2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

Well, given your AIC comparison earlier... are the Browns, Lions, Dolphins and Bills just unlucky?

Have the Browns, Lions, Dolphins, and Bills ever made the NFL Playoffs?

Everyone in every league in every sport has a chance at the beginning of their season. A new season is an open book with unwritten possibilities. But the point of the season is to find who's the best, and at the most basic level a playoff system that rewards 50th percentile teams is going to include teams that are simply not as deserving as the 66th or 75th percentile teams.

I understand that everyone has a "chance." My point is whether or not they have a "legit" chance. The NFL has proven that any team at the beginning of the season has a legit chance at making the playoffs. The same cannot be said for the NCAA Tournament. Again, we'll just have to just agree to disagree here.

I think it's fair to wonder why, other than entertainment value, we would bother to reward 50th percentile teams. At least when that happens in the World Cup, European Soccer championships or the Champions League (1/2 of the teams advancing from group stages to knockout rounds), it's at a group stage where all the teams have had to win something to get there in the first place.

I think when you combine entertainment value with parity you have your answer as for why. In today's NFL, Arizona could easily make it to the Super Bowl. The same could be said for Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Hell, if it wasn't for an awful hypothetical matchup, Chicago has the talent to make some noise.

I'm looking into this right now actually. The current playoffs started following the 1990 season, so including this year there's 24 years of regular seasons to dissect (worth keeping in mind, half of that time we had 6 divisions and the league slowly built from 28 to 32 teams over that span).

I think 9-7 or worse being the measuring stick for mediocrity is fair, and I'd also look at teams with negative point differentials. In either case, I don't think there's any point in arguing that adding 7/8 seeds to each conference would dramatically increase the number of mediocre teams (by either metric). In fact, I'm still in the early 90s and I've already seen a 6-10 team that would've snuck in as an 8 seed.

I believe we were talking about mediocre actual division champions vs. mediocre actual wild card teams since 1990. Clearly, the large majority of hypothetical 7/8 seeds in that time frame would be considered "mediocre."

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

Since 1990:

Mediocre Division Champions:
1990 Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)
1999 Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
2002 New York Jets (9-7)
2004 Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
2006 Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
2007 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
2008 Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
2008 San Diego Chargers (8-8)
2010 Seattle Seahawks (7-9)
2011 New York Giants (9-7)
2011 Denver Broncos (8-8)
2013 Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)

Mediocre Wild Card Teams:
1990 New Orleans Saints (8-8)
1990 Houston Oilers (9-7)
1991 Oakland Raiders (9-7)
1991 New York Jets (8-8)
1992 Washington Redskins (9-7)
1993 Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
1993 Denver Broncos (9-7)
1993 Minnesota Vikings (9-7)
1993 Green Bay Packers (9-7)
1994 Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)
1994 Green Bay Packers (9-7)
1994 Detroit Lions (9-7)
1994 Chicago Bears (9-7)
1995 Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
1995 Miami Dolphins (9-7)
1995 San Diego Chargers (9-7)
1995 Atlanta Falcons (9-7)
1996 Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
1996 Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7)
1996 Minnesota Vikings (9-7)
1997 Miami Dolphins (9-7)
1997 Minnesota Vikings (9-7)
1997 Detroit Lions (9-7)
1998 New England Patriots (9-7)
1998 Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
1999 Miami Dolphins (9-7)
1999 Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
1999 Detroit Lions (8-8)
2001 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
2002 Cleveland Browns (9-7)
2004 Minnesota Vikings (8-8)
2004 St. Louis Rams (8-8)
2006 Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)
2006 Dallas Cowboys (9-7)
2006 New York Giants (8-8)
2007 Washington Redskins (9-7)
2009 New York Jets (9-7)
2009 Baltimore Ravens (9-7)
2011 Cincinnati Bengals (9-7)
2013 San Diego Chargers (9-7)

Since the change to 4 divisions in each conference, there have been similar amounts of "mediocre" division winners (10) compared to "mediocre" wild cards (11). Of course, my main point is to look at the success of these "mediocre" teams, and why having two extra "mediocre" teams would result in a better playoffs.

 

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Re: 2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

The numbers I've come up with:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Au_AR8CBELzGdEF6US1ZUHhxZS1iUXAwY0poWkhZRUE&usp=sharing

I did a copy-paste from Excel, so the formulas don't show up in the Google doc, you'll have to trust my numbers.

The most telling number to me is the noticeable drop-off in quality from the wild cards to the theoretical 7/8 seeds. While I'm admittedly not taking strength of schedule into account, in the current playoff format you stand a nearly 80% chance of the 7/8 seed team having a record no better than 9-7. In other words: only 1/5 of the teams that could be a 7/8 seed in a 16 team field would have a decent record.

