2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

[Slap Shot]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

The three states that pushed Trump across the line in 2016 elected Democratic Senators and Governors. On the other hand, the Senate is going to be a long term GOP hold until progressive people stop all moving to about a dozen states

Texas is **** near purple now and the influx of immigrants isn't going to reverse that color trend.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

You don't think gridlock will start until 2020? I think both houses of congress will not let anything championed by the other side get through at all starting immediately. Senate will push judges and the House will push investigations. Not sure what either one will actually accomplish. Obstruction all around.

I would not bet against that prognostication.

Only happy group? Wall Street. They know not much'll change economic/tax policy -wise because of the gridlock.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

well, about 1,500,0000 convicted felons in Florida just got their right to vote back, including about 18% of the African-American population. That's going to change things in 2 years.

That is what I said last night. That was a big shift in FL. (if they vote mind you)

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

So, Comrade Rohrabacher went down to defeat last night?

Yep!

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

That is what I said last night. That was a big shift in FL. (if they vote mind you)

Handy, did you just says it's about who shows .... nevermind.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

I would not bet against that prognostication.

Only happy group? Wall Street. They know not much'll change economic/tax policy -wise because of the gridlock.

Wall Street hasnt been happy for weeks. They know a slide is coming and the Fed will be raising rates. Trump knows this too...

I look for the amount of Trump EOs to skyrocket now that the House will just point and laugh at him when he puts forth his ridiculous stuff.

 

[joecct]

It's 26 right now. Will be about 33-35 by the time everything's done.

Yup - here's the NYT list

@Convertbond: Midterm Election, Most House Seats Lost by President's Party in Power

2010 Obama: -63
1994 Clinton: -52
1958: Eisenhower: -48
1974 Ford (Nixon): -48
1966 Johnson: -47
1946 Truman: -45
2006 Bush: -30
1950 Truman: -29
1982 Reagan: -26
2018 Trump: -26

*NY Times data since 1946

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

Handy, did you just says it's about who shows .... nevermind.

No I didnt...and for the love of all that is holy would you stop pretending you invented that. You werent even the first around here to say it. You are as repetitive as Scooby minus all the fire and brimstone

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

Was there any real "stop the presses!" (do they still say that?) surprise last night?

Mid-term.
The House tends to go against the party of the President. Check.
The Senate doesn't waggle much.
Most media pundits expected a lot of R governors to flop to D (given it was 33/50 not long ago).

Maybe the "blue wall" states putting a lot of state Ds in place?
Florida?
McCaskill in MO?

Honestly, last night felt "to script" in a lot of ways.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

No I didnt...and for the love of all that is holy would you stop pretending you invented that. You werent even the first around here to say it. You are as repetitive as Scooby minus all the fire and brimstone

C'mon Handy, I don't claim it as mine. I just use it as a pointed stick on your ribs: poke, poke.

All in good fun.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

Most of the states the Rs will be defending are deep red. If anything, look at the D’s losing one more as Doug Jones is up again in a deep red state.

I don't think this is accurate. Doug Jones is indeed at risk but that's about it. GOP has ME, CO, IA and NC.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

No but in 2 years if Trump loses the Governor flips will be the bellweather as to why it happened. He lost the states he beat Clinton with (Penn, Sconnie, MEEEECHIGAN) sort of bolstering the narrative that without Clinton on the ballot he is beatable.

Plus I would say Health Care being expanded was a huge deal. Even a few weeks ago people thought it might be a loser for the Dems...but the people have spoken and they want Health Care no matter what it is called.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

C'mon Handy, I don't claim it as mine. I just use it as a pointed stick on your ribs: poke, poke.

All in good fun.

Yeah but you arent poking us...we just kind of look at you like you are the crazy uncle who had one too many brandies and is now dressing up like Santa even though it isnt Christmas

 

[Drew S.]

I don't think this is accurate. Doug Jones is indeed at risk but that's about it. GOP has ME, CO, IA and NC.

