2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

[NUWH DogHouse]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

I think if it came down to straight comparison of Northeastern vs. Mercyhurst, Mercyhurst would lose that one due to Mercyhurst's much better record against common opponents. For a variety of reasons you should want BC to beat BU. One of those reasons is that you'd like BC to win the comparison against Mercyhurst, so it's more of a three-way comparison between Northeastern vs. BC vs. Mercyhurst. Northeastern has a better chance of coming out on top in that case.

Did you mean NU would lose it?

But I have a question it says RPI will break tiebreakers does that just apply to individual PWR points or also if two team have the same amount of PWR points. Because if NU catches bc in RPI, either we win HEA or we win and they lose in the semifinals should cause that, we can flip that comparison meaning both Mercyurst and NU would have 7 PWR in a tie for 4th, them having the comparison against us.

 

[ARM]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

But I have a question it says RPI will break tiebreakers does that just apply to individual PWR points or also if two team have the same amount of PWR points.

Officially, RPI is the tiebreaker for both. There have been cases where if the RPI differential is minute and some other criterion that comes into play is much more clear cut, that isn't always followed to the letter. Apparently, that's why they have a human committee, instead of just a pure algorithm.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

On the men's side, where they remove the "human element," RPI is the tiebreaker for an even comparison, regardless of how small the difference. I vaguely remember reading that for ties in total comparisons won, they look at the individual comparisons first and then use the RPI as a tiebreaker -- but the PWR just uses the RPI always for some reason.

 

[CrazyDave]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

And then there's this monkey-wrench...

Univ. of North Dakota president: School will use Fighting Sioux nickname despite NCAA threat (Star Tribune)

This was highlighted in the North Dakota thread, but thought I'd point it out here too because of the implications.

NCAA announces sanctions to North Dakota for use of nickname, logo

 

[Jersey]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

As usual, The NCAA sets new standards for hypocrisy. UMD is being sanctioned for using a logo despite the fact that the tribe has given the University is blessing to use it. Why is ND allowed to use the Fighting Irish moniker along with its stereotypical leprachaun caricature? What is the difference? ( aside from money and alumni power).
The NCAA 's time would be better spent cleaning up the various football and basketball programs(just to name two sports) who break rules and in many cases flaunt their transgressions. Plenty to keep them busy there. I hope UMD and the tribe stand firm

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

-- UND not UMD

-- There were two relevant Sioux tribes, one gave approval and the other didn't, though many have criticized the decision process of the tribe that denied approval.

 

[yungblud]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

They haven't denied the use, just never voted on it. If they voted it is strongly believed that they would vote in favor of keeping it.

 

[granddaddyscout]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

Looking for some feedback from Dave;

Here is what I see.
1. UW, UM, Cornell, BC, MH, are all in for sure. That leaves 3 spots.
2. UMD, BU, PC, and SL only make the NCAA with an auto bid.
3. UND could be in trouble with a loss to UM, in for sure with a win.
4. NU likely in, definitely in with a win vs PC
5. Does a BU championship win over NU put 3 Hockey east teams in? The BU wins would help NU solidify a top 8 spot.
6. I don't see a scenario with 4 WCHA teams, if UMD gets the auto bid it looks like they knock out UND.

Thoughts Dave????

 

[ARM]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

2. UMD, BU, PC, and SL only make the NCAA with an auto bid.

Add Quinnipiac to this set.

Anybody sitting at No. 6 or below can be knocked off with enough outside auto-bid winners. Not likely, but a mathematical possibility.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

1. UW, UM, Cornell, BC, MH, are all in for sure. That leaves 3 spots.

Wouldn't say BC is in for sure. I think BC can easily slip all the way to 8th if it loses to BU and everyone behind it wins, which is actually a totally reasonable outcome. That hold on #4 is tenuous to say the least. Mercyhurst is in better shape than BC in terms of making the tournament, mainly because they have a firmer common opponent advantage and aren't playing any teams under consideration.

2. UMD, BU, PC, and SL only make the NCAA with an auto bid.

See ARM's comment.

3. UND could be in trouble with a loss to UM, in for sure with a win.

Yeah.

4. NU likely in, definitely in with a win vs PC

Again these teams (apart from Mercyhurst) are quite close, so hard to say they're likely in with a loss to Providence.

5. Does a BU championship win over NU put 3 Hockey east teams in? The BU wins would help NU solidify a top 8 spot.

Probably. I'd have to check cases where BC might be out.

6. I don't see a scenario with 4 WCHA teams, if UMD gets the auto bid it looks like they knock out UND.

UMD beating UND is certainly the most likely four-bid scenario. There's no reason that would have to knock out UND rather than say Harvard or some Hockey East team.

