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2013 NCAA Quarterfinal: North Dakota @ Minnesota

Re: 2013 NCAA Quarterfinal: North Dakota @ Minnesota

First, North Dakota should be thankful to be in the tournament - Wisconsin and Northeastern both finished ahead of them in PWR but the committee went a (VERY) little off the board to put them in because they accounted for their performance in the tournament and wanted a second Western team (which was reasonable). But Wisconsin (and to a much lesser extent Northeastern) fans should be more upset - I mean, Wisconsin beat them 3 out of 5 games this season ....
The committee didn't go off the board. The USCHO PWR just didn't accurately reflect how the committee has been behaving for years now. The posters here who have been following this process for years expected UND to be chosen.

Second, the criteria (love em or not) are relatively clear and ND finished 8th of the 8 teams picked for the tourney and it works out for everyone money wise because 2 teams don't have to fly to maintain the bracket integrity. As I was always told playing and coaching, if you don't want your hands in the fate of someone else, just win. They played very erratically most of the season and put just enough together at the bitter end to get into the tourney. They didn't win consistently enough during the season to justify a higher placement - simple as that.
Yes, we all know UND and the WCHA were treated given the criteria and NCAA policy. But it's not "simple as that" because there's plenty of reason to complain about the criteria and NCAA policy:

(1) The criteria consistently work against the teams in the strongest conference year after year, and the strongest conference happens to be the WCHA right now. Every ranking except for the one the NCAA uses has UND somewhere between 2nd and 5th, not 8th, and has Wisconsin in the top 8. That kind of pattern repeats year after year. And then the fact that pairings end up being based on travel assures that a top seed from the WCHA gets paired with an underrated WCHA team in the quarterfinals. It's now happened three seasons in a row.

(2) The travel funding disparity in the NCAA's treatment of D-I men's and women's hockey permanently regulates the women's tournament to second-class status. NCAA policy is that "revenue-generating" tournaments get a bracket fully seeded with pairings based on limiting intraconference matchups, while all other tournaments get 25-50% seeded and pairings based on limiting travel. I believe D-I college hockey is the ONLY sport where the men get their bracket fully seeded and the women don't. Since the D-I men's hockey tournament is "revenue-generating" and the D-I women's hockey tournament is not, the NCAA would claim it's applying a fair standard and not being discriminatory, but this is nonsense. Men's hockey has had support for decades that women's hockey never had so it's never going to be fair to use a revenue standard to determine the relative travel funding for the two tournaments. You effectively lock in decades of discrimination when you give the D-I men premier status and treat the D-I women's tournament like a D-III tournament. (p.s. Possibly the NCAA would also rationalize the disparity in that the women's tournament is "National Collegiate" and in theory includes D-II programs which don't actually play D-I schedules.)

The NCAA itself initially recognized that it needed to allow some time to allow the women's tournament to grow. The NCAA effectively fully seeded the tournament in the first three seasons from 2005-2007. In 2008, it really pulled the wool over our eyes. The 2008 tournament had two intraconference matchups (one ECAC & one WCHA), but we were told this is what the coaches wanted -- because they thought it was so outrageous that No. 6 Harvard was paired with No. 1 Wisconsin in 2007. Before you knew it, regular intraconference QFs were totally fine, and intra-WCHA matchups became an annual cost-saving tradition.
 
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Re: 2013 NCAA Quarterfinal: North Dakota @ Minnesota

I have to say that I'm not really sure what all of the complaining is about because it appears pretty straightforward to me....

- First, North Dakota should be thankful to be in the tournament - Wisconsin and Northeastern both finished ahead of them in PWR but the committee went a (VERY) little off the board to put them in because they accounted for their performance in the tournament and wanted a second Western team (which was reasonable). But Wisconsin (and to a much lesser extent Northeastern) fans should be more upset - I mean, Wisconsin beat them 3 out of 5 games this season ....

- Second, the criteria (love em or not) are relatively clear and ND finished 8th of the 8 teams picked for the tourney and it works out for everyone money wise because 2 teams don't have to fly to maintain the bracket integrity. As I was always told playing and coaching, if you don't want your hands in the fate of someone else, just win. They played very erratically most of the season and put just enough together at the bitter end to get into the tourney. They didn't win consistently enough during the season to justify a higher placement - simple as that.

OK - go ahead - tell me how stupid I am...


.......Given that UND won over Wisco when it counted, comittee got that order right.
.......The more interesting debate is NE vs UND. NE was on a tear late in the season, and really only lost one key game and it cost them. They went 9-1 down the stretch, with a 3-1 record vs teams in the top 8. UND went 8-1-1 and 1-1 vs top 8 during that same stretch, if you count the Wisco game as vs top 8. Both teams lost their last game in the League championship.

Personally have no problem with them taking a second WCHA team over a third HE team, when it is that close in the comparison. Both teams were in this position due to less than expected performances earlier in the year.

