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2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

Fishman'81 said:
This, coming from a man who has admonished me on numerous occasions that "This is how D-3 does it, and we just have to live with it."

Bracket integrity and accurate seeding have never seemed to concern the committee very much. There's no justifying that, aside from invoking the distance-rule and the no-first-round-interconference thing -both of which are arbitrary constructs- and neither of which goes to actual statistical merit.

But, one thing that I just have to point-out is this: if you throw out the Salem and Platty AQ's, the KRACH predicted the field perfectly. ;)
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I am aware of the procedures. The selection of the field followed the NCAA metrics exactly. I'm only observing that there were two possible brackets that fit the guidelines that the committee operates with. One of them would have byes for 3 East teams and 1 West team, while the other would have byes for 4 West teams, including two with metrics that are significantly lower than the 3 teams that would have earned byes under the other scenario.

My comments about the apparent seeding of Norwich not #1 was more tongue-in-cheek than anything else, although I am trying to figure out how the events of Saturday and Sunday would have jumped Trinity past Hobart in the rankings. I think that Hobart should have been seeded above Trinity.

It is also interesting to note that the women's tournament with 4 east teams and 4 west teams does have a flight with two inter-regional quarterfinal games and the Men's tournament has no inter-regional quarterfinals scheduled.
 
NUProf said:
I am aware of the procedures. The selection of the field followed the NCAA metrics exactly. I'm only observing that there were two possible brackets that fit the guidelines that the committee operates with. One of them would have byes for 3 East teams and 1 West team, while the other would have byes for 4 West teams, including two with metrics that are significantly lower than the 3 teams that would have earned byes under the other scenario.

My comments about the apparent seeding of Norwich not #1 was more tongue-in-cheek than anything else, although I am trying to figure out how the events of Saturday and Sunday would have jumped Trinity past Hobart in the rankings. I think that Hobart should have been seeded above Trinity.

It is also interesting to note that the women's tournament with 4 east teams and 4 west teams does have a flight with two inter-regional quarterfinal games and the Men's tournament has no inter-regional quarterfinals scheduled.
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Because if Adrian played St. Thomas, Gustavus or River Falls it would have required a flight. So to maintain seeds best as possible St. Thomas flew and Adrian stays on ground. Pretty obvious.
 
Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

Sir Nubs said:
Because if Adrian played St. Thomas, Gustavus or River Falls it would have required a flight. So to maintain seeds best as possible St. Thomas flew and Adrian stays on ground. Pretty obvious.
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Doesn't seem to be a priority in other brackets :)
 
Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

PSUChamps2001 said:
Adrians .741 WIN% is pretty statistically close to everyone but Endicott (.846).

Adrian has THE HIGHEST SoS at .541 which is statistically higher than your said Eastern screwed teams. ANYONE who has followed the rankings know how much SOS plays a role.

Augsburg has the same WIN, the HIGHEST RNK, and the lowest SOS, but like Salem St has no where to go in the first round or you would be screwing the higher Western team because Augsburg deserved to be in the first round? Makes no sense there either. The math doesn't work. The Western teams are ahead for a reason.
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Actually Trinity has the higher SOS at .543, and a .650 RNK over 10 games against ranked teams. Your SOS weighting only goes so far, given that Augsburg is .002 from being the first team in 20 years to make the bracket with an SOS under .500.

The "reason" is not that the 4 Western teams are "better" than all the East teams. The "reason" is to create a bracket designed to seed the 8 East teams as though they were a separate bracket, and do the same with the West teams. This creates a scenario where they hope to have the top two teams from each region go to Utica.
 
NUProf said:
I am aware of the procedures. The selection of the field followed the NCAA metrics exactly. I'm only observing that there were two possible brackets that fit the guidelines that the committee operates with. One of them would have byes for 3 East teams and 1 West team, while the other would have byes for 4 West teams, including two with metrics that are significantly lower than the 3 teams that would have earned byes under the other scenario.

My comments about the apparent seeding of Norwich not #1 was more tongue-in-cheek than anything else, although I am trying to figure out how the events of Saturday and Sunday would have jumped Trinity past Hobart in the rankings. I think that Hobart should have been seeded above Trinity.

It is also interesting to note that the women's tournament with 4 east teams and 4 west teams does have a flight with two inter-regional quarterfinal games and the Men's tournament has no inter-regional quarterfinals scheduled.
Click to expand...

WIN
TRIN .700
HOBR .786

RNK
TRIN .650
HOBR .375

SOS
TRIN .534
HOBR .528

COP
TRIN 1.00
HOBR 1.00

H2H
.500 0-0-1

Secondary

WIN
TRIN .722 (closer)
HOBR .786

Last 25
TRIN 7-0-0
HOBR 5-1-1

Kinda easy
 
peddler said:
Actually Trinity has the higher SOS at .543, and a .650 RNK over 10 games against ranked teams. Your SOS weighting only goes so far, given that Augsburg is .002 from being the first team in 20 years to make the bracket with an SOS under .500.

The "reason" is not that the 4 Western teams are "better" than all the East teams. The "reason" is to create a bracket designed to seed the 8 East teams as though they were a separate bracket, and do the same with the West teams. This creates a scenario where they hope to have the top two teams from each region go to Utica.
Click to expand...

