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2023 Pairwise Predictor

robertearle said:
Yesterday while St Lawrence was leading Quinnipiac, we had a reasonably possible scenario where who got #4 home ice was coming down to a 'tied through five digits NPI' Pairwise comparison between Colgate and Minnesota. But Q came back, and precluded the possibility. I was imagining the possibility of your iteration loop 'settling' with slightly different answers down at the eight decimal than the NCAA's iteration. :-)
Click to expand...
Omg that would have been fun, eh?

I have occasionally tweaked how far my iterations go to balance calc time vs. precision. It's an imperfect science for sure.
 
Vic,

I think you've got the first round matchups right, but not necessarily in the right bracket. I would think Clarkson/QPac would be in the OSU bracket, and Wisconsin/LIU in the Minnesota bracket. Based on 1 playing 8, and 3 playing 6 assuming first round favorites win.
 
vicb said:
I don't think that's the way it works but I may be wrong. The first five in the Pairwise are seeded 1 thru 5. Then 6 thru 11 are matched up. 6/11 go to 1, 7/10 go to 2, 8/9 go to 3 and 5 is sent to 4. TTT can tell me if what I have is correct.
Click to expand...

Last year: #4 Colgate played #5 Yale; #3 Northeastern hosted #6 Wisconsin and #10 Clarkson; #2 Minnesota hosted #8 Duluth and #9 Harvard; and #1 Ohio State hosted #7 Quinnipiac and #11 Syracuse.

Except for 'geographic considerations', they would/should assume that #6-8 will defeat #9-11 and set the bracket such that #1 gets #8 (as their reward for being #1), #2 plays #7, #3 plays #6. Making #1 play #6 just because #6 gets #11 is not giving #1 their proper reward. The one deviation to that last year was putting Duluth on the bus to Minneapolis.
 
Last edited:
robertearle said:
Last year: #4 Colgate played #5 Yale; #3 Northeastern hosted #6 Wisconsin and #10 Clarkson; #2 Minnesota hosted #8 Duluth and #9 Harvard; and #1 Ohio State hosted #7 Quinnipiac and #11 Syracuse.

Except for 'geographic considerations', they would/should assume that #6-8 will defeat #9-11 and set the bracket such that #1 gets #8 (as their reward for being #1), #2 plays #7, #3 plays #6. Making #1 play #6 just because #6 gets #11 is not giving #1 their proper reward. The one deviation to that last year was putting Duluth on the bus to Minneapolis.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the clarification. So if all of the higher seeds in the pairwise win out then [TABLE="width: 267"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]1st Round[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]Host/QF[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Quinnipiac[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]Ohio State[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Clarkson[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Minn Duluth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]Yale[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Penn State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Wisconsin[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]Minnesota[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]LIU[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]Colgate[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl72"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Northeastern[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Once Again, do you think the NC$$ Committee would opt to switch 8 Quinny with 7 Minn Duluth to avoid a first round matchup of 2 ECAC teams? Bracket integrity is not impacted that much and saves on hotels and Flights (I know we hate that).

Once again, Another option is Minn wins WCHA over tOSU and Colgate wins ECAC over Yale. [TABLE="width: 267"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]1st Round[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]Host/QF[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Quinnipiac[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]Ohio State[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Clarkson[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Minn Duluth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]Yale[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Penn State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Wisconsin[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]Minnesota[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]LIU[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]Colgate[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl72"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Northeastern[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Who do does the committee switch to once again avoid the ECAC Matchup?
And finally if all the lower seeded teams in the current pairwise won.
[TABLE="width: 267"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]1st Round[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]Host/QF[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Clarkson[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]Ohio State[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Boston College[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Northeastern[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]Yale[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Mercyhurst[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Minn Duluth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]Minnesota[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Franklin Pierce[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]Colgate[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl72"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Wisconsin[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Perfect. No first round intraleague matchups and only a chance at one QF intraleague matchup. :-)
 
Last edited:
vicb said:
Thanks for the clarification. So if all of the higher seeds in the pairwise win out then [TABLE="width: 267"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]1st Round[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl69"]Host/QF[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Quinnipiac[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]Ohio State[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Clarkson[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Minn Duluth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]Yale[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Penn State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Wisconsin[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]Minnesota[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71, align: right"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]LIU[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]Colgate[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl72"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Northeastern[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Click to expand...

