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2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

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Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

aparch said:
Pretty sure they don't have the right to b*tch since they're the ones that got swept by PWR#13 Minnesota and lost one game to PWR#23 UNO.
Click to expand...

Yeah, and the we've lost once since that sweep and the gophers have lost 9 times...what's your point?
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

That unless the Gophers either sweep the rest of the season, or tank below TUC status... your ranking is tied to how they play. :p
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

I have found the discrepancy between sites.

The TBRW site begins with games as of 10-07-11 but there were three games before that. Lake Superior won a pair of games at UAH and Michigan defeated Niagara at home. When those three games are added to the mix the pairwise and RPI match those at SiouxSports. The USCHO RPI/Pairwise does not yet have the Wisconsin/North Dakota score. Once it does, it should align with SiouxSports and TBRW.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

If scores in Alaska hold (Denver and Alaska both lead by 3 goals)

1 Minn-Duluth (WC)
2 Boston Univ (HE)
3 Mass-Lowell (HE)
4 Michigan (CC)
5 Northern Mich (CC)
6 Ohio State (CC)
7 Ferris State (CC)
8 Boston Coll (HE)
9 Minnesota (WC)
10 Merrimack (HE)
11 Notre Dame (CC)
12 Miami (CC)
13 Maine (HE)
14 Denver U (WC)
15 Union (EC)

Code: 
[B]Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul		Green Bay[/B]
Lowell		BU		Minn-Duluth		Michigan
Boston College	Ohio State	Ferris State		Northern Mich
Notre Dame	Merrimack	Minnesota		Miami
Denver		Union		AHA Champ		Maine
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Biddco said:
We're still a #1 seed. Green Bay or St. Paul doesn't matter. I would give the slight edge to St. Paul because then my drive will be 90% shorter :)
Click to expand...

If we don't start scoring on the power play, you won't have to worry about driving anywhere. Five on five play has carried us all season, but eventually the lack of power play goals is going to catch up with us (tonight is a good example).
 
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Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Obviously quite a bit of hockey to play here... But I am starting to think that NMU's chances are for real here...

Would you "experts" say that our ranking is still artificially inflated by the SOS that we've had thus far or are things starting to level off for that? Obviously if we just win, things will take care of themselves... How much further do we have to go before we establish ourselves a safety net?

I will not start looking ahead...
I will not start looking ahead...
I will not start looking ahead...
I will not start looking ahead...


Ha ha ha... I hate this crap and thinking about the PWR... Too much time on our hands still :(
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless said:
If scores in Alaska hold (Denver and Alaska both lead by 3 goals)

1 Minn-Duluth (WC)
2 Boston Univ (HE)
3 Mass-Lowell (HE)
4 Michigan (CC)
5 Northern Mich (CC)
6 Ohio State (CC)
7 Ferris State (CC)
8 Boston Coll (HE)
9 Minnesota (WC)
10 Merrimack (HE)
11 Notre Dame (CC)
12 Miami (CC)
13 Maine (HE)
14 Denver U (WC)
15 Union (EC)

Code: 
[B]Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul		Green Bay[/B]
Lowell		BU		Minn-Duluth		Michigan
Boston College	Ohio State	Ferris State		Northern Mich
Notre Dame	Merrimack	Minnesota		Miami
Denver		Union		AHA Champ		Maine
Click to expand...

How in the fleeping heck are we back in third? I've just stopped understanding this season... just sweep ZooMass-Carfire.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

RaceBoarder said:
Obviously quite a bit of hockey to play here... But I am starting to think that NMU's chances are for real here...

Would you "experts" say that our ranking is still artificially inflated by the SOS that we've had thus far or are things starting to level off for that? Obviously if we just win, things will take care of themselves... How much further do we have to go before we establish ourselves a safety net?
Click to expand...

NMU is actually in one of the most volatile spots right now, it wouldn't take much to push them down to the mid teens. I put a one-week chart for NMU in my weekly UND PWR article, because they're somewhat unique in how likely they are to move big in a such a short time.

