BU, Sparty, Omaha............CC 498 > UMASS 494
06. Cornell, RIT, BU, Sparty, Denver.............UMASS 495 > CC 494 - CORNELL 12th
07. Cornell, RIT, BU, Michigan, Omaha.........CC 500 > UMASS 497
08. Cornell, RIT, BU, Michigan, Denver..........UMASS 498 > CC 497

09. Cornell, AIC, BC, Sparty, Omaha............CC 499 > UMASS 497
10. Cornell, AIC, BC, Sparty, Denver.............UMASS 498 > CC 495 - CORNELL 12th
11. Cornell, AIC, BC, Michigan, Omaha.........UMASS 501 = CC 501 - (tied RPI!!! Says UMass "wins")
12. Cornell, AIC, BC, Michigan, Denver..........UMASS 502 > CC 497
13. Cornell, AIC, BU, Sparty, Omaha.............CC 499 > UMASS 496 - CORNELL 13th/12th? (tied 522 w/ WMU, but says WMU "wins")
14. Cornell, AIC, BU, Sparty, Denver.............UMASS 497 > CC 495 - CORNELL 12th
15. Cornell, AIC, BU, Michigan, Omaha..........CC 501 > UMASS 500
16. Cornell, AIC, BU, Michigan, Denver..........UMASS 500 > CC 498

17. SLU, RIT, BC, Sparty, Omaha..................CC 498 > UMASS 493
18. SLU, RIT, BC, Sparty, Denver..................UMASS 494 = CC 494 - (tied RPI!!! Says UMass "wins")
19. SLU, RIT, BC, Michigan, Omaha...............CC 500 > UMASS 496
20. SLU, RIT, BC, Michigan, Denver...............CC 497 = UMASS 497 - (tied RPI!!! Says CC "wins")
21. SLU, RIT, BU, Sparty, Omaha..................CC 498 > UMASS 491
22. SLU, RIT, BU, Sparty, Denver..................CC 494 > UMASS 492
23. SLU, RIT, BU, Michigan, Omaha..............CC 500 > UMASS 494
24. SLU, RIT, BU, Michigan, Denver...............CC 497 > UMASS 495

25. SLU, AIC, BC, Sparty, Omaha.................CC 499 > UMASS 494
26. SLU, AIC, BC, Sparty, Denver..................UMASS 495 = CC 495 - (tied RPI!!! Says UMass "wins")
27. SLU, AIC, BC, Michigan, Omaha..............CC 501 > UMASS 498
28. SLU, AIC, BC, Michigan, Denver...............UMASS 499 > CC 498
29. SLU, AIC, BU, Sparty, Omaha..................CC 500 > UMASS 493
30. SLU, AIC, BU, Sparty, Denver..................CC 495 > UMASS 494
31. SLU, AIC, BU, Michigan, Omaha...............CC 501 > UMASS 497
32. SLU, AIC, BU, Michigan, Denver...............CC 498 > UMASS 497


The official tally is in favor of CC, 19-9-4. At a glance, a St. Lawrence victory overwhelmingly favors CC. Meanwhile, UMASS particularly needs both Cornell and Denver to win (that combo equals an 8-0 UMass slant over CC. Actually all 9 decisive UMass wins involve a Denver victory.)

There are a few scenarios where the two teams have an identical RPI, and I don't know where the committee goes from there. How do we decide tiebreakers if RPI is all the comparison criteria they have? In the three scenarios (11, 18 and 26) where UMass "wins", UMass has 2 more total comparisons to CC's (thanks to CC losing comparisons to ASU and Auggie).

However, they are up 2 comparisons total because they were given an arbitrary "win" over CC itself. Points don't get awarded for Common Opp. % if they are identical, so would they drop that UMass/CC comparison due to the tie, and therefore UMass wins by virtue of having 1 more total comparison (instead of 2)?

Reverse UMass's arbitrary win to CC in any of these three scenarios and they're deadlocked at total comparisons again (this is the case in scenario 20, which lists CC as the "winner", with both teams also tied in total comparisons)

Have at it, folks!
Click to expand...

Thanks for the work on this analysis. This should make for an exciting night. Not sure what they would go to in that deadlocked scenario.
 
