2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

[dave1381]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

Consider the concrete example of NoDak last year. They went 0-5 against UW, because mostly, nobody beat the Badgers. The 8th place teams are going to usually struggle against the most dominant team, and if you weight it too much at the top, you are rewarding the teams that mostly played teams around #10, which is the same flaw that the current system has with a different multiplier. Even though losing to Wisconsin doesn't hurt as much in KRACH, every ratings system will still punish losses. If everyone was playing the same teams, then no problem, but this system still punishes lower TUC teams that play a more difficult schedule. If parity against the top teams existed to the extent that it does in the men's game, then it would be less of an issue.

Ok, I'm now in agreement with you in terms of equally weighting games against the top 8.

You do, however, in my ideal system, need some kind of wins against the top 8. So last year's North Dakota would do fine, in a KRACH using only games against the 8 and lower-weighted games against teams 9-12, because that UND team went 1-1 vs. BU, 2-2 vs. UMD, and 3-1 vs. Minnesota.

Now there is still the possibility with such a system that you could truly be on the top 8 teams in the country, but you went 0-12 against the top 3 teams in your conference who are in the national top 5, and you didn't play anyone in the #6-15 range. There's nothing a ranking system can do to redeem a team in that situation. And that's fine. You have to beat someone even if you play a tough schedule.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

Now there is still the possibility with such a system that you could truly be on the top 8 teams in the country, but you went 0-12 against the top 3 teams in your conference who are in the national top 5, and you didn't play anyone in the #6-15 range. There's nothing a ranking system can do to redeem a team in that situation. And that's fine. You have to beat someone even if you play a tough schedule.

Understood. If you're 0-12 against those teams, then you'd probably just as soon stay home, rather than have the inevitable match-up with one of them to make it 0-13.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

As a NoDak fan, (last year) I thought we could have done better than a 7-1 loss in the NCAA tourney to the team that lost to the team that lost in the championship..

Who lost to whom, who lost to whom, who lost to whom. ?. That is a lot of losing.

It always look better if you say
we won over them who won over them who won over them.

 

[northhockey]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

Who lost to whom, who lost to whom, who lost to whom. ?

Dartmouth (who was picked instead of UND) lost 7-1 to Cornell, who then lost 4-1 to BU, who then lost 4-1 to the Badgers.
In my completely biased view, I thought UND could've done better.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

The wacky revolving door in the pairwise rankings continues tonight: as a bunch of ECAC teams jump ahead of idle BU, they move into the RPI 12, which means that Harvard jumps back into the top 8 and Northeastern falls out.

This could be quite a tragicomedy unfolding over the next several weeks. But my guess is BU will continue to perform well and solidify its position in the top 12.

 

[ManBehindTheCurtain]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

Another day, another round of games, another intriguing twist to the Pairwise.

If the tournament started today the WCHA gets 4 teams in as North Dakota improves to a SOLID 6th while UMD also gets in by winning the 8th place tie with Saint Lawrence.

The intriguing twist is the tie for 8th place between UMD and Saint Lawrence. Saint Lawrence wins the comparison with UMD meaning that UMD seems likely to be on the outside looking in. Except that Saint Lawrence loses the head to head against CLARKSON (no, not UMD, CLARKSON) moving the comparison back to even. UMD prevails with a better RPI.

How is it possible that Saint Lawrence loses head to head Pairwise to Clarkson, a team it has played three times. Especially considering that Saint Lawrence has two wins and a tie in those three games.

UMD gets in because Saint Lawrence loses an off ice Pairwise comparison to a team that it has dominated in ON ICE competition.

 

[brookyone]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

Another night of quick changes:

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-rankings/d-i-women/

Edit: Darty take a beatin'!

 

[OnMAA]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

UMD gets in because Saint Lawrence loses an off ice Pairwise comparison to a team that it has dominated in ON ICE competition.

Bracketology 401. (HTH is one of four comparitors)

 

[OnMAA]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

The wacky revolving door in the pairwise rankings continues tonight: as a bunch of ECAC teams jump ahead of idle BU, they move into the RPI 12, which means that Harvard jumps back into the top 8 and Northeastern falls out.

This could be quite a tragicomedy unfolding over the next several weeks. But my guess is BU will continue to perform well and solidify its position in the top 12.

The RPI numbers from rankings 6 through 14 are so tightly bunched, that one or two unexpected results can cause a lot of shifting. Tomorrow Dartmouth plays Quinnipiac and Harvard plays a red hot Princeton. It could lead to more volatility.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

The RPI numbers from rankings 6 through 14 are so tightly bunched, that one or two unexpected results can cause a lot of shifting. Tomorrow Dartmouth plays Quinnipiac and Harvard plays a red hot Princeton. It could lead to more volatility.

With the BC loss to PC and the UMD loss to THE HSU, interesting to watch the pairwise shifts tomorrow. Will SLU come back in and UMD drop out of the top 12 ?.

 

[pakidnyc]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

This is updated.....Apparently Mercyhurst tied Niagara tonight, so they drop down one spot. So weird that they are having a tough time beating the 3 teams in their league. BC down to 7 with their loss and Harvard up to 6. Looks like the 5-8th spots are definitely in play over these next few weeks, maybe even see changes in 3rd-8th.


