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2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

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Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

The good news for Lowell is that even if Providence becomes a TUC (has to make the Hockey East finals) they will still be #13 at worst. The worst case for Lowell is that there is a logjam of Miami, Michigan State, Western Michigan and Northern Michigan right around them, and all of them can't improve. In fact, either Michigan State or Miami will get dinged this weekend and Northern is sitting at home. Barring a worst-case scenario and at least two upsets in the conference tournaments, Lowell is in the field.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

1 Boston Coll (HE) 31
2 Minn-Duluth (WC) 29
3 Michigan (CC) 28
4 Ferris State (CC) 28
5 Mass-Lowell (HE) 27
6 Minnesota (WC) 25
7 Miami (CC) 25
8 Boston Univ (HE) 24
9 Maine (HE) 23
10 Union (EC) 22
11 North Dakota (WC) 21
12 Cornell (EC) 21
13 Denver U (WC) 20
14 Mich State (CC) 18
15 Western Mich (CC) 17
---
16 Northern Mich (CC) 16


Code: 
[B]
Bridgeport	Worcester	St. Paul	Green Bay[/B]
Ferris St	Boston C	Minn-Duluth 	Michigan
Lowell		Boston U	Minnesota	Miami
Cornell		Union		Maine		No Dakota
Denver		W Mich		Mich St		AHA Champ

Code: 
Niagara	0.5021
Yale	0.5010
---
UMass	0.4999
RIT	0.4952
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

And, the upper part of the PWR will be very volatile from here on out. A rudimentary calculation shows that, if BU sweeps the next 2 versus New Hampshire, UNH would have an RPI of .5001 at that point. How it would move would depend on many things, of course, but perhaps most, it would depend on the HE semi with BU. The reason this is important, is that UML was 2-1 vs NH, and BC was 3-0 vs UNH, so some comparisons might flip depending on UNH's TUC status. For one, right now, the UML/Minn comparison depends totally on that one factor.

I can't be positive, but I am fairly certain that right now, if UNH maintains TUC status, and BC wins this weekend's series, that BC would be guaranteed the overall #1...


EDIT: Sorry, I missed the obvious case of UMD winning the Broadmoor, and BC not winning HE's tourney. In which case, UMD would regain the compare with Minn, and would end up winning every compare, despite still not having as high a RPI as BC.
 
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Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

I'm not an expert on this, actually far from understanding it at all. All I know is the top 16 (minus autobids) from this get in, so hopefully I don't sound like a complete n00b with these questions.

1. How can Northern get in? They have no games left and it seems like MSU or WMU losing would just hurt them. They lost the season series to these teams and the losses would lower their SOS. Seems like a double whammy.
2. Where is Miami?
3. Does MSU need to win at least one more to secure a spot, one win one to stay alive? Can they lose tomorrow and still be in it?
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Spartanforlife4 said:
I'm not an expert on this, actually far from understanding it at all. All I know is the top 16 (minus autobids) from this get in, so hopefully I don't sound like a complete n00b with these questions.

1. How can Northern get in? They have no games left and it seems like MSU or WMU losing would just hurt them. They lost the season series to these teams and the losses would lower their SOS. Seems like a double whammy.
2. Where is Miami?
3. Does MSU need to win at least one more to secure a spot, one win one to stay alive? Can they lose tomorrow and still be in it?
Click to expand...

It'd take a minor miracle, but NMU can make it depending on what their past opponents do. Lowell dropped 2 spots by losing last night, and dropped 1 spot by WINNING tonight. I can't explain it; I'm not a PWR guru, but I did ask one, and he laid out what probably had to happen. It was rather complicated.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Brenthoven said:
It'd take a minor miracle, but NMU can make it depending on what their past opponents do. Lowell dropped 2 spots by losing last night, and dropped 1 spot by WINNING tonight. I can't explain it; I'm not a PWR guru, but I did ask one, and he laid out what probably had to happen. It was rather complicated.
Click to expand...

Huh? Lowell was 7th after last night's loss, they're 5th now after the win tonight. So...
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Spartanforlife4 said:
I'm not an expert on this, actually far from understanding it at all. All I know is the top 16 (minus autobids) from this get in, so hopefully I don't sound like a complete n00b with these questions.

1. How can Northern get in? They have no games left and it seems like MSU or WMU losing would just hurt them. They lost the season series to these teams and the losses would lower their SOS. Seems like a double whammy.
2. Where is Miami?
3. Does MSU need to win at least one more to secure a spot, one win one to stay alive? Can they lose tomorrow and still be in it?
Click to expand...

