2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

That pretty much sums it up. And it's the conservatives who are falling for it. Go figure.

 

[Gurtholfin]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

That pretty much sums it up. And it's the conservatives who are falling for it. Go figure.

I'm not a conservative and I have grave concerns over a nuclear Iran.

I'm not saying that I'm ready to invade, but we better stay ahead of this situation. I'd have zero problem with us dropping several bunker-busters in there tomorrow - **** the torpedos. The world would get over it soon enough.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

I'm not a conservative and I have grave concerns over a nuclear Iran.

I'm not saying that I'm ready to invade, but we better stay ahead of this situation. I'd have zero problem with us dropping several bunker-busters in there tomorrow - **** the torpedos. The world would get over it soon enough.

If anyone attacks Iran, they shutdown the Strait of Hormuz. When that happens, there'll be an oil shock the size of which that will put this economy flat on its back. In the end, Romney wouldn't risk his new presidency on that. We're a country that's mostly tired of war. Not only would he forfeit a second term, he'd likely lose a friendly House of Reps in the 2014 election.

At the same time, I think Iran's just doing some sabre rattling. Look back at all the threats they've made to the US and Israel over the past 10-15 years, they've not been following up on those threats. At worst, they're a nuisance, adding support to other groups to create terrorist acts. They will create problems, but they won't risk an all out war. Without oil going out of Iran and through the Strait of Hormuz, they have no world leverage because they'll have flattened their own economy too. China won't stand or the inflated prices, and neither would any of their other customers.

 

[Gurtholfin]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

If anyone attacks Iran, they shutdown the Strait of Hormuz.

Yeah, for maybe an hour until we take out all of their ships and shore batteries. We wouldn't need to invade Iran to keep the Strait open.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Yeah, for maybe an hour until we take out all of their ships and shore batteries. We wouldn't need to invade Iran to keep the Strait open.

Exactly. So, why go to war with them? We can fly planes in to take out nukes, and we can use the Navy to keep the strait open. There's no reason for a land war there just like there wasn't in Iraq. Afghanistan we should just sign a treaty with Karzai for 200 years and build a big friken anti-terror base there and keep about 6,000 troops there year round. Anyone messes with it, drone them to dust.

Time to start getting cheaper when it comes to our wars. Land wars are expensive. Occupations are expensive. Nation building is expensive.

 

[Gurtholfin]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Exactly. So, why go to war with them? We can fly planes in to take out nukes, and we can use the Navy to keep the strait open. There's no reason for a land war there just like there wasn't in Iraq. Afghanistan we should just sign a treaty with Karzai for 200 years and build a big friken anti-terror base there and keep about 6,000 troops there year round. Anyone messes with it, drone them to dust.

Time to start getting cheaper when it comes to our wars. Land wars are expensive. Occupations are expensive. Nation building is expensive.

Can't tell if you're sarcastic. I'm thinking not as I agree with all of it.

The LAST thing I'd advocate is for an invasion of Iran. Our air superiority is plenty to keep them in their (nuke-free) pen.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Yeah, for maybe an hour until we take out all of their ships and shore batteries. We wouldn't need to invade Iran to keep the Strait open.

But the impacts of that shutdown will last much longer. The act increases the uncertainty of getting more oil from the region. Unless the Saudis build a pipeline across the country form the gulf to the Red Sea, markets are going to take into account the acts of Iran. Because after we reopen the strait, Iran will insist on trying to reopen it. Regardless of their success, it will insert uncertainty and disrupt deliveries through the strait. Thus we will see global economic stifling. And then I'll have to break out my bike and ride it for a longer distance than I have lung capacity to withstand. It's all highly unacceptable.

 

[walrus]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

You think the navy can clear sunken super tankers out of the straits in a few hours? It might take weeks to clear sunken ships out of there, weeks without oil moving thru there kills the worlds economy

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

That pretty much sums it up. And it's the conservatives who are falling for it. Go figure.

Yeah, libstains are way too smart. Where does this anti-Israel animus in libstain world come from, anyway?

