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2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

Reasoning that would force me to advocate UND being included. In favor of BU had both lost in the conference final.
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Don't agree. Two other teams that did not make the field were ahead of UND in the pairwise. Like it or not, UND's cold streak late in the year included a stretch with four losses in a row and a 1-5-1 record that took them from an almost guaranteed spot a good month ago to out of the running.

Having said that I do believe they are just as good as at least half the field in the tourney, but they did not post the needed results down the stretch, and just like RMU they are on the outside looking in as a result.
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

OnMAA said:
Don't agree. Two other teams that did not make the field were ahead of UND in the pairwise. Like it or not, UND's cold streak late in the year included a stretch with four losses in a row and a 1-5-1 record that took them from an almost guaranteed spot a good month ago to out of the running.

Having said that I do believe they are just as good as at least half the field in the tourney, but they did not post the needed results down the stretch, and just like RMU they are on the outside looking in as a result.
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Uh...it was as opposed to BU. So you're premise is BU would deserve entry even if they had lost the conference final...but not UND also losing in the conference final? Is that right?

It would truly shock me of course that you would agree that BU should get a berth under the hypothetical circumstances...while the same premise for the WCHA team would be preposterous.
 
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OnMAA said:
Having said that I do believe they are just as good as at least half the field in the tourney, but they did not post the needed results down the stretch, and just like RMU they are on the outside looking in as a result.
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At least with UND, we know why they struggled over the final month of the conference schedule. I'm still at a loss as to the collapse of the Colonials.
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

ARM said:
At least with UND, we know why they struggled over the final month of the conference schedule. I'm still at a loss as to the collapse of the Colonials.
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Another team with a ridiculous record in one goal games: 10-1. They were never as good as their record.
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

Eeyore said:
Another team with a ridiculous record in one goal games: 10-1. They were never as good as their record.
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Just like BU and their 11-3 record in one goal games. So I guess they're not as good as their record either.

Sean
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

"You are what your record says you are." - Bill Parcells
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

Whatever BU's record is and whether it is who they are or not, they have a one and done shot to take down the two-time defending national champions so we'll see what happens this coming Saturday.
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

Sean Pickett said:
Just like BU and their 11-3 record in one goal games. So I guess they're not as good as their record either.
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To a fair extent, yes. It's why it wasn't surprising that their record took a tumble over the second half of the season. One of the most robust findings of sports analytics is that a team's record in one goal (or one run, or one point, depending upon the sport) games is not a good predictor for future performance. It has a very strong tendency to regress to a point somewhere between a team's overall record and .500, usually closer to the latter.

Does it mean much for examining a one-and-done playoff situation? Not really, but that is because a single game a sample so small that variance can overwhelm that kind of information. But if you're halfway through a season, a team with an record in one goal games that is a lot better than its overall record (and BU's was even more extreme on the morning of January 5th than it is now) is a pretty good bet to come back to earth.

Edit: Just giving it a quick eyeball, I'd guess that BU's record in those 14 one goal games should probably be expected to be more like 8-5-1 if you played them all again. That would give them an overall record of 21-14-2 so it isn't a big difference at this point.

Of course, this gets us to the distinction between descriptive and predictive stats. None of that changes what BU's record actually is, only what we would predict it to converge to if the season continued on for a sufficient length of time. Descriptively, they're 24-12-1 and one of the last eight teams with games on their schedule. Since we're now to the point where variance is king, my advice is to just enjoy the ride; I'd give BU close to zero chance to finish better than Minnesota if they played a 28 game schedule against the same teams, but the chances are a lot higher than that of winning on Saturday.
 
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Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

brookyone said:
Uh...it was as opposed to BU. So you're premise is BU would deserve entry even if they had lost the conference final...but not UND also losing in the conference final? Is that right?
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I never said that and bad assumption on your part. IMHO, BU should not and would not have got in if they had not won the Autobid.