Even worse, IMO, is the not insignificant likelihood (29.2%) that the 7/8 seed would have a negative point differential. While that number is a significant improvement from the 45.8% likelihood in the 6-division format, that's still not a good indicator of quality in the 7/8 seeds, and I'd hardly think it's worth punishing the best teams in the league by adding more teams into the mix.

 

[mookie1995]

So, her point about knowing Russian foreign policy because you can see Russia from Alaska is accurate? Cause that was her point.

Her state shared a border with Canada too. AK has to be aware of foreign policy 24/7, no?

 

[mookie1995]

Re: 2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

On the face of it 8 games this weekend sounds ok, but I like that I can watch every playoff game -- how are we going to stage 8 games so that happens? (West coast teams host at 6p local time?? -- noon/3p/6p/9p both days?)

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

On the face of it 8 games this weekend sounds ok, but I like that I can watch every playoff game -- how are we going to stage 8 games so that happens? (West coast teams host at 6p local time?? -- noon/3p/6p/9p both days?)

That's a really good point. Given that the NFL doesn't like to have games overlap in the playoffs, it would be tricky to follow a noon/3/6/9 time plan, as any OT or long games could throw that 9pm game off by an hour or two. Perhaps a Friday night game and a Monday night game coupled with three games apiece on Saturday/Sunday? Pick the two most western games for the late games on Saturday/Sunday, with a time schedule similar to Thanksgiving?

Maybe a schedule something along these lines...

Friday Night - 7:30pm Eastern
#8 Baltimore @ #1 Denver

Saturday - 12:00pm Eastern
#7 Green Bay @ #2 Carolina (Or Arizona @ Carolina following the current seeding)

Saturday - 4:00pm Eastern
#5 Kansas City @ #4 Indianapolis

Saturday - 8:00pm Eastern
#6 Arizona @ #3 San Francisco (Or New Orleans @ Philadelphia following the current seeding)

Sunday - 12:00pm Eastern
#7 Pittsburgh @ #2 New England

Sunday - 4:00pm Eastern
#6 San Diego @ #3 Cincinnati

Sunday - 8:00pm Eastern
#8 Chicago @ #1 Seattle

Monday - 7:30pm Eastern
#5 Philadelphia @ #4 New Orleans (Or San Francisco @ Green Bay following the current seeding)

They would probably have to move to a fixed bracket for the playoffs. Friday/Saturday winners play the following Saturday. Sunday/Monday winners play the following Sunday. Fixed Brackets also ensure that the #1 seed would get an extra day of rest over the 4/5 winner if the #1 seed were to advance.

It's a tricky situation for sure to figure out the schedule. However, I think something creative would work. I know I'd be glued to the TV all weekend.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: 2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

That's a really good point. Given that the NFL doesn't like to have games overlap in the playoffs, it would be tricky to follow a noon/3/6/9 time plan, as any OT or long games could throw that 9pm game off by an hour or two. Perhaps a Friday night game and a Monday night game coupled with three games apiece on Saturday/Sunday? Pick the two most western games for the late games on Saturday/Sunday, with a time schedule similar to Thanksgiving?

The league wouldn't allow it. People already complain that teams playing Saturday games one week and then next week playing a team that then played on Sunday have an advantage. How do you control for a team playing a Friday game one week and then playing a Monday team the next? The logistics become too much. Either all games are televised on Saturday & Sunday or they're not, once you get to the point of adding two more games that first week.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

The league wouldn't allow it. People already complain that teams playing Saturday games one week and then next week playing a team that then played on Sunday have an advantage. How do you control for a team playing a Friday game one week and then playing a Monday team the next? The logistics become too much. Either all games are televised on Saturday & Sunday or they're not, once you get to the point of adding two more games that first week.

Umm...

They would probably have to move to a fixed bracket for the playoffs. Friday/Saturday winners play the following Saturday. Sunday/Monday winners play the following Sunday. Fixed Brackets also ensure that the #1 seed would get an extra day of rest over the 4/5 winner if the #1 seed were to advance.

Seems like a relatively simple fix, and, as you pointed out, leads to results not all that different from now. Plus, the only day "advantage" given now would be to the #1 seeds, which I don't think most people would mind.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: 2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

Umm...



Seems like a relatively simple fix, and, as you pointed out, leads to results not all that different from now. Plus, the only day "advantage" given now would be to the #1 seeds, which I don't think most people would mind.

Yeah, I ignored the fixed bracket process because the NFL likes its flexible/biased bracket instead. I forgot to mention that in my last post.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

Yeah, I ignored the fixed bracket process because the NFL likes its flexible/biased bracket instead. I forgot to mention that in my last post.

