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2024 Elections: One Last Chance for Democracy

Abortion Rights at 57% in FL, needing 60. We need a Dobbs Push. I don't know what's wrong with Floridians. I mean, I do, but still...
 
Just a reminder, negatives are good. You might see the trend show bad but performance as negative. That's fine if it's negative enough.
[TABLE="width: 759"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl84, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]As of:[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #d9d9d9, colspan: 13"]President[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl92, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]Nov 5 7:29 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl89, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]AZ[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]GA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]IA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]MI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]MN[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]NC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]NM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]NV[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]OH[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]PA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]TX[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]VA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl91, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]WI[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]Over/Underperform[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #f8e983"]-2.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #f8e983"]-2.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #e9e482"]-7.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #f6e883"]-2.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #e0e282"]-9.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ffdf82"]4.9%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #f6e883"]-2.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]Trend[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: #c6e0b4"]Good[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: #c6e0b4"]Good[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Bad[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Bad[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Bad[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Bad[/TD]
[TD="class: xl94, bgcolor: #c6e0b4"]Good[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95"]-[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl86, bgcolor: white"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #d9d9d9, colspan: 10"]Senate[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: #d9d9d9, colspan: 3"]Governor[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: white"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]AZ[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]MI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]MN[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]MT[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]NE[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]NV[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]OH[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]PA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]TX[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]WI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]IN[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]NC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]NH[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]Over/Underperform[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ffe483"]2.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #e8e482"]-7.1%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #e4e382"]-8.5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #f4e783"]-3.4%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, bgcolor: #fcb079"]22.9%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #c7da80"]-17.9%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #ffea84"]0.6%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]Trend[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Bad[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Bad[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Bad[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: #c6e0b4"]Good[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: #c6e0b4"]Good[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Bad[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]Bad[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Just a reminder, negatives are good. You might see the trend show bad but performance as negative. That's fine if it's negative enough.
Click to expand...

Can you combine the two numbers and show trend against lean? If you did that a simple positive number would show overperformance and a negative underperformance.
 
RaceBoarder said:
Early numbers show Harris underperforming in Loudon County and areas that are DC suburbs.
Click to expand...

I'm more interested in Fairfax Cty, which has exploded in population. Loudon is educated but it's also Tom Clancy horse country. They have a lot of rich as-sholes who will vote for fascism if it cuts the top marginal rate.

If Harris overperforms Biden in Fairfax she wins VA.
 
Kepler said:
I'm more interested in Fairfax Cty, which has exploded in population. Loudon is educated but it's also Tom Clancy horse country. They have a lot of rich as-sholes who will vote for fascism if it cuts the top marginal rate.

If Harris overperforms Biden in Fairfax she wins VA.
Click to expand...

Hrm. Didn't realize that area was such a unique area in that respect.
 
RaceBoarder said:
Hrm. Didn't realize that area was such a unique area in that respect.
Click to expand...

Well, it's all tendencies. e.g., Fairfax also has a ton of rich as-holes, and Loudon rather famously has an increasing Latino population. And I'm certainly not wild about underperforming in Loudon. But I want to see Fairfax before I wet the bed.
 
Also important to check actuals and all but ignore exit polls. If there is a "Secret" vote, women are certainly not going to admit it with their Republican domestic abuser standing next to them.
 
Kepler said:
Also important to check actuals and all but ignore exit polls. If there is a "Secret" vote, women are certainly not going to admit it with their Republican domestic abuser standing next to them.
Click to expand...
MSNBC was talking about that the exit polls were way off in 2020.
 
Oh, and ted cruz is hurting right now. [TABLE="width: 759"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl84, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]As of:[/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #d9d9d9, colspan: 13"]President[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl92, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]Nov 5 7:59 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl89, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]AZ[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]GA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]IA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]MI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]MN[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]NC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]NM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]NV[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]OH[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]PA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]TX[/TD]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]VA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl91, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]WI[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]Over/Underperform[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #f3e783"]-3.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #f9e983"]-1.8%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #eee683"]-5.3%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #fdea83"]-0.5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #d8df81"]-12.5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #fec97e"]13.4%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #fae983"]-1.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]Trend[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: #c6e0b4"]Good[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Bad[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Bad[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Bad[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Bad[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Bad[/TD]
[TD="class: xl94"]Bad[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95"]-[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl86, bgcolor: white"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl79, bgcolor: #d9d9d9, colspan: 10"]Senate[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: #d9d9d9, colspan: 3"]Governor[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl88, bgcolor: white"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]AZ[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]MI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]MN[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]MT[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]NE[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]NV[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]OH[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]PA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]TX[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]WI[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]IN[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]NC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]NH[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]Over/Underperform[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ffe884"]1.2%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ede582"]-5.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #d4de81"]-13.6%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #ffe082"]4.5%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #ffeb84"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, bgcolor: #fec97e"]13.3%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85, bgcolor: #c4da80"]-18.7%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, bgcolor: #ffe984"]1.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #d9d9d9"]Trend[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Bad[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Bad[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Bad[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Bad[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: #c6e0b4"]Good[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72, bgcolor: #c6e0b4"]Good[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]Bad[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
The one thing I will say I have learned so far is there is not some 10-point Dobbs swing. If women save us, they aren't being flamboyant about it.

MI, WI, AZ (really?), IA, NE-2 just closed.

TX, ND, SD, WY Dump, of course.
 
It just took me an hour and a half to vote for Harris because one of the machines shut down and it took forever to find someone to fix it. It sounds like in my town there was a huge turnout.
 
MSNBC calls the FL abortion ballot measure dead. That's just so sad. I am so sorry for Democratic southern women. Just move to the Free World, ladies. Please improve the Acela Corridor demographic.
 
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