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2019 - 20 Rankings

Re: 2019 - 20 Rankings

So UMD gets blown out by MN and BSU gets blown out by OSU (though same 5-goal differential) but BSU drops 1 or 2 spots in the Pairwise while UMD stays at #9. And #10 won their last game while #11 tied theirs. How does UMD hold that #9 spot??
 
Re: 2019 - 20 Rankings

Offsides Guy said:
So UMD gets blown out by MN and BSU gets blown out by OSU (though same 5-goal differential) but BSU drops 1 or 2 spots in the Pairwise while UMD stays at #9. And #10 won their last game while #11 tied theirs. How does UMD hold that #9 spot??
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1) A loss to Minnesota's .800 winning percentage doesn't hurt as much as a loss to OSU's .700 winning percentage;
2) UMD had a substantial RPI edge on #10 Harvard going into the weekend, while BSU is in the middle of a large pack of teams that have almost identical RPIs.

RPI (and about 98% of the Pairwise is just RPI) is a dumb, but pretty simple, mathematical formula. The explanation for why something happens in it is always a pretty simple mathematical answer.
 
Still Eeyore said:
1) A loss to Minnesota's .800 winning percentage doesn't hurt as much as a loss to OSU's .700 winning percentage;
2) UMD had a substantial RPI edge on #10 Harvard going into the weekend, while BSU is in the middle of a large pack of teams that have almost identical RPIs.

RPI (and about 98% of the Pairwise is just RPI) is a dumb, but pretty simple, mathematical formula. The explanation for why something happens in it is always a pretty simple mathematical answer.
Click to expand...

Not sure if your last sentence was taking a shot at me or not but I do appreciate the explanation!
 
Re: 2019 - 20 Rankings

Still Eeyore said:
RPI (and about 98% of the Pairwise is just RPI) ...
Click to expand...

Right now - and every time I've looked this year - RPI is 100% of the Pairwise; no deviation at all. Your RPI rank is your Pairwise rank.

(The only teams for which it can possibly be otherwise are pairs that have a head-to-head component.)
 
Re: 2019 - 20 Rankings

robertearle said:
Right now - and every time I've looked this year - RPI is 100% of the Pairwise; no deviation at all. Your RPI rank is your Pairwise rank.

(The only teams for which it can possibly be otherwise are pairs that have a head-to-head component.)
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There's also the NCAA's caveat that they might, maybe, could decide that a large advantage in one criterion would outweigh a small advantage in another, even if the the pairing would otherwise go the other way. I don't know if that will ever matter, and it wouldn't show up in the USCHO numbers even if it did. And there are the weird excuses the NCAA has trotted out to justify sending a team to one quarterfinal site rather than another, instead of just admitting that the decision is due to a Green Line ticket being cheaper than bus fare.

So the other 2% is a hedge against the committee opting to ignore their own numbers.
 
Re: 2019 - 20 Rankings

robertearle said:
Right now - and every time I've looked this year - RPI is 100% of the Pairwise; no deviation at all. Your RPI rank is your Pairwise rank.

(The only teams for which it can possibly be otherwise are pairs that have a head-to-head component.)
Click to expand...

Allow me to amend that a bit: "The only teams for which it can possibly be otherwise are pairs that have a head-to-head component, AND that head-to-head was something other than an even split.

I was looking at the teams at 7,8,and 9 in the Pairwise, and Clarkson vs Duluth do indeed have a head-to-head component. But it was a two-game weekend split; meaning for Pairwise purposes, it may as well not even exist. Their pair boils down to 'better RPI', even though they did play one another. Likewise - so far, anyway - Minnesota vs Ohio State; four games played and split means their pair boils down to better RPI (again, at least so far).
 
Re: 2019 - 20 Rankings

I can only imagine all that hinges on how the Union vs Lindenwood comparison might shake out. :D
 
Re: 2019 - 20 Rankings

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Input Union and Lindenwood at the top and you'll see Lindenwood with a 1-0-1 H2H and the CoOpp point as well despite Union being ahead in RPI.
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I guess I had forgotten you had posted this. Thanks again for it (and the work it must have taken!)

I notice that USCHO likely has a bug somewhere in theirs right now.

If you go down the column of 'pairwise wins', they have the same [14,14,13,11,11,11,10] sequence of wins that you have. And that gives the right number of total comparisons (that is, it adds up to the correct number of comparisons made, same as if it had just been in normal order 15,14,13,12,11,10,9). But after that, USCHO has 7 and 7 for Union and Lindenwood; so, one fewer awarded pair win that normal sequence. But that missing pair win has not been awarded to anyone else anywhere else. So either they 'missed' awarding a pair win, or they have a comparison as a tie (!?), which I guess could happen if the RPIs were a dead heat. But of course, there are no dead heats as far as RPI goes in their table.
 
Re: 2019 - 20 Rankings

robertearle said:
I guess I had forgotten you had posted this. Thanks again for it (and the work it must have taken!)

I notice that USCHO likely has a bug somewhere in theirs right now.

If you go down the column of 'pairwise wins', they have the same [14,14,13,11,11,11,10] sequence of wins that you have. And that gives the right number of total comparisons (that is, it adds up to the correct number of comparisons made, same as if it had just been in normal order 15,14,13,12,11,10,9). But after that, USCHO has 7 and 7 for Union and Lindenwood; so, one fewer awarded pair win that normal sequence. But that missing pair win has not been awarded to anyone else anywhere else. So either they 'missed' awarding a pair win, or they have a comparison as a tie (!?), which I guess could happen if the RPIs were a dead heat. But of course, there are no dead heats as far as RPI goes in their table.
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Yeah USCHO being wrong again wouldn't surprise me haha... Their KRACH is still wayyyy off last I checked the other day.
 
