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I think that the BU win over UMD is an aberration as well. UMD has more games (and thus losses) from UW, while BU has more with UConn. BU was plus one versus BC, but UMD was plus won versus UND. So I'd say that COP is a wash. UMD has a better RPI, so right now, they should win that comparison.
I think that is true. One question is what would the committee do with UND should you fall to 8th but still make the field? Can they send you to Madison if Wisconsin is the top seed, or would that mean that they'd have to fly you there? Even a flight to Madison wouldn't be out of the question, because that would still leave the committee with (presumably) four teams from the ECAC and HEA combined, plus Mercyhurst, so they could get by perhaps with but one more flight to send someone to Minneapolis (unless Mercyhurst needs a flight as well.) And of course, UMD is still alive as well.
That's not what is being done. Dave and I are discussing the Common OPponents category of the PWR. BU takes the comparisons with both UMD and UND as shown on USCHO, based in part by doing better against common opponents on a percentage basis. We are just commenting that both UMD and UND look worse compared to BU because of more games played -- and lost -- versus Wisconsin. The Terriers didn't have success against UW either; they just played the Badgers fewer times. Conversely, BU played Vermont and Connecticut more than UND and UMD respectively. Neither SCSU nor Lindenwood is an opponent of BU, so they are not part of this criterion. So you can call a spade a spade, but in this hand, clubs are trump.
I believe that the committee must have done something such as that with COP last year to place Minnesota above Mercyhurst, because the Lakers took the USCHO version of COP due to the advantage of 4-0 over 1-0 versus Wayne State, coupled with MC being 0-1 playing Wisconsin while Minnesota was 1-3-1. So in those games alone, MC was 4-1 while UM was 2-3-1, but it wasn't apples to apples. Because Mercyhurst also played SCSU and BSU and went 4-1 (compared to Minnesota's 7-1), the total number came out to 8-2 versus 9-4-1.
Yeah, it's hard to tell for sure because that was a three-team comparison with BC. I agree they used some discretion there. I think they more or less ended up ranking the three teams based on record vs. TUC since that's where the biggest differences were.
Isn't the Cornell vs UW comparison close enough that the Big Red can still reverse it if Wisconsin loses, particularly to UMD?
Yes, you're right. Cornell is clearly No. 1 if Wisconsin loses to UMD and Cornell wins the ECAC. If Wisconsin loses in the WCHA final instead, my guess is Cornell would still be No. 1. The RPIs would be really close and Cornell would have a clearer edge in the record vs. TUC.
I can see it now. UMD beats UND in the WCHA final, Cornell wins the ECAC, and we wind up with half of the NCAA bracket being UMD at Wisconsin and UND at Minnesota. In other words, a replay of the WCHA tournament with four of the top five teams in KRACH. That'll be well received in the West.