But credit has to go to BU, as an overwhelming underdog they won the Autobid in their Tourney final when it counted. UND had the same opportunity yesterday, but they could not pull it off. Both teams knew going into the weekend what was at stake for them.
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

ARM said:
At least with UND, we know why they struggled over the final month of the conference schedule. I'm still at a loss as to the collapse of the Colonials.
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Agree and me too (at a loss that is)
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

OnMAA said:
I never said that and bad assumption on your part. IMHO, BU should not and would not have got in if they had not won the Autobid.

But credit has to go to BU, as an overwhelming underdog they won the Autobid in their Tourney final when it counted. UND had the same opportunity yesterday, but they could not pull it off. Both teams knew going into the weekend what was at stake for them.
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Yeah...ya see...I was responding to a suggestion that it would be reasonable for BU to make the NCAA tournament even if they had not won the conference tournament. A suggestion made by someone else.

If that was reasonable in the mind of the person making the suggestion...then it would be commensurate in my view to reason similarly on UND's behalf.

I'm not saying UND should have gotten in despite losing in the conference final...get it? Nor BU if they had not won the conference tournament.
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

Skate79 said:
Mixed feelings about this. If BU didn't win today, should they have been denied a chance to play next week? I don't think so. Same with Quinnipiac. Maybe it won't be so close every year in terms of the numbers (PWR, RPI, KRACH) but I don't see the 'rich' getting 'poorer' anytime soon. Competition pushes everyone; I'm just wondering if that includes the CHA.
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Maybe this'll help you.

That's asking and answering a question far as I can tell.
 
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Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

brookyone said:
Yeah...ya see...I was responding to a suggestion that it would be reasonable for BU to make the NCAA tournament even if they had not won the conference tournament. A suggestion made by someone else.
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Well respond to "someone else" then instead on insinuating I made such a comment. Geez. !!
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

OnMAA said:
Well respond to "someone else" then instead on insinuating I made such a comment. Geez. !!
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I did respond to the person who made the initial comment, idiot. You responded to that response of mine.

Also, I never assumed what you claim I assumed. What a tool!
 
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Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

Skate79 said:
Mixed feelings about this. If BU didn't win today, should they have been denied a chance to play next week? I don't think so. Same with Quinnipiac. Maybe it won't be so close every year in terms of the numbers (PWR, RPI, KRACH) but I don't see the 'rich' getting 'poorer' anytime soon. Competition pushes everyone; I'm just wondering if that includes the CHA.
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brookyone said:
Reasoning that would force me to advocate UND being included. In favor of BU had both lost in the conference final.
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OnMAA said:
Well respond to "someone else" then instead on insinuating I made such a comment. Geez. !!
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Maybe this will provide the additional help you clearly need. Geeez!!

BTW...it was you making the bad, incorrect assumption and believing I thought UND should get an NCAA berth after losing the conference final.
 
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Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

brookyone said:
I did respond to the person who made the initial comment, idiot. You responded to that response of mine.

Also, I never assumed what you claim I assumed. What a tool!
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I should have known better than to respond to any of your postings. When you don't like someone's opinion you resort to childish name calling.
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

OnMAA said:
I should have known better than to respond to any of your postings. When you don't like someone's opinion you resort to childish name calling.
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Still not getting nothing to do with your opinion, rather your failure to comprehend the post I made in response to Skete and your incorrect assumtion based on that failure.
 
Re: 2013-2014 Women's D-I PairWise Contentions and Affirmations

TonyTheTiger20 said:
I really hate to pick sides here but brooky you are really the only one making the argument personal.
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Why take it personal when someone TELLS me I said / meant something I did not?

Sorry I called your buddy on his mistake.

I said that in the event anyone thought BU would still deserve a NCAA tournament berth while losing in their conference final that I would then believe such reasoning would also apply to UND...by the same token. That was a direct response, with quote to Skate.

Then OnMAA pipes in with an apparent belief I thought UND deserved to be in the NCAA tournament. Not what I posted. Subsequently admonishes me for not responding directly to Skate when in fact That's exactly what I did. Yeah...my fault.
 
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