I will answer #3 first. I just did a real quick simulation in which all higher seeded teams won all remaining games, except I didn't bother with the AHA. So, that would have MSU losing tomorrow night. I ended up with MSU seeded 14th, and Western 15th. So, the obvious answer for Spartan fans is, root for the home team, unless they are playing MSU.

Now, #2: What do you mean by "Where is Miami?" If you mean, which region would they go to, the answer is: Way to early to know. If you mean, "How are their chances?" Pretty good right now.

And, now to #1. The simplest way for NoMich to qualify would be: Lake Superior beats Western 2 games in a row, lowering Western's RPI to below that of NoMich, and turning that comparison. Following that, there are probably many things that have to happen: easiest of them would be again, all higher seeded teams win in every game.

Obviously, this "Higher seed wins" business doesn't hold true, but it is the easiest to describe...
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Patronick said:
Huh? Lowell was 7th after last night's loss, they're 5th now after the win tonight. So...
Click to expand...

No, in the PWR, according to FSN, they were 2, dropped to 4, and now they are 5th. They could be wrong, I suppose.....
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Numbers said:
Now, #2: What do you mean by "Where is Miami?" If you mean, which region would they go to, the answer is: Way to early to know. If you mean, "How are their chances?" Pretty good right now.
Click to expand...

I mean where are they in the PWR. I keep hearing if they win the series against MSU they're in, but I find it odd they aren't even shown when they are a game away from completing that.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

I would like to throw this out for CCHA fans:

Take a close look at the NCAA bubble: From #14 to #20 is 7 places. Right now, 5 of those are CCHA teams. What that means is, without a bunch of surprising upsets to give auto-bids to unlikely teams, that your conference is likely to fill the bubble. But, also to affect one another lots. I mean lots. A little more detail: It would take an extreme circumstance for CC to make the field without winning the WCHA playoffs. Probably the same could be said for Lake. So, now, in my mind I reduce the bubble to #14 - # 18. Lake's influence is going to be: how much can they destroy Western's chances? Notre Dame needs to win 2 against Michigan and go from there (almost got one tonight). And, so on. The only ??? in the bubble is really: What will Merrimack do? If they lose to Maine again tomorrow night, they will be all but out (and maybe, out!). Then, the bubble comes down to MichState, WestMich, NoMich, and upsets in the conf tourneys.

Anyone want to know anything more specific?
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Spartanforlife4 said:
I mean where are they in the PWR. I keep hearing if they win the series against MSU they're in, but I find it odd they aren't even shown when they are a game away from completing that.
Click to expand...

Sorry, I misunderstood. Tonight they are tied at #6 in the PWR with Minnesota, and lose the tiebreaker, so #7.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Brenthoven said:
No, in the PWR, according to FSN, they were 2, dropped to 4, and now they are 5th. They could be wrong, I suppose.....
Click to expand...

Rule of thumb... the (TV) media knows more than us on some injuries and some inside stories.

But generally, we know more than most of the (TV) media... and further on things of technical details we know A LOT more than the media.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Numbers said:
Sorry, I misunderstood. Tonight they are tied at #6 in the PWR with Minnesota, and lose the tiebreaker, so #7.
Click to expand...

Nevermind, I'm just stupid. The way people were talking on an MSU message board they made it sound like Miami was on the bubble, so I didn't even look past #10 for them.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Patman said:
Rule of thumb... the (TV) media knows more than us on some injuries and some inside stories.

But generally, we know more than most of the (TV) media... and further on things of technical details we know A LOT more than the media.
Click to expand...

The talking head on between periods of the Maine-Merrimack game said PWR meant "power rankings". You would think in the 20+ years Tim Throckmorton has been covering Maine hockey some of this might have accidentally seeped into his brain, but no.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Priceless said:
The talking head on between periods of the Maine-Merrimack game said PWR meant "power rankings". You would think in the 20+ years Tim Throckmorton has been covering Maine hockey some of this might have accidentally seeped into his brain, but no.
Click to expand...

he learned that PWR meant "power ranking" from Craig Janney:rolleyes:
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Yupe1228 said:
What are BU's chances for a bid if they lose tonight?
Click to expand...
Still good, but if they lose and all home teams/favorites win tonight they'd be #11 (t9) and they'd be susceptible to falling out next weekend. After the Hockey East final I project them at #13 with four CCHA teams right behind them, so they are far from safe. Conference upsets could hurt them as well if the cut line moves up from 15th.
Short of winning, BU needs Michigan and Miami to take care of business tonight and they will be in a very strong position.
 
Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

So as the highest 4th seed bu would get the worst 1 seed, or the ccha 1 seed if there are multiple ccha teams also seeded in a 4.

All this means is anyplace sans Worcester is in play
 
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