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2023 Pairwise Predictor

TonyTheTiger20

TonyTheTiger20

#SOAR
Hi everyone,

With the end of the regular season upon us next week, I've been preparing this year's version of the Pairwise Predictor to go live after the last game. I just about have it ready and have been working through it to try to identify any bugs. If you are interested in getting a copy to help test it out during the week, send me an email at grant dot salzano at gmail.

Thanks!
 
How are the NCAA regional host locations chosen? Is it the top 4 ranked teams, so as of today, OSU, Yale, Colgate and Minn, or some other method?
 
Rightnut said:
How are the NCAA regional host locations chosen? Is it the top 4 ranked teams, so as of today, OSU, Yale, Colgate and Minn, or some other method?
Click to expand...
I'd replace "ranked" by "seeded", but other than that, those are the teams that are given first chance to host. As far as I can remember, seeded teams have always hosted, but there have been several times where they weren't able to host at their typical venue due to it not being available (e.g., UMD hosted at an arena in Superior, Wisconsin once).
 
With Colgate's loss tonight, it appears that they can only win the comparison with Minnesota is if they win the ECAC tournament and Minnesota does not win the WCHA. There are thousands of permutations that I haven't tried in the calculator, but I don't see any obvious ones that would help Colgate here.

Wisconsin needs Colgate to win its HtH with Minnesota to get into the top four. Winning their comparison with the Gophers is not enough, so it looks like the only way they can host a quarterfinal is by winning the WCHA tournament, and having Colgate win the ECAC tournament.

Edit: I've found another path for the Badgers to host. If they beat Minnesota in the WCHA semis and lose to Ohio State (but not UMD) in the final, Yale loses in its ECAC semifinal, and Colgate wins the ECAC, then there's a QF in Madison.

Second Edit: Wisconsin doesn't need Colgate to with the ECAC, but, if they don't, then the Badgers need them to lose either to Princeton or in the semi-final. If that happen, Wisconsin passes Colgate, which also gives them more Pairwise wins than Minnesota. If Colgate makes it to the ECAC final, Wisconsin cannot pass them.
 
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Still Eeyore said:
With Colgate's loss tonight, it appears that they can only win the comparison with Minnesota is if they win the ECAC tournament and Minnesota does not win the WCHA. There are thousands of permutations that I haven't tried in the calculator, but I don't see any obvious ones that would help Colgate here.

Wisconsin needs Colgate to win its HtH with Minnesota to get into the top four. Winning their comparison with the Gophers is not enough, so it looks like the only way they can host a quarterfinal is by winning the WCHA tournament, and having Colgate win the ECAC tournament.

Edit: I've found another path for the Badgers to host. If they beat Minnesota in the WCHA semis and lose to Ohio State (but not UMD) in the final, Yale loses in its ECAC semifinal, and Colgate wins the ECAC, then there's a QF in Madison.

Second Edit: Wisconsin doesn't need Colgate to with the ECAC, but, if they don't, then the Badgers need them to lose either to Princeton or in the semi-final. If that happen, Wisconsin passes Colgate, which also gives them more Pairwise wins than Minnesota. If Colgate makes it to the ECAC final, Wisconsin cannot pass them.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the synopsis. It's a bummer they put themselves in this position. What would suck is going east with no video stream coverage.
 
Auto-fill the bracket, and then make the three changes 'Colgate in 3', 'Franklin Piece in 3' and 'St Anselm in 3' to account for yesterday's upsets (if you want to call them that).

Then have Wisconsin beat Minn in the WCHA semi, and Vermont beat Northeastern in the HE final. Wisconsin goes to 4th, Minnesota goes to 5th.

Am I getting something wrong regarding yesterday, etc?
 
Timothy A said:
What would suck is going east with no video stream coverage.
Click to expand...
Anyone out east who might host -- NU and Yale and Colgate -- all stream on ESPN+, which is an excellent product at an excellent price.

Also I feel like I remember the NCAA requiring that all tournament games be streamed for free but I might be imagining that part.
 
robertearle said:
Auto-fill the bracket, and then make the three changes 'Colgate in 3', 'Franklin Piece in 3' and 'St Anselm in 3' to account for yesterday's upsets (if you want to call them that).

Then have Wisconsin beat Minn in the WCHA semi, and Vermont beat Northeastern in the HE final. Wisconsin goes to 4th, Minnesota goes to 5th.

Am I getting something wrong regarding yesterday, etc?
Click to expand...

I get this result as well... seems right to me!
 
