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2023 Pairwise Predictor

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Omg that would have been fun, eh?

I have occasionally tweaked how far my iterations go to balance calc time vs. precision. It's an imperfect science for sure.
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My scheme for getting Wisconsin home ice has been a win over Minn in the WCHA semi, and Northeastern losing to Vermont in the HE final. With everything else as in the 'auto-load' that was enough to get UW there. It was also a good deal of what was going to get us the five-digit tie between Minn and Colgate (with the St Lawrence almost win on Sunday).

Well, right now, we're *almost* there again: auto-load, then instead of Vermont beating NE, make it Providence beating NE, along with Wisconsin over Minnesota. It results in Minnesota beating Colgate by two at the fifth digit, and that .00002 keeps Minnesota with home ice, and Wisconsin without.
 
ARM said:
Think of the fun they could have ... punching Ned Ryerson in the face, being driven over a cliff by a groundhog ...
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This is how bad it is for bc...

Reduced to a movie reference in regards to their chances of winning a meaningful game...In Hockey (L)east no less.
 
robertearle said:
My scheme for getting Wisconsin home ice has been a win over Minn in the WCHA semi, and Northeastern losing to Vermont in the HE final. With everything else as in the 'auto-load' that was enough to get UW there. It was also a good deal of what was going to get us the five-digit tie between Minn and Colgate (with the St Lawrence almost win on Sunday).

Well, right now, we're *almost* there again: auto-load, then instead of Vermont beating NE, make it Providence beating NE, along with Wisconsin over Minnesota. It results in Minnesota beating Colgate by two at the fifth digit, and that .00002 keeps Minnesota with home ice, and Wisconsin without.
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Another wild one is if: Providence beats Northeastern; Wisconsin beats OSU in the WCHA final; and Yale beats Colgate in the ECAC final. This results in Wisconsin getting stuck at #5 despite winning the WCHA tournament.

I'm pretty sure that Wisconsin needs Colgate either to lose on Friday, or win on Saturday. I've yet to find a scenario in which Colgate loses in the ECAC final that results in Wisconsin passing either Minnesota or Colgate.
 
Still Eeyore said:
Another wild one is if: Providence beats Northeastern; Wisconsin beats OSU in the WCHA final; and Yale beats Colgate in the ECAC final. This results in Wisconsin getting stuck at #5 despite winning the WCHA tournament.

I'm pretty sure that Wisconsin needs Colgate either to lose on Friday, or win on Saturday. I've yet to find a scenario in which Colgate loses in the ECAC final that results in Wisconsin passing either Minnesota or Colgate.
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Auto-fill; then Providence beats NE, Wisconsin only beats Minn but not Ohio State, and Yale beats Colgate. That leaves Minn the 0.00002 ahead of Colgate and Wisconsin at #5. But then throw in St Anselm beats LIU. Somehow that nudges Colgate in front of Minnesota, and then the head-to-head advantage Wisconsin has/will have over Minn bumps them up to #4 and Minn to #5. Likewise Mercyhurst over Penn State. Pairwise is insane.

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Adding: then I looked at the schedule of when games are getting played on Saturday. Everything is some time in the afternoon, except the NEWHA final. Can you imagine Badger fans and Gopher fans, with the #4 home ice slot on the line, glued to the LIU-St Anselm game? LOL!
 
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robertearle said:
Can you imagine Badger fans and Gopher fans, with the #4 home ice slot on the line, glued to the LIU-St Anselm game? LOL!
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You make it sound like we wouldn't be watching that game in any case.

Might not be the worst thing, though; it looks like they've had very competitive games this year.
 
ARM said:
You make it sound like we wouldn't be watching that game in any case.

Might not be the worst thing, though; it looks like they've had very competitive games this year.
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LIU yesterday was part of ESPN-Plus, which I don't have a subscription to, so I didn't see it. But it sounds like it was a heck of a game. St Anselm was free, so I saw a good deal of it. Stonehill controlled a good bit of the play, but messed up just enough to allow St Anselm to beat them.