Last night allows Collins and others to be more moderate the next couple of years. I would say realistically you pick up net one in 2020 which makes it 54-46.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

Texas is **** near purple now and the influx of immigrants isn't going to reverse that color trend.

It's got a ways to go though. The Dems ran pretty much the best possible candidate in the country in that Texas Senate race against a guy probably more disliked in Texas and elsewhere than just about any politician, and they still fell a bit short. Any normal Republican candidate beats Beto by a comfortable margin.

 

[unofan]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

Was there any real "stop the presses!" (do they still say that?) surprise last night?

Mid-term.
The House tends to go against the party of the President. Check.
The Senate doesn't waggle much.
Most media pundits expected a lot of R governors to flop to D (given it was 33/50 not long ago).

Maybe the "blue wall" states putting a lot of state Ds in place?
Florida?
McCaskill in MO?

Honestly, last night felt "to script" in a lot of ways.

Kobach and Walker falling as the Dems go +7 governor's mansions. My personal enthusiasm is tempered because Iowa stayed red outside of the Congressional races, but the Dems still had a good down ballot night nationwide that got overshadowed by the US Senate.

Remember, prior to last night, the GOP was within something like 5 state legislative seats of having total control of enough states to push through their Constitutional Convention. Now they're nowhere close to that

 

[SJHovey]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

It's 26 right now. Will be about 33-35 by the time everything's done.

I'm not sure it's going to hit that high. The undecided races, all extremely close, are 7-7 between the parties at the latest vote totals. Hagedorn (R) is about to win Minnesota's 1st District. The Dems will have to sweep the other 13 to hit 35 if my math is right.

 

[The Sicatoka]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

Yeah but you arent poking us...we just kind of look at you like you are the crazy uncle who had one too many brandies and is now dressing up like Santa even though it isnt Christmas

You responded, so, yes, I poked.

And I don't wear red, or maroon.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

Was there any real "stop the presses!" (do they still say that?) surprise last night?

Mid-term.
The House tends to go against the party of the President. Check.
The Senate doesn't waggle much.
Most media pundits expected a lot of R governors to flop to D (given it was 33/50 not long ago).

Maybe the "blue wall" states putting a lot of state Ds in place?
Florida?
McCaskill in MO?

Honestly, last night felt "to script" in a lot of ways.

Agree to some extent, but it was a weird election. Dems pick up House seats in....Oklahoma? Kansas?? South Carolina??? Didn't see that coming.
But to the overall point states all retreated to their partisan leans for the most part. Dems cleaned up in House races in NY, NJ, PA and VA. GOP killed it in red state Senate seats.

Biggest surprise: OK and SC house seat pickups. On nobody's radar, even in the deepest depths of daily kos or Democracy Now websites.

Biggest disappointment: Florida hands down.

Lesson for 2020: Dems won up and down the ballot in WI, MI, and PA for statewide races. That's a good sign because lose those 3 states and Chump is doomed for re-election. Florida and Ohio are disturbing however, and in FL's case the Dems need to rebuild that useless state party from the ground up because whatever they've been doing the last 20 years ain't working.

Under the radar: The war against gerrymandering just won several important battles. MI passed referendum for independent commission drawing lines. Dems retained state supreme court advantage in North Carolina, which means Pennsylvania style lawsuit to redraw lines had better be in the works.

TBD: Will be awhile before we know how many CA GOP congresscritters went down. Simena and Tester races still up in the air as well although I've read some blurbs that the outstanding vote in MT should come in mostly for Tester.

Overall I'd give his night a B, with the Florida debacle keeping it from a higher grade.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!

So in the US House races, Iowa went about +50k for the Dems. In the governor's race, it was +40k for the GOP. I really don't understand those 90,000 people.

I voted for different sides on house/senate/state officials in Minnesota...I couldn't go full blue after never voting blue in my life...