TonyTheTiger20 said:
Also I feel like I remember the NCAA requiring that all tournament games be streamed for free but I might be imagining that part.
Click to expand...
That's always been the deal in the past. The streams may have been very lousy in some cases, but they were free. It seems like they sometimes turn to a different provider, if the typical pay site isn't interested in giving its product away for free.
 
I read the following in an article by Patrick Donnelly on NC$$.com https://www.ncaa.com/news/icehockey-...cess-explained

In the article he states

Tournament format
The NC women's ice hockey championship is a single-elimination tournament.
The top four seeds of the five automatic qualifiers will serve as host sites for the regionals. Those top four teams are the No. 1 seeds, and the fifth overall program is the top No. 2 seed.

So is he implying that the winners of the post season tournaments (since they are the 5 automatic qualifiers) will be the host sites with obviously the NEWHA Champ being the #5?

The Pairwise as it stands today except #11 Vermont is out and lets say LIU is the NEWHA Champ and the Tourney champs are all won by the highest pairwise rated team. [TABLE="class: table-active, cellspacing: 0"]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Ohio State is WCHA CHAMP[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Yale is ECAC CHAMP[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Colgate[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Northeastern is HE CHAMP[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Wisconsin[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Minnesota Duluth[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]Quinnipiac[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]Clarkson[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]Penn State is CHA CHAMP[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]LIU is NEWHA CHAMP[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
According to what he wrote the top 4 seeds are:

1 OSU
2 Yale
3 Northeastern
4 Penn State

And will host the regionals with the #5 champ LIU being sent to #4 Penn State.
5 LIU

and the rest would be seeded
6 Minn
7 Colgate
8 Wisconsin
9 Minn Duluth
10 Quinny
11 Clarkson

So the tourney is
Minn vs Clarkson winner plays OSU
Colgate vs Quinny winner plays Yale
Wisconsin vs Minn Duluth winner plays Northeastern
No first round game then LIU plays Penn State

Also likely that say Minn Duluth and Colgate switch to avoid 1st round same Conference games.

Is this guy correct in what he wrote? If this is correct, I would much rather be the #4 Penn State having to face #5 LIU vs #1 OSU having to face the winner of the Minn/Clarkson game for a chance at a Frozen 4 berth.
 
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I think today's results means the only team sitting on the bubble is Clarkson, and the only worry they have is somebody knocking off Northeastern in the HE tournament.

Any other 'upset' doesn't result in somebody 'stealing' a top nine spot. CHA and NEWHA winners will be #10 and #11, all four remaining WCHA teams are already in the top 8, and the other three ECAC teams besides Clarkson are in the top eight.
 
robertearle said:
I think today's results means the only team sitting on the bubble is Clarkson, and the only worry they have is somebody knocking off Northeastern in the HE tournament.

Any other 'upset' doesn't result in somebody 'stealing' a top nine spot. CHA and NEWHA winners will be #10 and #11, all four remaining WCHA teams are already in the top 8, and the other three ECAC teams besides Clarkson are in the top eight.
Click to expand...

If Clarkson wins the ECAC title and someone other than Northeastern wins WHE, the Knights will be the 8th seed and Quinny is the last team out unless Mercyhurst wins the CHA then Penn State is the last team out. If NE wins WHE, Yale wins the ECAC over Colgate. Wisconsin wins the WCHA over Ohio State and Penn State wins the CHA, then Clarkson would be the 10th seed. Any other combinations I tried Clarkson is the 9th seed as long as NE wins WHE. Any team other than NE winning WHE then Clarkson has to win the ECAC.

Also Penn State must win the CHA tourney to get into the NC$$ Tourney. All combinations I tried if they lose to Mercyhurst then they are out.
 
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ARM said:
Thanks for all of the work that you put into this!
Click to expand...

I love doing it!

You'll be entertained to know that I spent like an hour and a half last night wondering why my numbers weren't matching USCHO's (again) despite having the same results input, only to have USCHO's numbers update on their own all of a sudden to match mine after I spent all that time trying to figure out what the heck was going on. Good times lol
 
TonyTheTiger20 said:
I love doing it!

You'll be entertained to know that I spent like an hour and a half last night wondering why my numbers weren't matching USCHO's (again) despite having the same results input, only to have USCHO's numbers update on their own all of a sudden to match mine after I spent all that time trying to figure out what the heck was going on. Good times lol
Click to expand...

Yesterday while St Lawrence was leading Quinnipiac, we had a reasonably possible scenario where who got #4 home ice was coming down to a 'tied through five digits NPI' Pairwise comparison between Colgate and Minnesota. But Q came back, and precluded the possibility. I was imagining the possibility of your iteration loop 'settling' with slightly different answers down at the eight decimal than the NCAA's iteration. :-)
 
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