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2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

trixR4kids said:
As for Kep’s post, assuming that non-white people will just automatically vote for lanyard liberals who do nothing to change the direction the country has gone for 40-50 years probably isn’t a good assumption. We all saw Nancy stuttering like an idiot the other day as she got shouted down by non-white people who want serious immigration reform.
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You just can't help yourself.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

You literally offer nothing to this thread other than ad Homs directed at me so....
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

trixR4kids said:
We’ve already seen polling indicate that blue dog democrats suppress turnout and more progressive ones increase it.
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While this is my instinct I have not seen a really good statistical argument either for it or for the centrist assumption that it's the reverse. Mostly I think people rely on anecdotal evidence, which consists of, for the centrists: McGovern 1972, and for the leftists every other electoral loss of the last 50 years.

As I say, I have the same gut instinct as you -- the path to winning for us is GO LEFT. The Republicans showed us that in this ostensibly centrist country they can go literally so far right they merge with fascism and they can still win. Extremism is only bad when it's the other guy. A radical, extremist Left could flourish nationally (and of course in the blue states and compete in the purple) even considering we have to go up against not just conservative voters but also the rich who control the levers of power and the media. But my instinct, same as yours, is the way to win is to be proud, stand up, shout our values, don't apologize, and show voters we are confident and strong and we do not take any sh-t.
 
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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Kepler said:
While this is my instinct I have not seen a really good statistical argument either for it or for the centrist assumption that it's the reverse. Mostly I think people rely on anecdotal evidence, which consists of, for the centrists: McGovern 1972, and for the leftists every other electoral loss of the last 50 years.
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So I'm going by the assumption of trix that Obama and Clinton are centrists along with Hillary, Gore, Kerry, etc. Only potted plant Kerry lost the popular vote.

In the 70's-80's which you and I lived through, centrist Dems went 1 out of 2 (Carter both times) while liberals (McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis) got fuking crushed. That's not my opinion. Those elections were blowouts. So, the historical stats back up Dem moderates vs Dem liberals in terms of winning the Presidency, using trix' definition of who's a centrist. Now of course we'll put in the obvious caveat that past results don't predict the future. However, I'd like some decent evidence that something has changed recently vs...oh I don't know...2012 when corporate conservadem Obama won his 2nd term with 51% of the vote... ;)
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

My opinion, yours may vary:

72 McGovern Left Lost
76 Carter Center Won
80 Carter Center Lost
84 Mondale Left Lost
88 Dukakis Center Lost
92 Clinton Left Won
96 Clinton Center Won
00 Gore Center Lost
04 Kerry Center Lost
08 Obama Left Won
12 Obama Center Won
16 Hillary Center Lost

Left: 2-2
Center: 3-5

I move both Clinton and Obama from Left in their first election for what they ran as to Center in the re-election for their record.

I would like to point out, however that since 1984 the record is:

Left: 2-0
Center: 2-4

and both Center wins got into office in the first place by running as Left.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Kepler said:
My opinion, yours may vary:

72 McGovern Left Lost
76 Carter Center Won
80 Carter Center Lost
84 Mondale Left Lost
88 Dukakis Center Lost
92 Clinton Left Won
96 Clinton Center Won
00 Gore Center Lost
04 Kerry Center Lost
08 Obama Left Won
12 Obama Center Won
16 Hillary Center Lost

Left: 2-2
Center: 3-5

I move both Clinton and Obama from Left in their first election for what they ran as to Center in the re-election for their record.

I would like to point out, however that since 1984 the record is:

Left: 2-0
Center: 2-4

and both Center wins got into office in the first place by running as Left.
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Doesn't 538 have some semi-objective rating of how a president ran vs. how they governed? I could have sworn they had something like that.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Kepler said:
My opinion, yours may vary:

72 McGovern Left Lost
76 Carter Center Won
80 Carter Center Lost
84 Mondale Left Lost
88 Dukakis Center Lost
92 Clinton Left Won
96 Clinton Center Won
00 Gore Center Lost
04 Kerry Center Lost
08 Obama Left Won
12 Obama Center Won
16 Hillary Center Lost

Left: 2-2
Center: 3-5

I move both Clinton and Obama from Left in their first election for what they ran as to Center in the re-election for their record.

I would like to point out, however that since 1984 the record is:

Left: 2-0
Center: 2-4

and both Center wins got into office in the first place by running as Left.
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Yeah, I think your thumb's on the scale on a few of these Kep! Duke = centrist? But conservaDems Clinton and Obama were leftists?? Could have fooled me from reading your comments out here. ;)
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

dxmnkd316 said:
Doesn't 538 have some semi-objective rating of how a president ran vs. how they governed? I could have sworn they had something like that.
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Most presidents are moderated after the election. It (was) the nature of the office, and need to compromise with a Congress that usually had a different agenda, even when one party controlled both branches.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Acting like there weren’t any other factors that led to McGovern being crushed decades ago other than “was too left” is the exact kind of analysis I’d expect out of Rover lmfao.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Good lord, watching trix and Rover go at it is like watching the Cripple Fight from South Park :D

<img src="https://media.giphy.com/media/l0HlLtQ0qOpz6Ueyc/giphy.gif" />
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

St. Clown said:
Most presidents are moderated after the election. It (was) the nature of the office, and need to compromise with a Congress that usually had a different agenda, even when one party controlled both branches.
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LBJ was the last Democrat to run Center and govern Left. I highly recommend this strategy. The right calls anything to the left of Hitler "Communism!" anyway so bring it.

Several Republicans have run Center and governed (Far) Right: both Bushes and Dump (who ran on "a pox on both your houses" but immediately fell into lockstep with the GOP radical right agenda).
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Kepler said:
LBJ was the last Democrat to run Center and govern Left. I highly recommend this strategy. The right calls anything to the left of Hitler "Communism!" anyway so bring it.

Several Republicans have run Center and governed (Far) Right: both Bushes and Dump (who ran on "a pox on both your houses" but immediately fell into lockstep with the GOP radical right agenda).
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The left calls anything to the right of Bernie "Alt-Right." ;)

And nice uncalled-for shot at me, trixie.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

The Rube said:
You might as well. Amy K to you is a commie rightie who has no business being a Democrat.....
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No. My problem with her has nothing to do with her policy positions. My problem with her is she thinks she can negotiate with terrorists. And what's funny about it is 5 minutes after she brags about being able to work with Turtle Boy she whines that he isn't allowing a vote on her bill.
 
Rover said:
Yeah, I think your thumb's on the scale on a few of these Kep! Duke = centrist? But conservaDems Clinton and Obama were leftists?? Could have fooled me from reading your comments out here. ;)
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Yup, Kepler dead wrong on his characterizations
 
Kepler said:
LBJ was the last Democrat to run Center and govern Left. I highly recommend this strategy. The right calls anything to the left of Hitler "Communism!" anyway so bring it.

Several Republicans have run Center and governed (Far) Right: both Bushes and Dump (who ran on "a pox on both your houses" but immediately fell into lockstep with the GOP radical right agenda).
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Passing laws to help colored and poor folks in the 60’s was running center?!?! :p

LBJ ran so far left he was personally responsible for the long term exodus of traditional Dems to the R party (which wasn’t necessarily a bad thing)
 
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