ericredaxe
Veteran
Here is an article with some historical stats which seem to be accurate...
Since 1946 the median midterm loss is 22 seats.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/9/15550314/2018-elections-midterms-democrats-chances-house
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2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
- Thread starter Handyman
- Start date
Here is an article with some historical stats which seem to be accurate...
Since 1946 the median midterm loss is 22 seats.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/9/15550314/2018-elections-midterms-democrats-chances-house
FlagDUDE08
Banned
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
You know what's sad? Sure the house flips, but CNN's still whining about it.
You know what's sad? Sure the house flips, but CNN's still whining about it.
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
Wow, when I went to bed last night, MI-8 looked like a recount, but as of this morning Slotkin must've pulled a bunch of votes in East Lansing, because she's won by 4 points and over 12,000 votes!
Bye bye, Mikey.
Wow, when I went to bed last night, MI-8 looked like a recount, but as of this morning Slotkin must've pulled a bunch of votes in East Lansing, because she's won by 4 points and over 12,000 votes!
Bye bye, Mikey.
Spartanforlife4
Generic Catchy Message
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
MI 8 and 11 both flipped going +20 D compared to 2016. Even though Upton ended up winning MI 6, that one saw Dems increase +18.
MI 8 and 11 both flipped going +20 D compared to 2016. Even though Upton ended up winning MI 6, that one saw Dems increase +18.
The Sicatoka
Kicizapi Cetan
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
https://www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2018/11/05/five_facts_midterm_elections_110897.html
https://www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2018/11/05/five_facts_midterm_elections_110897.html
bronconick
Yep, still here
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
The three states that pushed Trump across the line in 2016 elected Democratic Senators and Governors. On the other hand, the Senate is going to be a long term GOP hold until progressive people stop all moving to about a dozen states
The three states that pushed Trump across the line in 2016 elected Democratic Senators and Governors. On the other hand, the Senate is going to be a long term GOP hold until progressive people stop all moving to about a dozen states
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
Well that will also depend who is up. If a bunch of GOPers are up in 2020 it could flip if the Dems take back the WH.
Well that will also depend who is up. If a bunch of GOPers are up in 2020 it could flip if the Dems take back the WH.
unofan
Well-known member
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
The map in 2020 is about the opposite of this year's, I think the Dems are only defending 12? out of 33 seats. The problem is a lot of them are in solid red states, there aren't a lot of places you look at and think "yep, that'll flip."
The map in 2020 is about the opposite of this year's, I think the Dems are only defending 12? out of 33 seats. The problem is a lot of them are in solid red states, there aren't a lot of places you look at and think "yep, that'll flip."
Spartanforlife4
Generic Catchy Message
Saw a very foreboding tweet a few months back that said with projected demographic trends, by 2040 30% of the population could be in control of 70% of the Senate. And that 30% is gonna be old white People.
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
I'm ready for a **** ton of outside money to be spent on the Maine 2020 senate race
I'm ready for a **** ton of outside money to be spent on the Maine 2020 senate race
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
Arizona they might not know til tomorrow. Lots of votes left especially in Maricopa County so both sides are going to be sweating a while on that one.
Yeah it wont be easy, but if Trump is polling at 41% there is always a chance.
Arizona they might not know til tomorrow. Lots of votes left especially in Maricopa County so both sides are going to be sweating a while on that one.
Yeah it wont be easy, but if Trump is polling at 41% there is always a chance.
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
538 had a couple interesting demographic points in their live blog last night. When looking at race and gender, the ONLY group that broke R was white men, white women were 49D-48R. When looking at race and age 2 groups went R, whites 45-64 and white 65+, every other group went D.
538 had a couple interesting demographic points in their live blog last night. When looking at race and gender, the ONLY group that broke R was white men, white women were 49D-48R. When looking at race and age 2 groups went R, whites 45-64 and white 65+, every other group went D.
If Collins runs for re-election she wins easily. If she doesn’t, I think Dems have around a 90% chance of taking it if they nominate a moderate.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
Biggest problem now is Mitch is going to run a Judge factory for 2 years and in 2020 if the Dems don't finally get the wave and the Red still controls the Senate you'll have another Obama situation where nothing will get done cause Mitch will obstruct everything again and you'll have a Democrat spending all his capital on marginal Health Care legislation and fixing the economic disaster left by Trump.
Rinse and Repeat.
Biggest problem now is Mitch is going to run a Judge factory for 2 years and in 2020 if the Dems don't finally get the wave and the Red still controls the Senate you'll have another Obama situation where nothing will get done cause Mitch will obstruct everything again and you'll have a Democrat spending all his capital on marginal Health Care legislation and fixing the economic disaster left by Trump.
Rinse and Repeat.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
The Senate Democrats have been over performing the partisan makeup of the states just to occasionally be competitive. Those red state moderates just got wiped out in a best case scenario political environment. I can't help but think the Republicans essentially own the Senate now, and with it, the federal judiciary.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
I dont think the Dems will half *** Health Care again. Despite the Rs ginning up hate on Immigration and trying everything they can to make that the central issue Health Care *ahem* trumped all. Even the economy being in good shape couldnt help them because of their stance on Health Care. The fact that the Rs were trying to pretend they wanted to protect pre-existing conditions the last two weeks means even the GOP realizes this is their big Achilles Heel right now.
Even in Red States people want Health Care, they want expanded coverage, they want pre-existing conditions and they want to spend less money. The Dems have the numbers to show that, and if they take back power they will definitely use that.
As was said last night, the first thing Pelosi should do is put a bill out there to "fix" ObamaCare amongst other things. Nothing is going to pass anyways but the best way to NOT be called an obstructionist is to put out solutions and force THEM to say no. Spend the next two years making the GOP look bad on health care.
I dont think the Dems will half *** Health Care again. Despite the Rs ginning up hate on Immigration and trying everything they can to make that the central issue Health Care *ahem* trumped all. Even the economy being in good shape couldnt help them because of their stance on Health Care. The fact that the Rs were trying to pretend they wanted to protect pre-existing conditions the last two weeks means even the GOP realizes this is their big Achilles Heel right now.
Even in Red States people want Health Care, they want expanded coverage, they want pre-existing conditions and they want to spend less money. The Dems have the numbers to show that, and if they take back power they will definitely use that.
As was said last night, the first thing Pelosi should do is put a bill out there to "fix" ObamaCare amongst other things. Nothing is going to pass anyways but the best way to NOT be called an obstructionist is to put out solutions and force THEM to say no. Spend the next two years making the GOP look bad on health care.