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2023 D3 Bracketology

P

Pioneer247

Member
Now that we're into the holiday break, seems like as good of time as any to break out the ole bracketology machine

A note for this first one: It's based on very incomplete data at the moment. Teams have played more games than other teams in-conference, the NESCAC has played fewer games than everybody else, etc etc. I didn't adjust for who I thought will be in first, it's just whoever is in first as of this moment is who I have claiming an auto-bid at this moment

First, the eight Auto-Bids with current PWR ranking (* indicates Western teams):
CCC - Endicott (2)
MASCAC - Plymouth State (13)
MIAC - St. Olaf (22)*
NCHA - Aurora (17)*
NEHC - Hobart (1)
NESCAC - Amherst (T-3)
SUNYAC - Oswego State (14)
UCHC - Nazareth (38)

For the four at-large bids we have:
AL1: Utica (T-3)
AL2: Wesleyan (T-5)
AL3: Adrian (T-5)*
AL4: Curry (7)

Note: for ties in the PWR, I used RPI as a tiebreaker for these circumstances

That gives us the dreaded 9 East-3 West split, and with the teams we have, we have 3 different scenarios to make it all work

1) Hobart and Adrian both get byes into the Quarterfinal, Adrian travels to Hobart, winner goes to the Frozen Four

2) Oswego State and Adrian both get byes into the Quarterfinal, Oswego travels to Adrian, winner goes to the Frozen Four

3) Only Hobart gets a bye into the quarterfinal, Oswego travels to Adrian for a first round matchup, with the winner coming back to the Cooler for a Quarterfinal game vs Hobart

I don't know what the NCAA would do in this scenario, but to protect bracket integrity, I am going to go with Option 3 for the time being, which would leave us with 7 teams in the East to get 2 spots in the Frozen Four. Ranked top to bottom, we'd have:

1 -Endicott
2 - Utica
3- Amherst
4- Wesleyan
5- Curry
6- Plymouth State
7- Nazareth

In this scenario, Endicott would get a bye to the quarterfinal, and we'd flip Nazareth and Plymouth State to avoid an inter-conference first round game, so that would leave us with:

6 Plymouth State @ 2 Utica
7 Nazareth @ 3 Amherst
5 Curry @ 4 Wesleyan

For the national quarterfinals, you'd have:
QF1: Winner of Oswego State/Adrain @ Hobart
QF2: Winner of Nazareth/Amherst @ Winner of Plymouth State/Utica
QF3: Winner of Curry/Wesleyan @ Endicott
QF4: St. Olaf @ Aurora

For the Frozen Four pairings, you'd have:
QF1 vs QF4
QF2 vs QF3

And if it's the Top 4 teams coming out (Hobart, Endicott, Utica, Aurora), I'd expect the Frozen Four to be in Utica, who would have the facilities to host the tournament in the easiest fashion

Let me know what y'all think, and I'll be posting new ones every weekend or two once the season gets back underway!
 
Last edited:
sshablak said:
Nazareth #38 in the PWR, explain how they're in ?
Click to expand...

As I explained at the top, I took the very literal conference standings and used the teams in first as the auto-bid. Nazareth is currently in 1st in the UCHC (by 1 point over Utica, with 2 more games played)
 
The PWR has shifted in the last 2 days, even with no games being played, and it did make small, but significant changes to the outlook of the bracket as it stands:

CCC - Endicott (T-2)
MASCAC - Plymouth State (12)
MIAC - St. Olaf (8)*
NCHA - Aurora (19)*
NEHC - Hobart (1)
NESCAC - Amherst (T-5)
SUNYAC - Oswego State (14)
UCHC - Nazareth (36)

At-Large:

Utica (T-2)
Wesleyan (4)
Adrian (T-5)*
Augsburg (7)*

Unfortunately, if Hobart/Oswego/Adrian are all in this bracket, keeping those 3 together is the only way the bracket works with the NCAA's rules, so for the purposes of my bracketology, they will always stay together

First Round:
Oswego @ Adrian
Nazareth @ Endicott
Plymouth State @ Amherst
Curry @ Wesleyan
Aurora @ St. Olaf

Quarterfinal:
QF1: Oswego/Adrian @ Hobart
QF2: Curry/Wesleyan @ Utica
QF3: Plymouth State/Amherst @ Nazareth/Endicott
QF4: Aurora/St. Olaf @ Augsburg

Frozen Four:
QF1 v. QF4
QF2 v. QF3
 
iontyre said:
I have to think Geneseo ends up in here somewhere...
Click to expand...