If ours was a sport that the talking heads on ESPN discussed endlessly, they would *love* the storyline of the rematch of last year's Quinnipiac vs Ohio State double-OT game.
 
cct78 said:
Vic,

I think you've got the first round matchups right, but not necessarily in the right bracket. I would think Clarkson/QPac would be in the OSU bracket, and Wisconsin/LIU in the Minnesota bracket. Based on 1 playing 8, and 3 playing 6 assuming first round favorites win.
Click to expand...

I deleted my post that had the errors in seeding and added a new post.
 
robertearle said:
If ours was a sport that the talking heads on ESPN discussed endlessly, they would *love* the storyline of the rematch of last year's Quinnipiac vs Ohio State double-OT game.
Click to expand...

Would they keep Quinny at OSU and switch Clarkson and Penn State to avoid the first round matchup?
 
The handbook specifically puts avoiding first round intraconference matchups as a primary objective of setting the bracket, except for the 4/5 matchup, which will stay untouched even if it's two teams from the same conference.

So, they would split up Clarkson vs. QU. That would probably get us:

8 QU vs 10 PSU
and
7 UMD vs 9 Clarkson

​​​​​​However -- they would likely keep the 8 at the 1, 7 at the 2, and 6 at the 3. You don't really plan for avoiding intraconference matchups in the second round. It isn't really a consideration in any sport that I know of.
 
Last edited:
TonyTheTiger20 said:
The handbook specifically puts avoiding first round intraconference matchups as a primary objective of setting the bracket, except for the 4/5 matchup, which will stay untouched even if it's two teams from the same conference.
Click to expand...
The NCAA doesn't view the 4/5 matchup as a first-round pairing; those teams both had byes in the opening round. Five of the 11 teams get byes in the first round. Expanding the field didn't make this any less of a regional tournament than it has always been. It would be fun to have a year where all of top four were in and around Boston, and the rest of the field was outside of a bus trip away. The NCAA would likely start another pandemic just to save on flights by canceling the tournament.
 
robertearle said:
If ours was a sport that the talking heads on ESPN discussed endlessly, they would *love* the storyline of the rematch of last year's Quinnipiac vs Ohio State double-OT game.
Click to expand...

And if Penn State actually were to be switched into the OSU Region? They'd love storyline of Central Ohio Native Izzy Heminger coming home to compete in an NCAA game.
 
TonyTheTiger20 said:
Just the BC game! https://www.bcinterruption.com/2023...emifinals-northeastern-huskies-final-thoughts
Click to expand...

Quoting from your excellent article

PREDICTION

Writing these articles as a fan means you have to either sound like a complete homer picking your team to win despite the long odds against them, or you sound like someone who doesn’t believe in the team enough because you don’t pick them to win. My heart tells me that of course Clarkson has the talent and the desire and the grit needed to grind out their biggest win in years to put themselves in a championship game. My head tells me “Clarkson has lost four games against Yale in the last 2 years and only managed to find the back of the net more than one time in one of them... why should this game be any different?”

Sometimes you just have to let your heart win the argument. It’ll be 2-1 Clarkson, in regulation, to advance to the ECAC championship game on Friday.

LETS GO TECH
 
vicb said:
Quoting from your excellent article ...
Click to expand...
By doing this, have you tied Clarkson's semifinal destiny to that of BC? It seems like something that the hockey gods might take quite seriously.
 
ARM said:
By doing this, have you tied Clarkson's semifinal destiny to that of BC? It seems like something that the hockey gods might take quite seriously.
Click to expand...

I forgot about that. Maybe I should delete my that post. But it is probably too late. ;-)
 
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