Women’s Division I PairWise Rankings
Switch to Pairwise Rankings Comparison Grid »
Click on a column header to sort by that column.Rank Team PWR W-L-T Win % Win % Rank RPI RPI Rank vs. TUC TUC %
1 Wisconsin 11 25-2-2 .8966 1 .6743* 1 8-2-2 .7500
2 Minnesota 10 24-4-2 .8333 3 .6383* 2 8-3-1 .7083
3 Cornell 9 21-3-0 .8750 2 .6354* 3 5-3-0 .6250
4 North Dakota 8 18-9-2 .6552 11t .5737* 4 2-6-2 .3000
5 Mercyhurst 7 19-5-2 .7692 5 .5725* 5 4-2-0 .6667
6 Harvard 6 16-7-1 .6875 7 .5715* 6 5-5-0 .5000
7 Boston College 5 18-8-3 .6724 9 .5712* 7 6-3-2 .6364
8 Northeastern 3 18-6-3 .7222 6 .5643* 8 1-4-2 .2857
9t Dartmouth 2 15-7-2 .6667 10 .5592* 9 4-5-1 .4500
9t Minnesota-Duluth 2 15-12-1 .5536 17 .5498 10 4-9-1 .3214
9t St. Lawrence 2 17-8-4 .6552 11t .5447* 12 5-6-1 .4583
12 Clarkson 1 18-7-5 .6833 8 .5474* 11 2-6-2 .3000


Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-rankings/d-i-women/#ixzz1lTV20o6A

 

[OnMAA]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

This is updated.....Apparently Mercyhurst tied Niagara tonight, so they drop down one spot. So weird that they are having a tough time beating the 3 teams in their league. BC down to 7 with their loss and Harvard up to 6. Looks like the 5-8th spots are definitely in play over these next few weeks, maybe even see changes in 3rd-8th.


Women’s Division I PairWise Rankings
Switch to Pairwise Rankings Comparison Grid »
Click on a column header to sort by that column.Rank Team PWR W-L-T Win % Win % Rank RPI RPI Rank vs. TUC TUC %
1 Wisconsin 11 25-2-2 .8966 1 .6743* 1 8-2-2 .7500
2 Minnesota 10 24-4-2 .8333 3 .6383* 2 8-3-1 .7083
3 Cornell 9 21-3-0 .8750 2 .6354* 3 5-3-0 .6250
4 North Dakota 8 18-9-2 .6552 11t .5737* 4 2-6-2 .3000
5 Mercyhurst 7 19-5-2 .7692 5 .5725* 5 4-2-0 .6667
6 Harvard 6 16-7-1 .6875 7 .5715* 6 5-5-0 .5000
7 Boston College 5 18-8-3 .6724 9 .5712* 7 6-3-2 .6364
8 Northeastern 3 18-6-3 .7222 6 .5643* 8 1-4-2 .2857
9t Dartmouth 2 15-7-2 .6667 10 .5592* 9 4-5-1 .4500
9t Minnesota-Duluth 2 15-12-1 .5536 17 .5498 10 4-9-1 .3214
9t St. Lawrence 2 17-8-4 .6552 11t .5447* 12 5-6-1 .4583
12 Clarkson 1 18-7-5 .6833 8 .5474* 11 2-6-2 .3000


Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-rankings/d-i-women/#ixzz1lTV20o6A

So BU won 5-1 over UNH and dropped out. SLU won 3-1 over Brown and came back in and Clarky won 7-0 over Yale and stayed in on the bubble.

I noticed the star for the adjusted RPI. Does anyone know what constitutes a weak enough team to merit an RPI adjustment ?. Clearly that can have a major impact on the RPI order with such narrow margins, which can lead to the difference between 11,12,13 and 14, wihic leads to the top 12 that determines the final order whihc in turn leads to the order for the final 8.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

This is updated.....Apparently Mercyhurst tied Niagara tonight, so they drop down one spot. So weird that they are having a tough time beating the 3 teams in their league.

Mercyhurst has had trouble with Niagara in the past. They lost a game to them last year as well, and IIRC had trouble with them earlier this year as well.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

Does anyone know what constitutes a weak enough team to adjust an RPI ?

It varies. The higher a team's RPI, the more likely that an opponent can be weak enough such that the averages compute higher if that game is excluded altogether. A team like Yale hurts because it's own winning percentage is so low, so if it's opponents also tend to have low winning percentages, a win over the Bulldogs can decrease the average. Obviously this doesn't apply to lower-ranked teams, where any win is a good win.

 

[northhockey]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

UND jumps to 4th after they sweep Bemidji. Could the Ralph actually host a NCAA game?

 

[OnMAA]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

UND jumps to 4th after they sweep Bemidji. Could the Ralph actually host a NCAA game?

Doubtfull unless they get ahead of either Minnesota or Wisco during the WCHA tournament.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

Yeah UND has a decent shot, though there are a bunch of teams that are neck-and-neck in the RPI.

UND probably controls its own destiny but also has the toughest task ahead, since the Sioux have 2 and most likely 3 games left against Minnesota.

Mercyhurst is a threat to take No. 4 with a road upset of Cornell, but I think that's unlikely and the Lakers seem to be dropping a lot of points in league.

The winner of the BC-Harvard game Tuesday could be UND's biggest threat for home ice. Both teams have pretty easy schedules going forward after Tuesday.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

Doubtfull unless they get ahead of either Minnesota or Wisco during the WCHA tournament.

It's unlikely that both Minnesota and North Dakota can host, given they could meet three times over the next month. However, if teams like BC and Mercyhurst continue to struggle, who knows?

 

[northhockey]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

Doubtfull unless they get ahead of either Minnesota or Wisco during the WCHA tournament.

So they would fly UND to a lower seed? Or to Cornell? Hypothetically

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

Doubtfull unless they get ahead of either Minnesota or Wisco during the WCHA tournament.

I think if they take 2 of 3 against Minnesota, UND is in really good shape to host. (assuming they play in the WCHA semis). 1 of 3 they might still have a shot if the other teams 5-8 stumble, and none of these teams have been world-beaters lately. But 0-3 against Minnesota rest of the way is probably not going to cut it.