At 9-3-2 and #17 in the Pairwise, they have a long way to go to get into the post-season picture. Their ticket may be winning SUNY already. Not sure any of the SUNY teams are in play for at-large already.
 
spwood said:
At 9-3-2 and #17 in the Pairwise, they have a long way to go to get into the post-season picture. Their ticket may be winning SUNY already. Not sure any of the SUNY teams are in play for at-large already.
Click to expand...

I don't see Nazareth winning the UCHC. Utica will get the auto there ( I know this is based on current standings etc) so that opens another at large that Utica is currently taking in this current scenario.
 
New year, new bracketology! As a note, I have changed my method slightly, I am using Points% instead of just the current point total in order to assign automatic bids, as I feel like that creates a better picture of what we're going to be looking at, so with that said, if the season ended today, the auto-bids would be (with their PWR):

CCC: Endicott (T-2)
MASCAC: Plymouth State (6)
MIAC: St. Scholastica (35)
NCHA: Aurora (T-18)
NEHC: Hobart (5)
NESCAC: Amherst (31)
SUNYAC: Oswego (T-12)
UCHC: Utica (T-2*)

And your at-larges would be:

Curry (1)
Adrian (T-2)
Norwich (7)
UW-Stevens Point (8)

There is a 3 way tie in the PWR for 2nd place, between Utica, Adrian, and Endicott. For the purposes of this bracket, I used the RPI, as a tiebreaker, leaving us with Utica in 2nd, Endicott in 3rd, and Adrian in 4th

Like before, the inclusion of Oswego/Hobart/Adrian make that a very good pod of 3 teams, leaving a 3 team pod of Western teams, and then 6 teams in the East for 2 Frozen Four spots

For the first round byes, we have:
Stevens-Point
Adrian
Curry
Utica

First Round Matchups:
Oswego @ Hobart
St. Scholastica @ Aurora
Amherst @ Endicott
Norwich @ Plymouth State

And for the QF pairings, we have:
QF1: Oswego/Hobart @ Adrian
QF2: St. Scholastica/Aurora @ UW-Stevens Point
QF3: Amherst/Endicott @ Utica
QF4: Norwich/Plymouth State @ Curry

This one is pretty cut and dry in my opinion, no big controversies or anything like that, love to hear how you all would feel about a tourney that looked like this
 
I know there is a lot of hockey left, but the percentage method doesn’t always work. In the NEHC, although Hobart has a higher percentage, Norwich would be the auto bid with points.
 
jerrynu26 said:
I know there is a lot of hockey left, but the percentage method doesn’t always work. In the NEHC, although Hobart has a higher percentage, Norwich would be the auto bid with points.
Click to expand...

That's because Norwich has played more games right now. Which is exactly why Pioneer247 used the points percentage (I would have used winning pct., but it's virtually the same). Using just points for this mock up this early in the season just didn't work, as Nazareth over Utica clearly showed. I'm glad he changed it. It at least gives us a closer semblance to reality.

Of course, this is all for fun, because the AQs are given out after the conference playoffs, and we all know there is always at least one twist or two which occurs there.
 
Russell Jaslow said:
That's because Norwich has played more games right now. Which is exactly why Pioneer247 used the points percentage (I would have used winning pct., but it's virtually the same). Using just points for this mock up this early in the season just didn't work, as Nazareth over Utica clearly showed. I'm glad he changed it. It at least gives us a closer semblance to reality.

Of course, this is all for fun, because the AQs are given out after the conference playoffs, and we all know there is always at least one twist or two which occurs there.
Click to expand...

At least a couple of twists and turns.

If not for the AQ's, prospective bracketology would carry some weight.

Considering that the AQ's exist, it doesn't... Not that isn't some fun anyway.
 
CCC out of conference record is very impressive this year and boosting Endicott and Curry to the top of the pairwise. We're getting very close to the numbers being statistically relevant as the NESCAC schools continue to make up games and catch up with where the rest of the country is.

Most interesting thing to me that I see right now...Do any of the eastern teams in the top 5 of the pairwise have the ability to host the FF that aren't Utica?

Curry and Hobart surely do not...Endicott (maybe?), but that's probably a no as well if I had to guess meaning Utica (5th) and Norwich (7th) would be next in line as it currently stands. Still 6 weeks of hockey left and PLENTY can change.
 
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