Re: 2019 - 20 Rankings

My weekly guess for the voting at the top of the polls:

The points for the top four suggest, at least, that all the votes for 1-through-4 went to Wisconsin, Cornell, Northeastern and Minnesota; Ohio State appears to have lost its one '4th place' vote from last week. And they seem to be 'of two minds' regarding Northeastern...

One set of guesses that 'works':
Wisconsin - 14 at #1, and 1 at #2
Cornell - 1 at #1, 3 at #2, 10 at #3, 1 at #4
Northeastern - 0 at #1, 8 at #2, 0 at #3, and 7 at #4
Minnesota - 0 at #1, 3 at #2, 5 at #3, and 7 at #4


Wisconsin - (14 x 10) + (1 x 9) = 149
Cornell - (1 x 10) + (3 x 9) + (10 x 8) + (1 x 7) = 124
Northeastern - (8 x 9) + (0 x 8) + (7 x 7) = 121
Minnesota - (3 x 9) + (5 x 8) + (7 x 7)= 116
 
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Re: 2019 - 20 Rankings

USCHO Division I Women's Poll - February 3, 2020
Rnk Team (Last Poll)
1. Wisconsin (1)
2. Cornell (4)
3. Northeastern (3)
4. Minnesota (2)
5. Ohio State (5)
6. Princeton (6)
7. Clarkson (7)
8. Boston University (8)
9. Minnesota Duluth (9)
10. Harvard (10)

Others receiving votes: Robert Morris 2, Quinnipiac 2, Bemidji State 1, Providence 1

As one would expect, the big change in this week's poll is the Gophers falling from No. 2 to No. 4, following their series split with No. 9 Minnesota Duluth. This latest loss allowed Cornell to swap places with Minnesota, as they moved to No. 2 on the strength (?) of their 1-1 tie with Clarkson and narrow 3-2 win over St. Lawrence. Meanwhile, Northeastern needed overtime to top UConn 3-2 but did have a quality (albeit narrow) win over BU to hold on to No. 3. I guess the point is neither of these two contenders lost, while Minnesota's struggles continue, having now lost four of their last six including their 0-2 defeat at the hands of their rival from Duluth.

Otherwise, no changes in this week's poll, as all the teams from Nos. 5 to 10 hold their positions.
 
Re: 2019 - 20 Rankings

D2D said:
Otherwise, no changes in this week's poll, as all the teams from Nos. 5 to 10 hold their positions.
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The BU vs UMD ranking is interesting. BU has a better win % and is a tad better in RPI. UMD is considerably better in KRACH and WCHODR. I guess it comes down to how much credit a team receives for playing a more difficult schedule.
 
Re: 2019 - 20 Rankings

Timothy A said:
How precarious is MN's hold on 4 over OSU?
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If OSU sweeps UMD and UM splits in Bemidji, the Gophers still lead the Buckeyes. If that happens and OSU splits at UW, the Gophers still lead the Buckeyes, but if OSU sweeps in Madison, then the Buckeyes vault up to third. So Wisconsin has a lot of say in whether or not Minnesota might head to Madison for an NCAA quarterfinal.
 
Re: 2019 - 20 Rankings

ARM said:
If OSU sweeps UMD and UM splits in Bemidji, the Gophers still lead the Buckeyes. If that happens and OSU splits at UW, the Gophers still lead the Buckeyes, but if OSU sweeps in Madison, then the Buckeyes vault up to third. So Wisconsin has a lot of say in whether or not Minnesota might head to Madison for an NCAA quarterfinal.
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I was thinking that OSU and MN are getting kinda destined to the 4-5 matchup in the NCAA's. Princeton to NE, Clarkson to Cornell and the CHA winner to UW. Not sure if the number crunching programs see it that way or if those defy the laws of flight rules. Obviously I'm WAY ahead here, just fun to think about.
 
Re: 2019 - 20 Rankings

Timothy A said:
How precarious is MN's hold on 4 over OSU?
Click to expand...
The Buckeyes travel to Duluth this coming weekend, and if the Bulldogs play anything like they did on Saturday (with Rooney standing on her head) then I think we're looking at two closely contested games...a split maybe?

Then on the following weekend they're in Madison which obviously will be difficult. Realistically they'd be very pleased to split with Bucky.

Their final regular season series is at home vs. St. Cloud, and you would expect a 6 point sweep.

Meanwhile the Gophers are down to just two remaining series, at Bemidji this weekend, then they will host Minnesota State on the 21st and 22nd. Although favored in both - they SHOULD win all four games - you just never know with this team lately.

So how precarious is MN's hold on 4 over OSU? I think we'll know a lot more after this weekend, with each series - in Duluth and in Bemidji - being "too close to call" in my opinion.
 
Re: 2019 - 20 Rankings

Timothy A said:
I was thinking that OSU and MN are getting kinda destined to the 4-5 matchup in the NCAA's.
Click to expand...
Remember that it is all about limiting flights. So if Minnesota slides to #5 and has to travel somewhere, well shazzam! We can put the Gophers on a bus trip to Madison. If you were counting on playing a CHA team, no worries. You've done very well in the tourney vs UM of late.
 
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