I always say, give me a 'rooting interest', and I can watch pretty much anything. :-)
 
robertearle said:
But then throw in St Anselm beats LIU. Somehow that nudges Colgate in front of Minnesota . . .
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I assume that it's because LIU played four games against WCHA teams in which they went 0-4 (losing all of them badly), while St Anselm played five games against ECAC teams and two against Mercyhurst and went 1-6 (dropping one to Dartmouth). Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage doesn't produce large swings, but, in this case, it doesn't need to.
 
robertearle said:
Auto-fill; then Providence beats NE, Wisconsin only beats Minn but not Ohio State, and Yale beats Colgate. That leaves Minn the 0.00002 ahead of Colgate and Wisconsin at #5. But then throw in St Anselm beats LIU. Somehow that nudges Colgate in front of Minnesota, and then the head-to-head advantage Wisconsin has/will have over Minn bumps them up to #4 and Minn to #5. Likewise Mercyhurst over Penn State. Pairwise is insane.
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In this scenario, what does UW beating OSU do?
 
Timothy A said:
In this scenario, what does UW beating OSU do?
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As Eeyore observed, Wisconsin winning the WCHA by itself doesn't get them home ice; they still need something else to bump Colgate past Minnesota. St Anselm beating LIU does it (by 0.00001!), as does Mercyhurst beating Penn State. Colgate losing their semi-final is a different way to get there.

To try to sum up (though it gets a little ugly):

path #1: Wisconsin beats Minnesota today, but loses to OSU tomorrow - Wisconsin needs a Colgate win AND a Northeastern loss AND either an LIU loss or a Penn State loss. That gets us Colgate #3, Wisconsin #4 and Minnesota #5 (and we end up playing Minn again!)

path #2: Wisconsin wins the WCHA - that removes the necessity of the Northeastern loss, but they still need a Colgate win and either the LIU loss of the Penn State loss. Also gets us Colgate #3, Wisconsin #4 and Minnesota #5.

path #3: Wisconsin wins the WCHA and Colgate loses in their semi-final - that gets is Wisconsin #3, Minnesota #4 and Colgate #5. Three WCHA teams hosting, and we don't have to play either Ohio State or Minn until the NCAA finals. I like this one! :-)
 
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robertearle said:
As Eeyore observed, Wisconsin winning the WCHA by itself doesn't get them home ice; they still need something else to bump Colgate past Minnesota. St Anselm beating LIU does it (by 0.00001!), as does Mercyhurst beating Penn State. Colgate losing their semi-final is a different way to get there.

To try to sum up (though it gets a little ugly):

path #1: Wisconsin beats Minnesota today, but loses to OSU tomorrow - Wisconsin needs a Colgate win AND a Northeastern loss AND either an LIU loss or a Penn State loss. That gets us Colgate #3, Wisconsin #4 and Minnesota #5 (and we end up playing Minn again!)

path #2: Wisconsin wins the WCHA - that removes the necessity of the Northeastern loss, but they still need a Colgate win and either the LIU loss of the Penn State loss. Also gets us Colgate #3, Wisconsin #4 and Minnesota #5.

path #3: Wisconsin wins the WCHA and Colgate loses in their semi-final - that gets is Wisconsin #3, Minnesota #4 and Colgate #5. Three WCHA teams hosting, and we don't have to play either Ohio State or Minn until the NCAA finals. I like this one! :-)
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I hate to say this -- but I recommend re-running your scenarios to confirm for close NPIs. I had to make a tweak to some of the calculations as I had the NEWHA teams that won their series in 3 with too many wins... Apologies!
 
If PC wins Hockey East, Clarkson is out, unless Clarkson also wins the ECAC, then QU is out.

If you had told me two or three months ago that QU could miss I'd have said you were crazy.
 
TonyTheTiger20 said:
I hate to say this -- but I recommend re-running your scenarios to confirm for close NPIs. I had to make a tweak to some of the calculations as I had the NEWHA teams that won their series in 3 with too many wins... Apologies!
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The Badgers and Gophers combined to moot that whole discussion. So no worries.
 
Numbers said:
Minnesota winning means they end up either 2 or 3. 2nd unless OSU and Colgate win their conferences.
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There is still a scenario left that gives Minnesota the #4 seed: Ohio State, Colgate, St Anselm, and Mercyhurst all win. It doesn't matter what happens in the HE final.

I'm pretty sure that gets the #2 seed in all scenarios in which they beat OSU.

Otherwise, they're #3.
 
robertearle said:
Providence vs Northeastern on ESPNU, right now. Regular TV, and it isn't even NCAAs yet. How'd that happen?
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I appreciate the heads up. The NHL Network has one of those PHWHA (or whatever it is) contests, so with the WCHA Final, there are three women's hockey games on broadcast TV in one day. I must have died and gone to heaven.
 
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