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

I'm not a conservative and I have grave concerns over a nuclear Iran.

I'm not saying that I'm ready to invade, but we better stay ahead of this situation. I'd have zero problem with us dropping several bunker-busters in there tomorrow - **** the torpedos. The world would get over it soon enough.

Iran seems to be moving inexorably toward nuclear weapons. Nobdy that I'm aware of bothers to deny it. When they've got nukes, what are they going to do with them? They've already made it clear their intention is to destroy Israel. I'm not anxious to get involved here, but it seems to me doing nothing and hoping for the best is a prescription for the deaths of millions. Besides, on some level, I'd like to see what the MOPs can do.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Exactly. So, why go to war with them? We can fly planes in to take out nukes, and we can use the Navy to keep the strait open. There's no reason for a land war there just like there wasn't in Iraq. Afghanistan we should just sign a treaty with Karzai for 200 years and build a big friken anti-terror base there and keep about 6,000 troops there year round. Anyone messes with it, drone them to dust.

Time to start getting cheaper when it comes to our wars. Land wars are expensive. Occupations are expensive. Nation building is expensive.

Aside from yourself, tell us who, exactly is advocating or even discussing a "land war" in and "occupation" of Iran? It's a strawman. From your seemingly inexhaustible supply.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Yeah, libstains are way too smart. Where does this anti-Israel animus in libstain world come from, anyway?

Zechariah 14.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Yeah, for maybe an hour until we take out all of their ships and shore batteries. We wouldn't need to invade Iran to keep the Strait open.

Any attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would also include massive pre-emptive strikes on other military assets. We're not going to wait for them to shut down the Strait. Tony Cordesman laid it all out recently.

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/09/iran-war-plan/

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Zechariah 14.

There's got to be more to it than that. For decades American liberals supported Israel against repeated attacks by her Arab enemies. Support for Israel is still very strong. But there's a vocal minority on the left that doesn't seem to believe or care if Iran poses a mortal threat. It's Rachel Corrie writ large.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

But the impacts of that shutdown will last much longer. The act increases the uncertainty of getting more oil from the region. Unless the Saudis build a pipeline across the country form the gulf to the Red Sea, markets are going to take into account the acts of Iran. Because after we reopen the strait, Iran will insist on trying to reopen it. Regardless of their success, it will insert uncertainty and disrupt deliveries through the strait. Thus we will see global economic stifling. And then I'll have to break out my bike and ride it for a longer distance than I have lung capacity to withstand. It's all highly unacceptable.

You're begging the question of whether Iran can actually "shut down" the Strait. I have serious doubts.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

You're begging the question of whether Iran can actually "shut down" the Strait. I have serious doubts.

I think they could for a short period of time. It's a very narrow passage and they wouldn't need to control a long section of it, just a few hundred meters. It wouldn't even take that many mines to scare the commercial vessels from traveling the strait for a long while. They could toss out the mines at night, move a few ships into position, and they're done. There would be a week to a month's worth of talks, and then someone would attack their forces. It wouldn't necessarily be the US either.

Iran might not have a vast navy when compared to nations such as the US, China, Russia, and various other European nations, but they have enough to be the thorn in our sides for a period of time.

That said, I don't see them doing it. They have enough problems with dissension and protests in their nation, such an aggressive act would only provoke more of that. Such an act could prove to be the spark for a coup, either externally goaded or internal in origin, but certainly armed by countries like ours.

 

[bronconick]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

I think we'd be skipping the week to month of talking if we woke up one morning with them crowing about their minefield and coast guard navy holding the straits. We aren't operating 3 carrier groups in the general area at whatever cost for nothing.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Aside from yourself, tell us who, exactly is advocating or even discussing a "land war" in and "occupation" of Iran?

Mitt Romney.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

Mitt Romney.

Where?

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: 2012 Presidential Election Part III: October Surprise!

In today's Things-that-Kepler-isn't-saying-but-would-say-if-it-were-the-other-way-around, Gallup has Obama and Romney in a dead heat, in response to the first debate.