That Wisco fans are upset cause they won 3 of 5 over UND but did not get in is not a fair complaint, given that:
1 - UND beat Wisco when it counted at the end, both teams must have known that if you win your semi and you got a shot, lose your semi, and you are probably done.
2 - Head to Head is only one of four criteria, and Wisco does get a full credit for the 3-2 winning record, but loses ALL other comparisons with UND.
 
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Re: 2013 NCAA Quarterfinal: North Dakota @ Minnesota

They didn't win consistently enough during the season to justify a higher placement - simple as that.
UND's season looks a weak as it does to you because of the five losses to Minnesota. Compare their season to that of a team like BC that is hosting, and what drops UND out of the top tier and into the "thankful to be in" category are those games. North Dakota only lost four times in 2013, and three of those were to UM. It's just a much harder road to get into the tournament, where you can't afford to tie Vermont, go to OT with Maine, and lose to NU down the stretch and still get to host. We understand that UND could have been better in October while Michelle Karvinen was injured and didn't play. The UND staff isn't stupid; they realized back in October that they had to sweep Clarkson (without Karvinen) or they would be in PWR trouble all season long. It's true that they couldn't accomplish that, while BC did defeat the Golden Knights (who happened to be missing two of their top players.)

Minnesota fans can relate, because we've gone through seasons where we have run into a dominant Wisconsin or UMD time and time again. Fans out East tell us, "just win," and then when their team runs into that Badgers or Bulldogs squad, the light bulb goes on and they figure out that maybe it wasn't as easy as it looked from halfway across the country.
 
Re: 2013 NCAA Quarterfinal: North Dakota @ Minnesota

One more thought, I'm not actually seeing considerable "outrage" from Wisconsin or Northeastern supporters anywhere. Wisconsin had a pretty good idea it needed to beat UND to get in, and Northeastern had a pretty good idea it needed to win Hockey East to get in. There's only imagined controversy, and it only exists because some people looked at the USCHO PWR rankings and saw that UND was #10 there.

If you want to see what controversy looks like, look at 2011. This is the least controversial selection process we've had in years.
 
One more thought, I'm not actually seeing considerable "outrage" from Wisconsin or Northeastern supporters anywhere. Wisconsin had a pretty good idea it needed to beat UND to get in, and Northeastern had a pretty good idea it needed to win Hockey East to get in. There's only imagined controversy, and it only exists because some people looked at the USCHO PWR rankings and saw that UND was #10 there.

If you want to see what controversy looks like, look at 2011. This is the least controversial selection process we've had in years.

Well I am the only regular NU poster and I was swallowing a tough loss yesterday. An I upset? Yea little bit the PWR is what we are told determines it and it cost us last year. This year we had to win we didn't but it should've been us or Wisconsin. My biggest problem is that neither Wisconsin or UND really played any strong ooc games. Wisconsin's only tuc games were minny and UND. UND played two tuc games not against Wisconsin or minny and went 1-1 against clarkson at home. We played way more tuc games. I feel the western teams are getting rewarded for scheduling a VERY weak ooc schedule. How many lindenwood games or penn st games did the WCHA play?

NU didn't do enough to get in this year and it was disappointing. But If PWR isn't the factor tell us so we know that it is arbitrary.
 
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Re: 2013 NCAA Quarterfinal: North Dakota @ Minnesota

One more thought, I'm not actually seeing considerable "outrage" from Wisconsin or Northeastern supporters anywhere. Wisconsin had a pretty good idea it needed to beat UND to get in, and Northeastern had a pretty good idea it needed to win Hockey East to get in. There's only imagined controversy, and it only exists because some people looked at the USCHO PWR rankings and saw that UND was #10 there.

If you want to see what controversy looks like, look at 2011. This is the least controversial selection process we've had in years.

The complaints I was referring to were related to UND being seeded 8th and having to play Minnesota again, not NE and Wisonsin comlaining about anything. My only point in bringing NE and Wisconsin up was that North Dakota fans really shouldn't be complaining about seeding given that they barely made the tournament.
 
Re: 2013 NCAA Quarterfinal: North Dakota @ Minnesota

I agree it would be better for the game if the WCHA played a stronger OOC schedule, but the WCHA teams are responding to the bad incentives created by the current system. Don't blame the WCHA teams.

The WCHA teams already play in the toughest conference so they have the strongest overall schedules no matter how weak their OOC schedules are. When they play stronger teams OOC, they generally don't get rewarded in expectation -- if they were to play an evenly matched team, the benefit of a win is less than the detriment of a loss.

For example, UND played a brutal OOC schedule in 2011. UND was well-rewarded for that schedule by KRACH but it if anything was penalized for it in the NCAA selection process, when compared to what you would expect if they had played an all Lindenwood schedule. UND now seems to have settled on playing a couple tough games but not too many tough games, and that seems to about the right mix given the current system.

If we had a better ranking system, it would greatly limit the strategic element of scheduling that leads to more cupcake schedules.

NU didn't do enough to get in this year and it was disappointing. But If PWR isn't the factor tell us so we know that it is arbitrary.