Part of it is NMU not having common opponents with an incredibly high 6 TUCs. 2 more are ties, so a full 25% of NMU's comparisons come down to only one or two criteria, so it's much more sensitive to a small change in TUC or RPI.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Assuming Denver holds onto the two-goal lead in Anchorage...

1 Minn-Duluth (WC)
2 Boston Univ (HE)
3 Mass-Lowell (HE)
4 Ferris State (CC)
5 Ohio State (CC)
6 Boston Coll (HE)
7 Michigan (CC)
8 Miami (CC)
9 Merrimack (HE)
10 Minnesota (WC)
11 Maine (HE)
12 Notre Dame (CC)
13 Northern Mich (CC)
14 Denver U (WC)
15 Union (EC)

Code: 
[B]Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay[/B]
Lowell		BU		Minn-Duluth	Ferris St
Boston College	Michigan	Miami		Ohio St
Notre Dame	Merrimack	Minnesota	Maine
Denver		Union		AHA Champ	Northern Mich
Green Bay is all CCHA teams, but Maine and Notre Dame are swapped out to avoid one first-round intra-conference affair. NMU and Denver can be swapped as well, but with the CCHA getting 6 teams in, it's not mandatory. For that matter, the Maine/Notre Dame swap isn't required either as Hockey East places 5 teams in the field.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless said:
Assuming Denver holds onto the two-goal lead in Anchorage...

1 Minn-Duluth (WC)
2 Boston Univ (HE)
3 Mass-Lowell (HE)
4 Ferris State (CC)
5 Ohio State (CC)
6 Boston Coll (HE)
7 Michigan (CC)
8 Miami (CC)
9 Merrimack (HE)
10 Minnesota (WC)
11 Maine (HE)
12 Notre Dame (CC)
13 Northern Mich (CC)
14 Denver U (WC)
15 Union (EC)

Code: 
[B]Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay[/B]
Lowell		BU		Minn-Duluth	Ferris St
Boston College	Michigan	Miami		Ohio St
Notre Dame	Merrimack	Minnesota	Maine
Denver		Union		AHA Champ	Northern Mich
Green Bay is all CCHA teams, but Maine and Notre Dame are swapped out to avoid one first-round intra-conference affair. NMU and Denver can be swapped as well, but with the CCHA getting 6 teams in, it's not mandatory. For that matter, the Maine/Notre Dame swap isn't required either as Hockey East places 5 teams in the field.
Click to expand...

Couldn't you swap NMU and Denver to make Green Bay not all CCHA, or are they the hosts?

Edit: should have kept reading. Move along, nothing to see here.
 
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Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless said:
Assuming Denver holds onto the two-goal lead in Anchorage...

1 Minn-Duluth (WC)
2 Boston Univ (HE)
3 Mass-Lowell (HE)
4 Ferris State (CC)
5 Ohio State (CC)
6 Boston Coll (HE)
7 Michigan (CC)
8 Miami (CC)
9 Merrimack (HE)
10 Minnesota (WC)
11 Maine (HE)
12 Notre Dame (CC)
13 Northern Mich (CC)
14 Denver U (WC)
15 Union (EC)

Code: 
[B]Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay[/B]
Lowell		BU		Minn-Duluth	Ferris St
Boston College	Michigan	Miami		Ohio St
Notre Dame	Merrimack	Minnesota	Maine
Denver		Union		AHA Champ	Northern Mich
Green Bay is all CCHA teams, but Maine and Notre Dame are swapped out to avoid one first-round intra-conference affair. NMU and Denver can be swapped as well, but with the CCHA getting 6 teams in, it's not mandatory. For that matter, the Maine/Notre Dame swap isn't required either as Hockey East places 5 teams in the field.
Click to expand...

I don't question that this could be a scenario... but updated PWR shows Minnesota tied with Merrimack and Miami for 8th. Minnesota was given 8th, then Merrimack then Miami in order. This would not jive with your bands.

Staying within the strict integrity of the brackets i.e. 1-8-9-16 etc. it makes a difference since the 8th overall is in the 2nd seed band and 9 &10 are in the 3rd seed band. Since Minnesota is a host they would be in the West, anyway.