I think the NFL likes $$ more than a flexible bracket. Or, are you ignoring $$ as well?

 

[St. Clown]

Re: 2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

I think the NFL likes $$ more than a flexible bracket. Or, are you ignoring $$ as well?

No, not at all. I just think there's more money in trying to do as much as they can to ensure the top teams from the two conferences make the Super Bowl. If you end up with a #6 and a #8 team playing the game, you're less likely to get as many people as possible to watch the game. The more they can do to stack that game with the highest ranked teams as possible, the more they can sell it to the networks with the most optimistically forecast viewer figures as possible. With this year's field, I know that I'm much more likely to watch a Seattle/Denver game than I am a San Diego/GB game.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

No, not at all. I just think there's more money in trying to do as much as they can to ensure the top teams from the two conferences make the Super Bowl. If you end up with a #6 and a #8 team playing the game, you're less likely to get as many people as possible to watch the game. The more they can do to stack that game with the highest ranked teams as possible, the more they can sell it to the networks with the most optimistically forecast viewer figures as possible. With this year's field, I know that I'm much more likely to watch a Seattle/Denver game than I am a San Diego/GB game.

The money made from the 4 extra playoff games would likely dwarf the money lost (if any) from a "bad" matchup...especially considering that the Super Bowl is likely to be watched regardless of who is playing.

Are you saying you wouldn't watch the Super Bowl if it was San Diego against Green Bay? My guess is that if you're a football fan, you're watching the Super Bowl regardless of who is playing. And if you're not, you're probably watching the Super Bowl because it has become a quasi-National Holiday.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: 2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

The money made from the 4 extra playoff games would likely dwarf the money lost (if any) from a "bad" matchup...especially considering that the Super Bowl is likely to be watched regardless of who is playing.

Are you saying you wouldn't watch the Super Bowl if it was San Diego against Green Bay? My guess is that if you're a football fan, you're watching the Super Bowl regardless of who is playing. And if you're not, you're probably watching the Super Bowl because it has become a quasi-National Holiday.

I would not watch the Super Bowl if it was San Diego/Green Bay. There have been a few over the years I've not watched because of the match ups. I remember tuning in to catch the last minute of game time for the NYG/Patriots game because I expected the Pats to route the Giants. Clearly, that didn't happen, but the seemingly bad match up caused me not to care about it.

 

[Twitch Boy]

Re: 2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

From noaa.gov, here's two forecasts for Sunday night:

1) Blustery. Very cold. Mostly cloudy. Lows 20 below to 25 below zero. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph after midnight. Wind chills to 50 below zero.

2) Snow likely. Areas of blowing snow. Lows in the teens. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph.

Forecast 1 is for Green Bay. Forecast 2 is for NOME, ALASKA.

Have fun.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

I would not watch the Super Bowl if it was San Diego/Green Bay. There have been a few over the years I've not watched because of the match ups. I remember tuning in to catch the last minute of game time for the NYG/Patriots game because I expected the Pats to route the Giants. Clearly, that didn't happen, but the seemingly bad match up caused me not to care about it.

Fair enough, but you are certainly in the minority...that Super Bowl was the highest watched Super Bowl of all time. At the end of the day, the NFL will make its money regardless of who is in the Super Bowl. Adding 4 more playoff games (featuring the top seeds) would only add a significant chunk of change to the NFL's already deep coffers.

 

[Slap Shot]

Re: 2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

I often agree with you FS23, but I can't be on board with a playoff system that would have allowed this years Bears team in.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

I often agree with you FS23, but I can't be on board with a playoff system that would have allowed this years Bears team in.

Fair enough. However, I would counter that Green Bay is no better than Chicago, and they are in under the current playoff system. That leads me to ask you, what would your proposal look like?

 

[Slap Shot]

Fair enough. However, I would counter that Green Bay is no better than Chicago, and they are in under the current playoff system. That leads me to ask you, what would your proposal look like?

I'm not seeking to change anything, but if I were I would at least seed by record.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: 2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

I'm not seeking to change anything, but if I were I would at least seed by record.

Well, if you can't be on board with a playoff system that allows teams like Green Bay and Chicago in, then how can you be on board with the current playoff system?

I completely agree that seeding needs to be based on record. At the very least, seeded by Conference Record.

 

[Twitch Boy]

Re: 2013 NFL Season. Tebow on the Brady Bunch(en)? Goodell will to all men!

Mike Munchak fired.

ETA: Fun factoid from Reddit: every team that the Jacksonville Jaguars beat this season has now fired their coach.