 

[pakidnyc]

Looking for some feedback from Dave;

Here is what I see.
1. UW, UM, Cornell, BC, MH, are all in for sure. That leaves 3 spots.
2. UMD, BU, PC, and SL only make the NCAA with an auto bid.
3. UND could be in trouble with a loss to UM, in for sure with a win.
4. NU likely in, definitely in with a win vs PC
5. Does a BU championship win over NU put 3 Hockey east teams in? The BU wins would help NU solidify a top 8 spot.
6. I don't see a scenario with 4 WCHA teams, if UMD gets the auto bid it looks like they knock out UND.

Thoughts Dave????

UMD is one game away from that auto bid. If they win, Wisco and Minnesota will be in, plus Cornell and Mercyhurst (regardless of their results tomorrow) and I would think BC regardless of their outcome. So, that leaves 2 potential autobids if Cornell or BC were to lose. That would be 8.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

Ok, so Harvard is squarely on the bubble at No. 8. Don't be confused by the ties in the current PWR. They are No. 8, and Harvard wins the UMD comparison if UMD loses.

N. Dakota is No. 7. If UND stays at No. 7, they can't have two of the following teams win autobids: UMD, SLU, Providence, and BU. There's some chance UND may edge by BC if BC loses to BU, but I think the committee would favor BC's huge edge in record vs. RPI top 12 over slight UND edges in RPI and common opponents. So I think UND should clearly root for Northeastern & BC this weekend.

As for the possibility of UMD winning the WCHA title: I'd really hope the NCAA wouldn't go for the WCHA tourney retread bracket (Wisconsin and Minnesota 2-3 seeds playing the same opponents as in WCHA final). My hope is the committee won't be that cheap, that they can tolerate springing for 3 but not 4 flights. But we'll see.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

UMD is one game away from that auto bid. If they win, Wisco and Minnesota will be in, plus Cornell and Mercyhurst (regardless of their results tomorrow) and I would think BC regardless of their outcome. So, that leaves 2 potential autobids if Cornell or BC were to lose. That would be 8.

BC is out under the following scenario:

Hockey East final: BU over Northeastern
ECAC final: SLU over Cornell
WCHA final: UMD over Minnesota

I expect Northeastern gets the last at-large over BC in this scenario.

 

[NUWH DogHouse]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

BC is out under the following scenario:

Hockey East final: BU over Northeastern
ECAC final: SLU over Cornell
WCHA final: UMD over Minnesota

I expect Northeastern gets the last at-large over BC in this scenario.

I think so. We would be tied in PWR and we would have the head to head comparison and the RPI tie breaker.

Also how did the bc-Mercyhurst comparison flip today? Hurst beat Syracuse and is still losing in RPI. The only comparison that could switch is TUC and the TUCs are the same and Cuse isn't one of them.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

I think so. We would be tied in PWR and we would have the head to head comparison and the RPI tie breaker.

NU would be ahead of BC in RPI/TUC/COP, and that overcomes the two head-to-head losses. Clearly comparison win for NU.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

What are Harvard & UND's chances now that they're left to scoreboard watching? So Harvard needs none of the four teams outside the current top 8 to win autobids, and UND needs fewer than two.

According to KRACH, here are the probabilities of an autobid winner outside the top 8 in each league:
WCHA: 25%
ECAC: 20%
Hockey East: 27% (20% BU, 7% Providence)
Chance Harvard gets in: 43%
Chance UND gets in: 86%

I'd argue that the WCHA & Hockey East numbers are too low because of UMD's home ice & BU's improvement. I think the ECAC number is about right considering the opposite effects of Cornell's home ice and SLU's recent improvement.

If we assume the WCHA & Hockey East probabilities are each 10% too low, then
Chance Harvard gets in: 33%
Chance UND gets in: 78%

Extreme case, if we assume UMD and BU/Providence each have 50/50 chance of autobid
Chance Harvard gets in: 25%
Chance UND gets in: 68%

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

I also should note: if Northeastern loses to Providence, Harvard would win the comparison against Northeastern, so that's not necessarily a bad outcome.

SLU could also conceivably be judged to win the comparison against Northeastern as well and beat out Northeastern for an at-large, though BC would have to win Hockey East for that to happen.

 

[brookyone]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

The selection show broadcast...internet? TV? Thanks!

 

[granddaddyscout]

Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Division I Bracketology

Looks like the Badgers may hold onto #2 even if the Gophers win tonight, thoughts?

Any thoughts on the "name" fight hurting UND if they are on the edge?

 

[DC78-82]

I also should note: if Northeastern loses to Providence, Harvard would win the comparison against Northeastern, so that's not necessarily a bad outcome.

SLU could also conceivably be judged to win the comparison against Northeastern as well and beat out Northeastern for an at-large, though BC would have to win Hockey East for that to happen.

Okay well Northeastern just lost to Providence.