I have it like this: 1-8-10-16 West UMD-Minn-Miami-AHA
2-7-9-15 NE BU-Mich-Merrimack-Union
3-6-11-14 East UML-OSU-Maine-Denver
4-5-12-13 Midw FSU-BC-ND-NMU

I'm guessing it is subjective to ship NMU to the East and Denver to the Midwest to avoid the first round match-up. Denver has to fly either way, but NMU is closer to Green Bay for attendance, plus having > four conference teams. I'm interested to see what Jason does. This preserves bracket integrity.
The only flip was the 9th and 10th teams in the 3rd seed band to prevent a first round intraconference match.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

streaker said:
I don't question that this could be a scenario... but updated PWR shows Minnesota tied with Merrimack and Miami for 8th. Minnesota was given 8th, then Merrimack then Miami in order. This would not jive with your bands.

Staying within the strict integrity of the brackets i.e. 1-8-9-16 etc. it makes a difference since the 8th overall is in the 2nd seed band and 9 &10 are in the 3rd seed band. Since Minnesota is a host they would be in the West, anyway.

I have it like this: 1-8-10-16 West UMD-Minn-Miami-AHA
2-7-9-15 NE BU-Mich-Merrimack-Union
3-6-11-14 East UML-OSU-Maine-Denver
4-5-12-13 Midw FSU-BC-ND-NMU

I'm guessing it is subjective to ship NMU to the East and Denver to the Midwest to avoid the first round match-up. Denver has to fly either way, but NMU is closer to Green Bay for attendance, plus having > four conference teams. I'm interested to see what Jason does. This preserves bracket integrity.
The only flip was the 9th and 10th teams in the 3rd seed band to prevent a first round intraconference match.
Click to expand...

Minnesota wins the 3-way tie by .0007 RPI over Merrimack and Miami finishes 10th even though they win the comparisons against both. Just love that.

However, because Ohio State wins the comparison against BC, they would be seeded 5th and BC 6th.

After breaking ties, I have the same bracket as before, except Minnesota is the 2 seed and Miami the 3.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

I love how UMD stayed number 1 despite having their worst weekend of the year
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Through Sunday's games:

1 Minn-Duluth (WC) 32 0.5620
2 Boston Univ (HE) 31 0.5611
3 Mass-Lowell (HE) 30 0.5584
4 Ferris State (CC) 28 0.5566
5 Boston Coll (HE) 26 0.5569
6 Merrimack (HE) 26 0.5539
7 Ohio State (CC) 26 0.5503
8 Michigan (CC) 25 0.5562
9 Minnesota (WC) 23 0.5513
10 Maine (HE) 22 0.5489
11 Miami (CC) 22 0.5426
12 Notre Dame (CC) 21 0.5481
13 Northern Mich (CC) 20 0.5478
14 Denver U (WC) 19 0.5361
15 Union (EC) 19 0.5303

Code: 
[B]Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul		Green Bay[/B]
Lowell		BU		Minn-Duluth		Ferris St
Merrimack	Ohio State	Michigan		Boston College
Miami		Maine		Minnesota		Notre Dame
Northern Mich	Union		AHA Champ		Denver

The only change is flipping NMU and Denver to avoid the CCHA game in the first round, but that's not mandatory given the 6 teams the CCHA gets into the tournament.

Just outside the top 15:
16 North Dakota (WC) 18 0.5378
17 CO College (WC) 16 0.5310
18 Western Mich (CC) 15 0.5331
19 Cornell (EC) 15 0.5311


And the TUC line:

Code: 
Bemidji State	0.5046
Michigan Tech	0.5039
RIT	        0.5031
Providence	0.5013
AK-Fairbanks	0.5005
---
St Cloud	0.4968
New Hampshire	0.4928
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

This is great work. I think NCAA hockey needs to eliminate or at least put on the back-burner, weekly polls after the end of January. Why? It's now all about PairWise and conference tournaments. A team ranked 10 may be 20 in the PairWise. Who cares about the media popularity contest when you have the PairWise for better or worse.
 
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