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2017 Pairwise thread

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

Today's games didn't close any possibilities, other than the obvious for Michigan and Michigan State. But, Air Force and BC's at-large scenarios became highly restricted--from 29% with a win for Air Force to <1%, and from 22% with a win for BC to 2%.
 
Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

Jim, I think I count only 6144 scenarios left.

4 x 4 x 4 x 4 x 2 x 4 x 3 where the last (x 3) is for the NCHC 3rd place game. Is that correct? And, that doesn't seem nearly as impossible to wade through.
 
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Numbers said:
Jim, I think I count only 6144 scenarios left.

4 x 4 x 4 x 4 x 2 x 4 x 3 where the last (x 3) is for the NCHC 3rd place game. Is that correct? And, that doesn't seem nearly as impossible to wade through.
Click to expand...

I think of there as being 17 games left, 16 of which have 2 possible outcomes and 1 of which has 3 possible outcomes. Or 2^16 * 3 = 196608.
 
Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

To elaborate on the Air Force situation a little here....

The scenarios where they qualify yet as an at-large are exactly as Jim linked, and then these adjustments also work:

It doesn't seem to matter who wins WCHA.
Either Ohio State or Penn State can win Big 10.

But, that's it. AFA has to pass NoDak in RPI, and it's so tight that Minnesota or Wisconsin winning a game raises NoDak's RPI too much or lowers AF's RPI too much.

ECAC and HE have to go exactly the way he wrote.
 
Numbers said:
To elaborate on the Air Force situation a little here....

The scenarios where they qualify yet as an at-large are exactly as Jim linked, and then these adjustments also work:

It doesn't seem to matter who wins WCHA.
Either Ohio State or Penn State can win Big 10.

But, that's it. AFA has to pass NoDak in RPI, and it's so tight that Minnesota or Wisconsin winning a game raises NoDak's RPI too much or lowers AF's RPI too much.

ECAC and HE have to go exactly the way he wrote.
Click to expand...

Update - You're right. Though they can reach #14 in PWR in 23 of the 190,000 scenarios, they only seem to make the tournament in 4 of those.
 
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

LTI Alum said:
Excellent! Thanks. Just 1 game left and anywhere from a 1 to a 3 seed.
Click to expand...
Also looks to me like if Denver wins in the 3ed place game, they are the overall #1 but if Duluth wins and Denver loses, Duluth will be instead.
I'm also thinking Wisconsin has a good chance at the auto bid because they are reasonably rested.
 
Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

manurespreader said:
Also looks to me like if Denver wins in the 3ed place game, they are the overall #1 but if Duluth wins and Denver loses, Duluth will be instead.
I'm also thinking Wisconsin has a good chance at the auto bid because they are reasonably rested.
Click to expand...

I see you are right, that Denver and Duluth are really very close in RPI today. Is it the case that Western Michigan has to win to stay in the #1 tier? Or else idle Minnesota slides back in?

As an aside, I am thinking that if Denver and Duluth both lose, that Harvard can win and still not go higher than its PWR #3 overall. But it could perhaps pick up more than half the first place poll votes, neither here nor there.
 
manurespreader said:
Also looks to me like if Denver wins in the 3ed place game, they are the overall #1 but if Duluth wins and Denver loses, Duluth will be instead.
I'm also thinking Wisconsin has a good chance at the auto bid because they are reasonably rested.
Click to expand...

DU should tank to stay out of Fargo, that's a death match.

r
 
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