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2017 Pairwise thread

Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

Live Blogging Sun night:
As of 6:33 CDT...
WMU is losing, so they would fall to 6th, with Minnesota jumping to 4th.
Q-pac leads St Lawrence, which is largely meaningless, since either will need to win ECAC to make the tourney anyway
The other games are tied.
 
Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

LordofBrewtown said:
Wasn't Cinci going to be problematic no matter what? I actually think that Western, Ohio St and Notre Dame is about as good as that site can hope for
Click to expand...

Better yet, Bowling Green wins and joins them. Ohio State would have to move up to at least 12 for that to happen, though.
 
Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

Air Force can get in without the auto bid. With the bid they can finish as high as a 3-seed.
UMD can still be #1 overall. I can't get Harvard past Denver (.0004 RPI) so their ceiling looks to be #2.
Union can be #4 overall.
Wisconsin needs the autobid; neither OSU or PSU do.
 
Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

Air Force gets in with a semi-final win, it appears, if BC does not win the HE, and if either OSU or PSU loses on Thursday at the Joe.

For NoDak to miss, they have to lose twice, BC has to win HE, and the Big 10 results have to be just enough to get PSU and OSU past NoDak on on RPI (one way is for OSU to win the tourney over Minnesota who beat PSU).

#4 overall order:
1- Western Michigan
2- BU
3- Minnesota

In other words, if WMU wins out, its theirs. Next, if BU wins out its theirs. Next, Minn. After that, I assume Union, but I don't know about if Union needs WMU to lose in semis, or just finals......Answer: Union can get it with WMU winning its semi, but it depends on the right other results. For example, NoDak would have to beat UMD in the NCHC 3rd place game.
 
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Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

And, for those wondering about the 4 team HE pileup in the 2nd and 3rd bands....

The only relief is from one of 2 things. Either BU gets the #4 overall, or ....
2 of these 3 happen: Cornell wins its ECAC semi; Air Force wins AHA; Either PSU or OSU wins 2 (+) games.
 
Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

Numbers said:
And, for those wondering about the 4 team HE pileup in the 2nd and 3rd bands....

The only relief is from one of 2 things. Either BU gets the #4 overall, or ....
2 of these 3 happen: Cornell wins its ECAC semi; Air Force wins AHA; Either PSU or OSU wins 2 (+) games.
Click to expand...

Would it literally take no possible combinations of an OOC first round game for the committee to pair conference teams in the opening round?
 
Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

brassbonanza said:
Would it literally take no possible combinations of an OOC first round game for the committee to pair conference teams in the opening round?
Click to expand...

Correct. As far as we know, the committee AVOIDS, for example, HE vs HE, in the first round AT ALL COSTS. The only thing which would disrupt that would be, for example, 5 HE in the 2nd and 3rd bands. In that case, the only way to avoid such a matchup would be to switch bands, and that's even more anathema to the committee.
 
Numbers said:
And, for those wondering about the 4 team HE pileup in the 2nd and 3rd bands....

The only relief is from one of 2 things. Either BU gets the #4 overall, or ....
2 of these 3 happen: Cornell wins its ECAC semi; Air Force wins AHA; Either PSU or OSU wins 2 (+) games.
Click to expand...

Lowell can also reach #4 overall
 
Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

I'm struggling a bit to duplicate some of CHN's possibilities, which means one of us is doing something wrong. Anyone stumble across the scenario that lets Western Michigan jump ahead of Harvard (and/or Duluth) for a #2 or #3 ranking?
 
Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

Patronick said:
Lowell can also reach #4 overall
Click to expand...

Technically possible since CHN Probability Matrix gives Lowell 0.8% chance of getting a 4th but extremely unlikely. The following scenario where BU, Minnesota, Western Michigan (loses 2 games), and Union all lose. UML is still in 5th, but only by 0.0001 RPI. You can tinker and I'm sure find how UML makes up that small deficit, but I wouldn't place any bets on this.

http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/?uniq=pwp_58c6b44dadeb5
 
Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

JimDahl said:
I'm struggling a bit to duplicate some of CHN's possibilities, which means one of us is doing something wrong. Anyone stumble across the scenario that lets Western Michigan jump ahead of Harvard (and/or Duluth) for a #2 or #3 ranking?
Click to expand...

I can't get to work, either. I looked at Harvard's schedule, and chose everyone on their schedule to lose, which should decrease their RPI by the limit, and I did the same for Western's schedule, and I can't get WMU any close than .003 in RPI.

And, as far as I can see, WMU can't change the ComOpp part of either comparison.
 
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Numbers said:
I can't get to work, either. I looked at Harvard's schedule, and chose everyone on their schedule to lose, which should decrease their RPI by the limit, and I did the same for Western's schedule, and I can't get WMU any close than .003 in RPI.
Click to expand...

I also don't see NoDak reaching #4 or #5. I hate going live with results that don't match other published results. I'll try reaching out to CHN and see if they have insight.
 
Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

From Jayson Moy:

Here’s what I believe after this weekend’s action and by playing around with the PairWise Predictor.

In:

Big 10 – Minnesota

ECAC – Harvard, Union

Hockey East – Lowell, BU

NCHC – Denver, UMD, Western Michigan

WCHA – Winner of Bowling Green/Michigan Tech

That makes nine teams in, leaving seven spots left.

There are 15 teams for those seven spots

Atlantic Hockey – Canisius, Air Force, Army, Robert Morris

Big 10 – Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State

ECAC – Cornell, Quinnipiac

Hockey East – BC, Notre Dame, Providence

NCHC – North Dakota

Teams that need to win its Championship in order to get in (seven):

Atlantic Hockey – Canisius, Army, Robert Morris

Big 10 – Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State

ECAC – Quinnipiac

Teams that can still get in at-large (eight):

Atlantic Hockey – Air Force (How? All top seeds win, except that one of Penn State or Ohio State must lose on Thursday and Air Force must win on Friday)

Big 10 – Ohio State, Penn State

ECAC – Cornell

Hockey East – BC, Notre Dame, Providence

NCHC – North Dakota
Click to expand...

http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2017/03/13/what-i-believe-monday-edition/
 
Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

Numbers said:
I can't get to work, either. I looked at Harvard's schedule, and chose everyone on their schedule to lose, which should decrease their RPI by the limit, and I did the same for Western's schedule, and I can't get WMU any close than .003 in RPI.

And, as far as I can see, WMU can't change the ComOpp part of either comparison.
Click to expand...

I used the same line of thinking as you did and can't get WMU anywhere near to Harvard. I was equally skeptical of the 1% chance CHN gave Harvard to get the #1 overall seed but figured it out on the first try. http://pwp.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/?uniq=pwp_58c6bc738c531
 
Re: 2017 Pairwise thread

JimDahl said:
I also don't see NoDak reaching #4 or #5. I hate going live with results that don't match other published results. I'll try reaching out to CHN and see if they have insight.
Click to expand...

Also true to me. I have a hard time finding a way for them past BU, WMU or UMinn
 
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