Ummm no

Dated 3/6/17 at 6:13am Adrian is .541
Dated 3/6/17 at 6:14am Trinity is .534

I don't care about Augsburg. They are the lucky beneficiary of the Top 3 Western teams being ranked higher and travel concerns. Should we let Salem St slide into Norwich on a bye? No we would have them play a lower seed, Augsburg doesn't have that option.
 
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Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

I think that a difference of 0.006 in SOS is pretty meaningless, and Hobart's Winning percentage is a pretty big advantage, especially when you consider their SOS metrics are very close. I still don't buy it, especially since the metrics don't really change that much over the last three weeks.

Of course it is what it is, but I still find it hard to see how Trin-Trin would have jumped over 5 teams in the last week.

Despite my jokes about Norwich not being seeded number 1 because they aren't playing Trinity, I know the bracket was set up so there would be 1E - 2W and 1W - 2E semifinals if favorites win out.
 
NUProf said:
I think that a difference of 0.006 in SOS is pretty meaningless, and Hobart's Winning percentage is a pretty big advantage, especially when you consider their SOS metrics are very close. I still don't buy it, especially since the metrics don't really change that much over the last three weeks.

Of course it is what it is, but I still find it hard to see how Trin-Trin would have jumped over 5 teams in the last week.

Despite my jokes about Norwich not being seeded number 1 because they aren't playing Trinity, I know the bracket was set up so there would be 1E - 2W and 1W - 2E semifinals if favorites win out.
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Maybe its the makeup call from 3 years ago when TrinTrin went from #1 to adios.
 
Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

norm1909 said:
It is quite apparent that the bracket was seeded so Norwich & Oswego will get to play each other after being denied the opportunity in the Northfield Bank Tournament. :p
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:eek: I was at the Norwich tourney ans Oswego didnt deserve to play in the championship game,but I hear ya:cool:
 
Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

NUProf said:
I think that a difference of 0.006 in SOS is pretty meaningless, and Hobart's Winning percentage is a pretty big advantage, especially when you consider their SOS metrics are very close. I still don't buy it, especially since the metrics don't really change that much over the last three weeks.

Of course it is what it is, but I still find it hard to see how Trin-Trin would have jumped over 5 teams in the last week.

Despite my jokes about Norwich not being seeded number 1 because they aren't playing Trinity, I know the bracket was set up so there would be 1E - 2W and 1W - 2E semifinals if favorites win out.
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They jumped because they were winning games and the other teams were not. Teams that they played earlier also have moved into the ranking which increased their numbers as well. Really simple.
 
NUProf said:
Doesn't seem to be a priority in other brackets :)
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Actually it was. Norwich follows a path of playing 8 East and 4 East to get to Utica, just like any tournament format would set up that is seeded. Nowhere in NCAA handbook does it say a 1 seed gets a bye. This year's tournament bracket is one of best ever as far as matching people against the corresponding seed in the early rounds. The committee did a great job.
 
Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

Sir Nubs said:
Actually it was. Norwich follows a path of playing 8 East and 4 East to get to Utica, just like any tournament format would set up that is seeded. Nowhere in NCAA handbook does it say a 1 seed gets a bye. This year's tournament bracket is one of best ever as far as matching people against the corresponding seed in the early rounds. The committee did a great job.
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Within regions it is fine, but it's the issue of having the West overrepresented with the byes and the number of spots in Utica.

Having 4 pods of three teams including an Oswego/Adrian/Hobart pod would have balanced it better. The west would be guaranteed 1 spot in Utica, the east would be guaranteed 2 spots, and one spot would be up for grabs.

It's not a big deal for Norwich to have to play Salem State - in fact, having a bye when you are playing a team that played the week before can be a disadvantage. I just don't like the optics which favor the so-called West.
 
Re: 2017 NCAA tournament selection thread

Lots of talk about Norwich getting hosed by not getting a bye. I think they did get a bye, just like the New England Patriots got a bye when the Houston Texans came to Foxborough. Their quarterfinal may pit them against Oswego. That will be a tough game, but what alternative is there?

Because of mileage restrictions, SNC and Stevens Point are the only western teams that can travel to Adrian. Augsburg can ONLY travel to SNC or Stevens Point in the first two rounds (Adrian is 627 miles from Augsburg). So you can give Augsburg a first round game against Stevens Point and then have SNC waiting for the winner in the quarter; however, that scenario could pit the #1 and #2 teams in the west in a quarter final matchup. Not good to eliminate one of those in the quarters.

Has anyone provided a sample bracket using the same 12 teams that gives Norwich a bye; and, sticks to the NCAA mileage requirements through the first two rounds without SNC and Stevens Point both not having an opportunity to go to Utica? I'm curious if anyone can come up with such a scenario.
 
NUProf said:
Within regions it is fine, but it's the issue of having the West overrepresented with the byes and the number of spots in Utica.

Having 4 pods of three teams including an Oswego/Adrian/Hobart pod would have balanced it better. The west would be guaranteed 1 spot in Utica, the east would be guaranteed 2 spots, and one spot would be up for grabs.

It's not a big deal for Norwich to have to play Salem State - in fact, having a bye when you are playing a team that played the week before can be a disadvantage. I just don't like the optics which favor the so-called West.
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How is having the top two seeds in a region meeting in the quarterfinals balanced? It simply isn't. If a scenario existed where Norwich was playing the 2nd Eastern team in the quarterfinals, in this case Trinity, you'd find that the current bracket as it exists is a much more palatable option.
 
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