The USCHO women's PWR is a pretty good approximation of the process, and I think I've made it pretty clear in other threads what the differences are between the current USCHO women's PWR and what the committee does in practice. One is to calculate the common opponents like the men do, and I've been saying USCHO should implement this to make the PWR a more accurate reflection of the process. The other is that the women's committee considers weighting the margins in the various criteria within each comparison. That doesn't mean the whole selection process is arbitrary or that the USCHO women's PWR is useless.

In my judgment, the committee has been very predictable in how it has departed from the PWR, and these departures make the process fairer. These departures leave some grey area where the decision is indeed arbitrary -- in particular, when Dartmouth was picked over Clarkson in 2008 due to a H2H advantage despite trailing by a tiny margin in the other three criteria, what exactly is a "tiny" margin and if Clarkson had been slightly better in each criteria, at what point does the decision become basically a coin flip? But my opinion is that this tiny possibility of arbitrary decisions is a lesser evil than committing to follow the PWR rankings rigidly like the men -- where you end up with comparisons decided by 10000ths of an RPI point even when one team has a large advantage in 2 or the other 3 criteria.
 
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Re: 2013 NCAA Quarterfinal: North Dakota @ Minnesota

Sorry posting on an iPhone. Had to fix a few auto corrects and it wasn't typing well.
 
Re: 2013 NCAA Quarterfinal: North Dakota @ Minnesota

Sorry posting on an iPhone. Had to fix a few auto corrects and it wasn't typing well.

Everyone knew what you meant. Just having some fun with it. It was too inviting to pass up. Good thing TTT is in London/Florence. Otherwise, he would be all over that.
 
Re: 2013 NCAA Quarterfinal: North Dakota @ Minnesota

In my judgment, the committee has been very predictable in how it has departed from the PWR, and these departures make the process fairer... But my opinion is that this tiny possibility of arbitrary decisions is a lesser evil than committing to follow the PWR rankings rigidly like the men -- where you end up with comparisons decided by 10000ths of an RPI point even when one team has a large advantage in 2 or the other 3 criteria.
I should explain one other advantage of the current system alluded to in the last sentence: the way the committee operates makes it much more likely that changes in the rankings are intuitive. Years ago I used to worry about rounding error in calculating possible scenarios in the evolution of the RPI, and now I know none of that is likely to matter.

When looking at UND-Wisconsin this last weekend, it was easy to look at the teams, see that they were really close, and guess that whoever won that last game would probably be ahead of the other. With the way the committee operates, it's much more likely that kind of intuition is going to be right.

If we instead applied the men's system, you're more likely to have to worry a lot about some tiny change in common opponents vs. the 12th place team mattering for the ranking, and that's really annoying. I was caught off guard by the UND-SLU flip Saturday in the USCHO PWR because I knew UND had that comparison locked in with a huge RPI edge, regardless of what tiny fluctuations there could be in the other criteria. I didn't bother to look at that possibility because I knew it wouldn't matter.
 
Re: 2013 NCAA Quarterfinal: North Dakota @ Minnesota

Sports writer Bob Sansevere at the Pioneer Press in the Twin Cities got in some Q & A time with Brian Idalski.

North Dakota hopes sixth time the charm against Gophers
Thanks for the link.

From the article:
It is not often a college hockey team plays the same opponent six times in a season. It will happen this weekend.
Oh I wish this were actually true in the sense of this not being an annual NCAA QF occurrence in today's women's hockey landscape.

It hadn't dawned on me that Idalski had joined the committee (the handbooks and meeting minutes aren't as readily available as in the past.)

This was actually a revealing and encouraging quote from Idalski:
Our RPI wasn't close enough to Mercyhurst to justify flip-flopping us. (No. 7 seed Mercyhurst plays second-seeded Cornell in the quarterfinals.)
This suggests that UND or Wisconsin actually could've qualified and avoided Minnesota in the QF round, if either had been a solid #7. I was hopeful that was still true but I wasn't so sure of that. So it does seem the committee would be willing to spend some travel money to preserve bracket integrity, but not too much money.

This is all consistent with there being no intra-WCHA QF in 2009 when the WCHA had 3 of the top 5 teams, but we did have an intra-WCHA QF when it would've meant 4 flights in 2011.

Of course, it's still true that the committee will do little to avoid intra-WCHA matchups if bracket integrity demands it, but supposedly this is what the coaches wanted after 2007 and it tends to save money too.
 
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Re: 2013 NCAA Quarterfinal: North Dakota @ Minnesota

His team is in the same bracket that yours is, so I doubt that line will haunt him much.

Yeah, I'm aware that we're both in the invisible/non existent bracket although I have previously undisclosed (except for his) leanings towards some other teams thereby allowing me to spread the love around...when convenient. Who knows?...if there were a 12 or 14 team field our teams might be squaring off...and I might be somewhat torn.

But what I meant by "haunt" was if UM or UND don't win the Frozen Four...as per his post. Couldn't stop laughing at his response.
 
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