This....
13. Cornell, AIC, BU, Sparty, Omaha.............CC 499 > UMASS 496 - CORNELL 13th/12th? (tied 522 w/ WMU, but says WMU "wins")

From the above post, is the craziest scenario.....IF and I mean IF, the committee gives Cornell the 12 spot. That would leave WMU and CC at 13/14, so Denver would get the 15th seed in Omaha. And, BU would stay near home (Springfield) and play the 14th overall seed, which would be CC in this case.

Even then, what makes sense for the committee would be Maine/Cornell in Springfield with BU/CC. And Maryland Heights would be MSU/WMU and UND/Michigan. Actually, this would be the dream bracket for the committee. The only problem is that WMU is actually 12th over Cornell in the 5th decimal place of the PWR.
 
There are no ties in RPI. It's just that every displayed calculation stops at 4 decimal places. If you extend it to 5 (or 6 or 7...) decimal places eventually someone will win.

It's our own mini Y2K bug. :-)
 
ticapnews said:
There are no ties in RPI. It's just that every displayed calculation stops at 4 decimal places. If you extend it to 5 (or 6 or 7...) decimal places eventually someone will win.

It's our own mini Y2K bug. :-)
Click to expand...

As far as I know, this is correct. But it is a flaw in the system, when something as important as who qualifies for the NCAA tourney is decided by such a fluky margin. A 5th decimal place calculation could be literally the difference between some game across the country, involving 2 random teams, being a 4-3 Reg win instead of a 4-3 OT win. That's how tight that is. And, it is the reason NOT to be too concerned about the difference between overall #6 and #8 for example.
 
Just to add a little more chaos to the brackets, remember that if AIC wins the autobid it can't be placed in the Springfield regional because it's the Yellow Jackets' home arena.
 
And....here we go. St Lawrence and Cornell.


ETA: Half way through the first, 1-0 Cornell

14:00 left in the 2nd. Cornell 2-0

End of 2. St Lawrence out shooting Cornell 23-21, but score is still 2-0

St Lawrence scores 5 minutes into the 3rd
 
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Cornell wins. That narrows things down.

Bronco Hockey Fan said:
Cornell, RIT, BC, Sparty, Denver............UMASS 497 > CC 493

Cornell, RIT, BC, Michigan, Denver.........UMASS 500 > CC 497

Cornell, RIT, BU, Sparty, Denver.............UMASS 495 > CC 494

Cornell, RIT, BU, Michigan, Denver..........UMASS 498 > CC 497

Cornell, AIC, BC, Sparty, Denver.............UMASS 498 > CC 495

Cornell, AIC, BC, Michigan, Omaha.........UMASS 501 = CC 501

Cornell, AIC, BC, Michigan, Denver..........UMASS 502 > CC 497

Cornell, AIC, BU, Sparty, Denver.............UMASS 497 > CC 495

Cornell, AIC, BU, Michigan, Denver..........UMASS 500 > CC 498


Cornell, RIT, BC, Sparty, Omaha............CC 498 > UMASS 496

Cornell, RIT, BC, Michigan, Omaha.........CC 500 > UMASS 499

Cornell, RIT, BU, Sparty, Omaha............CC 498 > UMASS 494

Cornell, RIT, BU, Michigan, Omaha.........CC 500 > UMASS 497

Cornell, AIC, BC, Sparty, Omaha............CC 499 > UMASS 497

Cornell, AIC, BU, Sparty, Omaha.............CC 499 > UMASS 496

​​​​​​Cornell, AIC, BU, Michigan, Omaha..........CC 501 > UMASS 500
Click to expand...
 
ticapnews said:
Cornell wins. That narrows things down.
Click to expand...

As was said last night, it goes by the Omaha v Denver game. Except for one lone situation. I'm from the west, and CC hasn't had a bid for many years, so I say "Go Omaha".

Quick bracket:
If UMass:
Prov: BC v MTU, Wisc v Quinn. Spring: MSU v UMass, Maine v WMU. Sioux Falls: Denver v Cornell, Minn v Omaha. Maryland Heights: BU v RIT/AIC, No Dak v Michigan

If CC:
Prov: BC v MTU/AIC, Wisc v Quinn. Spring: BU v RIT/MTU, Maine v WMU. Sioux Falls: Denver v Cornell, Minn v Omaha. Maryland Heights: MSU v CC, No Dak v Michigan
 
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